TransDigm Group Incorporated (TDG) earnings on August 4, 2026

Before the market opens Q2 2026

More TransDigm Group Incorporated earnings

Prior outlook: Optimistic Outcome: Partial

The stock jumped as much as 5.7% during the day but closed 0.8% lower. An acquisition announcement and an analyst downgrade left mixed contexts for investors.

TDG price around the earnings

1275.05

Change: -0.8%

2026-08-04, 20:00 UTC

End of the measured window
1235.63 1276.65 1317.66 1358.68 1285.56
Price series around the eventClosing price per minute from before the event to the end of the measured window.
August 4, 2026
  • Price: green if it ends above the starting price; red if it ends below
  • End of the measured window
  • Market open
  • Starting price
Price series around the event

Prior thesis

Prior outlook: Optimistic Outcome: Partial

Thesis published
Results released

Optimistic outlook — acquisition and analyst support

Experts are optimistic because of a strong analyst price target and a positive acquisition announcement, but the stock's recent trend is weak and there was a downgrade. The positive news and analyst support outweigh the technical weakness.

Context analyzed before publication

Summary
Optimistic outlook — acquisition and analyst support
Playbook
The stock has been volatile, with a recent downgrade and negative trend, but the acquisition news and analyst targets provide a positive backdrop. The price has crossed into positive territory recently.
Trend
Expert opinion improved from negative to positive

Analysts

Drivers

  • Analysts Negative

    Morgan Stanley recently downgraded TDG to Equal-Weight, introducing some caution despite overall optimistic sentiment.

Evidence

Analyst consensus
Buy
Consensus average (1-5)
1.91
Analysts covering the stock
20
Average price target
1,511.95
Lowest price target
1,200
Highest price target
1,937
Upside to price target
17.6%
Quarterly earnings growth
11.7%
Revenue growth
18.3%
Forward EPS
47.01
Trailing EPS
31.99
Analyst moves in the last 60 days
2
  • Strong buy: 2
  • Buy: 11
  • Hold: 9
  • Sell: 0
  • Strong sell: 0
Strong buy
2
Buy
11
Hold
9
Sell
0
Strong sell
0
  • July 15, 2026 · Morgan Stanley: Downgrades rating (Overweight → Equal-Weight)
  • July 2, 2026 · BMO Capital: Maintains rating (Outperform → Outperform)

News and sentiment

Drivers

  • News & sentiment Positive

    TransDigm Group announced an agreement to acquire Prince & Izant for approximately $1.066 billion, a positive catalyst.

Evidence

Sentiment
Sentiment
Constructive
Mention volume
High
Normalized volume
99%
News
Sources (4)

Technicals

Drivers

  • Technical Negative

    The stock shows negative recent trend strength (-4.81%) and very weak relative strength vs SPY (-6.54%).

Evidence

Price when the context was analyzed
1,284.86
Average true range (ATR)
2.6%
Distance to 52-week high
-16.7%
14-day change (14d)
+6.7%
30-day change (32d)
-4.8%
30-day relative strength
-6.5%
SPY change (32d)
+1.7%
Nearest support
1,280.22
Distance to nearest support
0.4%
Nearest resistance
1,303.04
Distance to nearest resistance
1.4%
Volume accumulation ratio (14d / 46d)
1.04
  • Major: 1,280.22 (0.4% away, 0.14 ATR, 73 touches)
  • Major: 1,264.33 (1.6% away, 0.62 ATR, 42 touches)
  • Major: 1,249.58 (2.8% away, 1.07 ATR, 51 touches)
  • Major: 1,303.04 (1.4% away, 0.55 ATR, 65 touches)
  • Major: 1,318.65 (2.6% away, 1.02 ATR, 69 touches)
  • Major: 1,335.85 (4% away, 1.54 ATR, 72 touches)

Trends

Evidence

Average earnings surprise
+2.8%
  • May 5, 2026: actual EPS 9.85 vs estimate 9.47 (surprise +4.0%)
  • February 3, 2026: actual EPS 8.23 vs estimate 8.04 (surprise +2.4%)
  • November 12, 2025: actual EPS 10.82 vs estimate 10.05 (surprise +7.6%)
  • August 5, 2025: actual EPS 9.6 vs estimate 9.9 (surprise -3.0%)

Expected move

Implied move
+2.3%
Source
Options chain

Reactions over its last 20 earnings

Median move
3.3%
75th percentile move
4.9%
90th percentile move
9.3%
Up / down moves
11 / 9
Average up move
+3.7%
Average down move
-4.5%

Monitoring and close

What TransDigm Group Incorporated reported

Status
Finished
Actual EPS10.87
EPS estimate10.3
EPS surprise+5.5%
Revenue$2,741 million
Revenue estimate$2,676 million
Revenue surprise+2.4%

TransDigm beat Q3 2026 expectations, with earnings and revenue above estimates. The full-year outlook remains optimistic.

Sources (10)

Pre-market second reading after the results

Verdict
Beat expectations

Heading into the open, results beat expectations on both earnings and revenue, and the price is indicating +3.0% pre-market, a move in line with the stock's usual reaction (about 3%). The figures confirm the optimistic scenario. Across our market history, in the 1,275 similar cases the close held that direction 86% of the time.

How the stock reacted

Outcome
Partial
Consolidated
-0.8%
Max favorable move (MFE)
5.7%
Max adverse move (MAE)
4%