Vistra Corp. (VST) earnings on August 7, 2026

Before the market opens Q2 2026

More Vistra Corp. earnings

Prior outlook: Pessimistic Outcome: Partial

Vistra's stock moved in a mixed direction after reporting earnings. It jumped as high as 3.5% during the day but ended slightly lower amid news about its Helix partnership and power demand outlook.

VST price around the earnings

140.59

Change: -0.5%

2026-08-07, 20:00 UTC

Start of the measured window End of the measured window
135.42 138.98 142.55 146.11 141.31
Price series around the eventClosing price per minute from before the event to the end of the measured window.
August 7, 2026
  • Price: green if it ends above the starting price; red if it ends below
  • Start of the measured window
  • End of the measured window
  • Market open
  • Starting price
Price series around the event

Prior thesis

Prior outlook: Pessimistic Outcome: Partial

Thesis published
Results released

High risk; the scenario is pessimistic

Analysts are very optimistic about the price target, but the stock has been in a sharp downtrend and past earnings have been poor, so the risk is high.

Context analyzed before publication

Summary
High risk; the scenario is pessimistic
Playbook
The stock has dropped significantly over the past two weeks, underperforming the market, and is near a support level. Analyst targets are far above the current price, but the recent trend is strongly negative.
Trend
Expert sentiment improving slightly from lows

Analysts

Drivers

  • Analysts Positive

    Analysts rate it a strong buy, with a price target of $223, citing about 57% above the current price.

Evidence

Analyst consensus
Strong buy
Consensus average (1-5)
1.35
Analysts covering the stock
19
Average price target
222.74
Lowest price target
106
Highest price target
313
Upside to price target
57.5%
Revenue growth
43.4%
Forward EPS
10.34
Trailing EPS
6.01
Analyst moves in the last 60 days
4
  • Strong buy: 4
  • Buy: 15
  • Hold: 0
  • Sell: 0
  • Strong sell: 1
Strong buy
4
Buy
15
Hold
0
Sell
0
Strong sell
1
  • July 28, 2026 · UBS: Maintains rating (Buy → Buy)
  • July 28, 2026 · Morgan Stanley: Maintains rating (Overweight → Overweight)
  • July 27, 2026 · TD Cowen: Maintains rating (Buy → Buy)
  • July 15, 2026 · Scotiabank: Maintains rating (Sector Outperform → Sector Outperform)

News and sentiment

Evidence

Sentiment
Sentiment
Neutral
Mention volume
High
Normalized volume
99%
News
Sources (8)

Technicals

Drivers

  • Technical Negative

    The stock's trend is very weak, falling about 16% over the past two weeks and underperforming the market by 12%. It is approaching support at $141.

Evidence

Price when the context was analyzed
141.32
Average true range (ATR)
5.2%
Distance to 52-week high
-34.9%
14-day change (14d)
-16.4%
30-day change (30d)
-9.3%
30-day relative strength
-12.1%
SPY change (30d)
+2.8%
Nearest support
141
Distance to nearest support
0.2%
Nearest resistance
143.03
Distance to nearest resistance
1.2%
Volume accumulation ratio (14d / 46d)
1.24
  • Mid: 141 (0.2% away, 0.04 ATR, 12 touches)
  • Mid: 140.19 (0.8% away, 0.15 ATR, 12 touches)
  • Mid: 139.29 (1.4% away, 0.28 ATR, 14 touches)
  • Mid: 143.03 (1.2% away, 0.23 ATR, 18 touches)
  • Mid: 144.83 (2.5% away, 0.48 ATR, 14 touches)
  • Mid: 146.89 (4% away, 0.76 ATR, 15 touches)

Trends

Evidence

Average earnings surprise
-14.2%
  • May 8, 2026: actual EPS 2.87 vs estimate 1.87 (surprise +53.4%)
  • February 27, 2026: actual EPS 0.54 vs estimate 2.3 (surprise -76.5%)
  • November 7, 2025: actual EPS 1.38 vs estimate 1.4 (surprise -1.3%)
  • August 8, 2025: actual EPS 0.71 vs estimate 1.05 (surprise -32.5%)

Expected move

Drivers

  • Past earnings Negative

    The company has beaten earnings expectations only 25% of the time, with an average surprise of -14.2%, indicating poor historical performance.

Implied move
+0.0%
Source
Options chain

Reactions over its last 20 earnings

Median move
2.8%
75th percentile move
4.1%
90th percentile move
4.8%
Up / down moves
12 / 8
Average up move
+3.2%
Average down move
-2.1%

Monitoring and close

What Vistra Corp. reported

Status
Finished
Actual EPS0.91
EPS estimate1.7
EPS surprise-46.5%

Vistra reported pessimistic results but highlighted power demand growth beyond AI data centers. It reaffirmed its 2026 outlook.

Sources (11)

Pre-market second reading after the results

Verdict
Missed expectations

Heading into the open, results came in below expectations and the price is indicating -1.3% pre-market, a move below the stock's usual reaction (about 3%). The figures confirm the pessimistic scenario. In the 1,609 similar past cases, the close held that direction 75% of the time.

How the stock reacted

Outcome
Partial
Consolidated
-0.5%
Max favorable move (MFE)
4.7%
Max adverse move (MAE)
3.5%