Vistra Corp. (VST) earnings on May 8, 2026
Prior outlook: Pessimistic Outcome: Accurate
The stock opened up but fell sharply during the day, closing down 4%. Analysts had been optimistic about the company, but the stock declined anyway.
VST price around the earnings
147.70
Change: -4.1%
2026-05-08, 19:59 UTC
- Price: green if it ends above the starting price; red if it ends below
- Start of the measured window
- Market open
- Starting price
Prior thesis
Prior outlook: Pessimistic Outcome: Accurate
- Thesis published
Strong analyst optimism, but past performance and recent weakness suggest caution.
Analysts are very optimistic about this stock, expecting significant price increases. However, the company has a history of not meeting earnings expectations and has recently seen its price fall.
Context analyzed before publication
- Summary
- Strong analyst optimism, but past performance and recent weakness suggest caution.
- Reasoning
- Analysts are very optimistic about this stock, citing an optimistic scenario. However, the company has a history of not meeting earnings expectations and has recently seen its price fall.
- Playbook
- The strong analyst targets are weighed against the company's earnings misses and recent price drops. The scenario suggests waiting for clearer positive contexts before investing.
- Trend
- Mixed contexts after a recent price drop.
Analysts
Drivers
-
Analysts
Positive
Analysts overwhelmingly recommend buying the stock. Their price targets point to an optimistic scenario.
Evidence
- Analyst consensus
- Strong buy
- Consensus average (1-5)
- 1.4
- Analysts covering the stock
- 19
- Average price target
- 228.16
- Lowest price target
- 97
- Highest price target
- 323
- Upside to price target
- 43.4%
- Quarterly earnings growth
- -47.2%
- Revenue growth
- 13.6%
- Forward EPS
- 11.34
- Trailing EPS
- 2.18
- Analyst moves in the last 60 days
- 3
- Strong buy: 4
- Buy: 15
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 1
- Strong sell: 0
- Strong buy
- 4
- Buy
- 15
- Hold
- 0
- Sell
- 1
- Strong sell
- 0
- May 4, 2026 · TD Cowen: Maintains rating (Buy → Buy)
- April 30, 2026 · JP Morgan: Maintains rating (Overweight → Overweight)
- March 19, 2026 · JP Morgan: Maintains rating (Overweight → Overweight)
News and sentiment
Drivers
-
News & sentiment
Neutral
While analysts still recommend buying, some have reduced their price targets. This indicates a mixed outlook despite overall positive ratings.
Evidence
Sentiment
- Sentiment
- Constructive
- Mention volume
- Low
- Normalized volume
- 33%
News
Sources (5)
- TD Cowen Maintains Buy on Vistra, Lowers Price Target to $230 — Benzinga
- JP Morgan Maintains Overweight on Vistra, Lowers Price Target to $231 — Benzinga
- Here's How Much $100 Invested In Vistra 5 Years Ago Would Be Worth Today — Benzinga
- Live On CNBC, Bill Baruch Announces Bought Cadence Design Systems; Bought Vistra; Bought Eaton — Benzinga
- $1000 Invested In Vistra 5 Years Ago Would Be Worth This Much Today — Benzinga
Technicals
Drivers
-
Technical
Negative
The stock has recently performed worse than the broader market. Its price trend is currently weak compared to the S&P 500.
Evidence
- Average true range (ATR)
- 3.8%
- Distance to 52-week high
- -27.6%
- 14-day change (14d)
- -2.7%
- 30-day change
- +5.0%
- 30-day relative strength
- -7.0%
- Benchmark change
- +12.0%
- Nearest support
- 142.64
- Nearest resistance
- 168.42
- Volume accumulation ratio
- 0.78
Trends
Evidence
- Average earnings surprise
- -41.2%
- February 27, 2026: actual EPS 0.54 vs estimate 2.3 (surprise -76.5%)
- November 7, 2025: actual EPS 1.75 vs estimate 1.96 (surprise -10.5%)
- August 8, 2025: actual EPS 0.81 vs estimate 1 (surprise -19.4%)
- May 8, 2025: actual EPS 0.32 vs estimate 0.78 (surprise -58.4%)
Expected move
Drivers
-
Past earnings
Negative
The company has consistently failed to meet earnings expectations. Its past performance shows a pattern of underperformance.
There is no implied-move data available for this event.
Reactions over its last 19 earnings
- Median move
- 2.7%
- 75th percentile move
- 4.1%
- 90th percentile move
- 4.8%
- Up / down moves
- 12 / 7
- Average up move
- +3.2%
- Average down move
- -1.8%
Monitoring and close
What Vistra Corp. reported
There is no monitoring data available for this event.
Pre-market second reading after the results
There is no second reading available for this event.
How the stock reacted
- Outcome
- Accurate
- Consolidated
- -4.1%
- Max favorable move (MFE)
- 4.6%
- Max adverse move (MAE)
- 1.8%