Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) earnings on July 30, 2026
More Valero Energy Corporation earnings
Prior outlook: Pessimistic Outcome: Partial
Valero Energy crushed profit and sales expectations, and the stock climbed steadily throughout the day.
VLO price around the earnings
311.71
Change: +3.4%
2026-07-30, 20:00 UTC
Start of the measured window
End of the measured window
288.62
296.88
305.14
313.40
301.32
July 30, 2026
- Price: green if it ends above the starting price; red if it ends below
- Start of the measured window
- End of the measured window
- Market open
- Starting price
Prior thesis
Prior outlook: Pessimistic Outcome: Partial
- Thesis published
- Results released
Exceptional earnings history and strong growth, but analyst target implies downside with high sell-the-news risk.
Context analyzed before publication
- Trend
- Massive 30-day rally with strong relative strength, but recent scores indicate significant sell-the-news risk.
Analysts
Evidence
- Analyst consensus
- Buy
- Consensus average (1-5)
- 2.4
- Analysts covering the stock
- 19
- Average price target
- 289.63
- Lowest price target
- 190
- Highest price target
- 357
- Upside to price target
- -3.9%
- Revenue growth
- 6.6%
- Forward EPS
- 25.11
- Trailing EPS
- 13.69
- Analyst moves in the last 60 days
- 8
- Strong buy: 3
- Buy: 7
- Hold: 7
- Sell: 2
- Strong sell: 1
- Strong buy
- 3
- Buy
- 7
- Hold
- 7
- Sell
- 2
- Strong sell
- 1
- July 22, 2026 · Goldman Sachs: Maintains rating (Buy → Buy)
- July 21, 2026 · TD Cowen: Maintains rating (Hold → Hold)
- July 14, 2026 · Citigroup: Maintains rating (Neutral → Neutral)
- July 13, 2026 · Evercore ISI Group: Maintains rating (In-Line → In-Line)
- July 13, 2026 · Raymond James: Maintains rating (Strong Buy → Strong Buy)
- July 1, 2026 · Barclays: Maintains rating (Overweight → Overweight)
- June 29, 2026 · TD Cowen: Maintains rating (Hold → Hold)
- June 12, 2026 · Morgan Stanley: Maintains rating (Equal-Weight → Equal-Weight)
News and sentiment
Evidence
Sentiment
- Sentiment
- Constructive
- Mention volume
- Low
- Normalized volume
- 33%
News
Sources (7)
- Piper Sandler Assumes Valero Energy at Overweight, Announces Price Target of $329 (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga
- Goldman Sachs Maintains Buy on Valero Energy, Raises Price Target to $357 (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga
- TD Cowen Maintains Hold on Valero Energy, Raises Price Target to $338 (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga
- Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Valero Energy And More On CNBC’s ‘Final Trades’ (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga
- CNBC Halftime Report Final Trades: Morgan Stanley, The Goldman Sachs Group, Valero Energy, iShares U.S. Energy ETF (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga
- Oil Is Trapped At Hormuz: These 3 Refiner Stocks Are Cashing In (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga
- Here’s How Much You Would Have Made Owning Valero Energy Stock In The Last 10 Years (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga
Technicals
Evidence
- Price when the context was analyzed
- 302.33
- Average true range (ATR)
- 3.3%
- Distance to 52-week high
- -4.3%
- 14-day change (14d)
- +3.3%
- 30-day change (30d)
- +13.4%
- 30-day relative strength
- +14.9%
- SPY change (30d)
- -1.5%
- Nearest support
- 300.93
- Distance to nearest support
- 0.5%
- Nearest resistance
- 304.04
- Distance to nearest resistance
- 0.6%
- Volume accumulation ratio (14d / 46d)
- 1.01
- Mid: 300.93 (0.5% away, 0.14 ATR, 15 touches)
- Mid: 298.47 (1.3% away, 0.39 ATR, 12 touches)
- Mid: 294.34 (2.6% away, 0.8 ATR, 5 touches)
- Minor: 304.04 (0.6% away, 0.17 ATR, 8 touches)
- Mid: 306.48 (1.4% away, 0.41 ATR, 10 touches)
- Minor: 308.7 (2.1% away, 0.64 ATR, 8 touches)
Trends
Evidence
- Average earnings surprise
- +24.8%
- April 30, 2026: actual EPS 4.22 vs estimate 3.16 (surprise +33.5%)
- January 29, 2026: actual EPS 3.82 vs estimate 3.27 (surprise +16.9%)
- October 23, 2025: actual EPS 3.66 vs estimate 3.05 (surprise +19.9%)
- July 24, 2025: actual EPS 2.28 vs estimate 1.77 (surprise +29.1%)
Expected move
- Implied move
- +5.3%
- Source
- Options chain
Reactions over its last 20 earnings
- Median move
- 1.5%
- 75th percentile move
- 3.5%
- 90th percentile move
- 5%
- Up / down moves
- 8 / 12
- Average up move
- +3.3%
- Average down move
- -1.5%
Monitoring and close
What Valero Energy Corporation reported
- Status
- Finished
| Actual EPS | 12.54 |
|---|---|
| EPS estimate | 10.12 |
| EPS surprise | +23.9% |
| Revenue | $44,476 million |
| Revenue estimate | $39,059 million |
| Revenue surprise | +13.9% |
Valero beats Q2 earnings and revenue estimates. Stock surges 29% pre-market on strong fuel demand and refining results.
Sources (9)
- Valero Energy: Capitalizing On The Oil-To-Silver Grid As M2 Expansions Unwind (opens in a new tab) — SeekingAlpha
- Valero Energy (VLO) Beats Q2 Earnings and Revenue Estimates (opens in a new tab) — Zacks
- Valero Energy (NYSE:VLO) Surges on Q2 Earnings Blowout, Crushing Estimates (opens in a new tab) — ChartMill
- Valero Profit Soars on Major Revenue Gains (opens in a new tab) — The Wall Street Journal
- Valero Energy beat expectations with adjusted EPS of $12.54 versus $10.12 estimate, and revenue of $44.476B topping $39.059B. — Benzinga
- Valero Energy Q2 Adj. EPS $12.54 Beats $10.12 Estimate, Sales $44.476B Beat $39.059B Estimate (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga
- Valero Energy Reports Second Quarter 2026 Results (opens in a new tab) — Yahoo
- Zacks Industry Outlook Highlights Delek US, PBF Energy and Valero Energy (opens in a new tab) — Zacks
- Tech Earnings, Central Bank Decisions: What to Watch the Rest of the Week (opens in a new tab) — The Wall Street Journal
Pre-market second reading after the results
- Verdict
- Beat expectations
Heading into the open, results beat expectations on both earnings and revenue, and the price is indicating -1.4% pre-market, a move in line with the stock's usual reaction (about 1%). The figures don't confirm the prior scenario: the price move doesn't follow the direction the results point to.
How the stock reacted
- Outcome
- Partial
- Consolidated
- +3.5%
- Max favorable move (MFE)
- 4.2%
- Max adverse move (MAE)
- 4.1%