Archive methodology
How to read this archive
- Closed events: the ones that already have their outlook published and their review done.
- Open archive: the review after the fact, so you can see what held up.
- Optimistic, pessimistic and thin-context outlooks: not every event arrives with the same level of context.
- No gloss: misses stay visible too.
What the table shows:
- Event: the company, the date and the direction of the outlook.
- Outlook: whether it turned out accurate, partial or missed.
- High and Low: the largest rise and the largest fall in the price after the announcement.
- Close: how far the price had moved by the close.
Important: this is context and historical review, not operational guidance.
Across the whole archive, what was published before each event shows 70.6% accurate outlooks over a sample of 568 events, with a 95% Wilson confidence interval running from 66.7% to 74.2%. Figures as of .
The misses are inside that percentage: it is worked out with the outlooks that went wrong included, and the archive can be checked event by event.
How the % of accurate outlooks is calculated
How each outlook is classified:
- Accurate: the asset moves more than 1% in the anticipated direction between the announcement and the close of the following session.
- Partial: the asset moves more than 1% in the anticipated direction but then reverses, between the announcement and the close of the following session.
- Missed: the asset does not reach 1% in the anticipated direction between the announcement and the close of the following session; that does not mean it moved the other way.
Accurate means the price moved in the anticipated direction, not that anyone made money. The archive keeps no tally of gains or losses.