Smurfit Westrock Plc (SW) earnings on July 29, 2026
More Smurfit Westrock Plc earnings
Prior outlook: Pessimistic Outcome: Accurate
SW fell 5% after its earnings report. The stock dropped as much as 7.7% during the day.
SW price around the earnings
48.26
Change: -5.0%
2026-07-29, 20:00 UTC
Start of the measured window
End of the measured window
47.00
48.27
49.53
50.80
50.80
July 29, 2026
- Price: green if it ends above the starting price; red if it ends below
- Start of the measured window
- End of the measured window
- Market open
- Starting price
Prior thesis
Prior outlook: Pessimistic Outcome: Accurate
- Thesis published
- Results released
0% beat rate and -23.5% avg miss vs strong buy rating—extreme execution gap, analysts ignoring deteriorating company numbers.
Context analyzed before publication
- Trend
- Consistent pessimistic setup (-79 to -100 range) stabilizing at -70; trend strength masks fundamental deterioration.
Analysts
Evidence
- Analyst consensus
- Strong buy
- Consensus average (1-5)
- 1.31
- Analysts covering the stock
- 15
- Average price target
- 55.57
- Lowest price target
- 46
- Highest price target
- 71
- Upside to price target
- 9.4%
- Quarterly earnings growth
- -83.1%
- Revenue growth
- 0.7%
- Forward EPS
- 3.39
- Trailing EPS
- 0.73
- Analyst moves in the last 60 days
- 7
- Strong buy: 5
- Buy: 11
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 0
- Strong sell: 0
- Strong buy
- 5
- Buy
- 11
- Hold
- 0
- Sell
- 0
- Strong sell
- 0
- July 28, 2026 · JP Morgan: Maintains rating (Overweight → Overweight)
- July 17, 2026 · RBC Capital: Maintains rating (Outperform → Outperform)
- July 15, 2026 · Truist Securities: Maintains rating (Buy → Buy)
- July 9, 2026 · Citigroup: Maintains rating (Buy → Buy)
- July 9, 2026 · JP Morgan: Maintains rating (Overweight → Overweight)
- July 9, 2026 · Wells Fargo: Maintains rating (Overweight → Overweight)
- June 23, 2026 · Deutsche Bank: Initiates coverage (Buy)
News and sentiment
Evidence
Sentiment
- Sentiment
- Constructive
- Mention volume
- Low
- Normalized volume
- 33%
News
Sources (6)
- JP Morgan Maintains Overweight on Smurfit WestRock, Raises Price Target to $71 (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga
- RBC Capital Maintains Outperform on Smurfit WestRock, Raises Price Target to $56 (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga
- Truist Securities Maintains Buy on Smurfit WestRock, Raises Price Target to $55 (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga
- Citigroup Maintains Buy on Smurfit WestRock, Raises Price Target to $56 (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga
- JP Morgan Maintains Overweight on Smurfit WestRock, Raises Price Target to $65 (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga
- Wells Fargo Maintains Overweight on Smurfit WestRock, Raises Price Target to $52 (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga
Technicals
Evidence
- Price when the context was analyzed
- 50.79
- Average true range (ATR)
- 4%
- Distance to 52-week high
- -2.3%
- 14-day change (14d)
- +18.4%
- 30-day change (32d)
- +8.1%
- 30-day relative strength
- +6.5%
- SPY change (32d)
- +1.6%
- Nearest support
- 50.05
- Distance to nearest support
- 1.5%
- Nearest resistance
- 50.93
- Distance to nearest resistance
- 0.3%
- Volume accumulation ratio (14d / 46d)
- 1.05
- Mid: 50.05 (1.5% away, 0.36 ATR, 10 touches)
- Mid: 49.41 (2.7% away, 0.68 ATR, 11 touches)
- Mid: 48.69 (4.1% away, 1.03 ATR, 6 touches)
- Mid: 50.93 (0.3% away, 0.07 ATR, 10 touches)
- Minor: 51.32 (1% away, 0.26 ATR, 9 touches)
- Major: 52.03 (2.4% away, 0.61 ATR, 27 touches)
Trends
Evidence
- Average earnings surprise
- -23.5%
- April 30, 2026: actual EPS 0.33 vs estimate 0.4 (surprise -17.4%)
- February 11, 2026: actual EPS 0.28 vs estimate 0.5 (surprise -43.0%)
- October 29, 2025: actual EPS 0.58 vs estimate 0.72 (surprise -19.8%)
- July 30, 2025: actual EPS 0.51 vs estimate 0.59 (surprise -13.9%)
Expected move
- Implied move
- +3.0%
- Source
- Options chain
There is no history of past earnings reactions available for this asset.
Monitoring and close
What Smurfit Westrock Plc reported
- Status
- Finished
| Actual EPS | 0.35 |
|---|---|
| EPS estimate | 0.42 |
| EPS surprise | -16.7% |
| Revenue | $8,031 million |
| Revenue estimate | $7,918 million |
| Revenue surprise | +1.4% |
Smurfit WestRock posted $8.03B in revenue, up 1.1%, with adjusted EBITDA under pressure. Analysts maintain a Buy rating, seeing a stronger 2027 earnings opportunity despite guidance cuts.
Sources (12)
- Smurfit WestRock PLC (SW) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Highlights: Strong EBITDA Amidst Freight Cost ... (opens in a new tab) — GuruFocus.com
- Smurfit Westrock: Guidance Cuts Masks A Stronger 2027 Earnings Opportunity (opens in a new tab) — SeekingAlpha
- SW Q2 Earnings Miss Estimates on Higher Freight Costs, Sales Beat (opens in a new tab) — Zacks
- Compared to Estimates, Smurfit Westrock (SW) Q2 Earnings: A Look at Key Metrics (opens in a new tab) — Zacks
- Smurfit Westrock nearly sold out of most grades in ‘tight’ paper market (opens in a new tab) — Packaging Dive
- Smurfit Westrock (SW) Q2 Earnings Miss Estimates (opens in a new tab) — Zacks
- Smurfit Westrock Plc (SW) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript (opens in a new tab) — SeekingAlpha
- Smurfit WestRock (NYSE:SW) Slides After Q2 Earnings Miss (opens in a new tab) — ChartMill
- Smurfit WestRock reported adjusted earnings of $0.35 per share, missing the $0.42 estimate, but revenue of $8.031B beat the $7.918B estimate. — Benzinga
- Smurfit WestRock Q2 Adj. EPS $0.35 Misses $0.42 Estimate, Sales $8.031B Beat $7.918B Estimate (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga
- Smurfit Westrock Reports Second Quarter 2026 Results (opens in a new tab) — Yahoo
- Smurfit Westrock Plc 2026 Q2 - Results - Earnings Call Presentation (opens in a new tab) — SeekingAlpha
Pre-market second reading after the results
- Verdict
- Missed expectations
Heading into the open, the figures confirm the pessimistic scenario. In the 1266 past cases with a similar move, the close held that direction 86% of the time.
How the stock reacted
- Outcome
- Accurate
- Consolidated
- -5.0%
- Max favorable move (MFE)
- 7.7%
- Max adverse move (MAE)
- 0%