NRG Energy, Inc. (NRG) earnings on August 4, 2026

Before the market opens Q2 2026

More NRG Energy, Inc. earnings

Prior outlook: Optimistic Outcome: Missed

The stock dropped sharply despite positive expectations, falling as much as 18.75% and ending down 15.48%. This was a significant disappointment compared to what investors were hoping for.

NRG price around the earnings

117.04

Change: -15.5%

2026-08-04, 20:00 UTC

End of the measured window
112.93 122.95 132.98 143.00 138.47
Price series around the eventClosing price per minute from before the event to the end of the measured window.
August 4, 2026
  • Price: green if it ends above the starting price; red if it ends below
  • End of the measured window
  • Market open
  • Starting price
Price series around the event

Prior thesis

Prior outlook: Optimistic Outcome: Missed

Thesis published
Results released

Optimistic outlook, the scenario is optimistic.

Analysts cite a big upside (about 42%) and a strong history of beating expectations, but the recent quarterly miss and weak price trend are concerns. The positive analyst view is the main driver, outweighing the cautious market sentiment.

Context analyzed before publication

Summary
Optimistic outlook, the scenario is optimistic.
Playbook
The stock has been rising recently, but it's now at a high point after a strong run. The market's mood is cautious, yet analysts' forecasts are the dominant force.
Trend
Analyst confidence jumped sharply over five days

Analysts

Drivers

  • Analysts Positive

    The average price target is $197, and most analysts rate it a buy. Even after a recent miss, they remain confident in future earnings recovery.

Evidence

Analyst consensus
Buy
Consensus average (1-5)
1.59
Analysts covering the stock
17
Average price target
197
Lowest price target
104
Highest price target
267
Upside to price target
42.3%
Quarterly earnings growth
-83.3%
Revenue growth
19.5%
Forward EPS
11.5
Trailing EPS
0.91
Analyst moves in the last 60 days
5
  • Strong buy: 3
  • Buy: 11
  • Hold: 2
  • Sell: 0
  • Strong sell: 1
Strong buy
3
Buy
11
Hold
2
Sell
0
Strong sell
1
  • July 28, 2026 · UBS: Maintains rating (Buy → Buy)
  • July 28, 2026 · BMO Capital: Maintains rating (Market Perform → Market Perform)
  • July 28, 2026 · Barclays: Maintains rating (Overweight → Overweight)
  • July 16, 2026 · Wells Fargo: Maintains rating (Overweight → Overweight)
  • July 15, 2026 · Scotiabank: Maintains rating (Sector Outperform → Sector Outperform)

News and sentiment

Evidence

Sentiment
Sentiment
Constructive
Mention volume
High
Normalized volume
99%
News
Sources (5)

Technicals

Drivers

  • Technical Neutral

    The stock's short-term trend is positive, but it has underperformed the broader market over the past month. The rapid rise may mean it's temporarily overextended.

Evidence

Price when the context was analyzed
138.46
Average true range (ATR)
4.8%
Distance to 52-week high
-26.8%
14-day change (14d)
+6.0%
30-day change (32d)
+1.3%
30-day relative strength
-0.5%
SPY change (32d)
+1.7%
Nearest support
137.98
Distance to nearest support
0.4%
Nearest resistance
140.32
Distance to nearest resistance
1.3%
Volume accumulation ratio (14d / 46d)
0.88
  • Mid: 137.98 (0.4% away, 0.07 ATR, 24 touches)
  • Mid: 136.77 (1.2% away, 0.26 ATR, 23 touches)
  • Mid: 135.38 (2.2% away, 0.47 ATR, 25 touches)
  • Mid: 140.32 (1.3% away, 0.28 ATR, 26 touches)
  • Mid: 141.74 (2.4% away, 0.5 ATR, 14 touches)
  • Major: 143.2 (3.4% away, 0.72 ATR, 27 touches)

Trends

Evidence

Average earnings surprise
+9.5%
  • May 6, 2026: actual EPS 1.49 vs estimate 1.73 (surprise -14.0%)
  • February 24, 2026: actual EPS 1.04 vs estimate 0.89 (surprise +16.4%)
  • November 6, 2025: actual EPS 2.78 vs estimate 2.13 (surprise +30.7%)
  • August 6, 2025: actual EPS 1.73 vs estimate 1.65 (surprise +5.0%)

Expected move

Drivers

  • Past earnings Negative

    The last quarter's earnings fell short of expectations by 14%, which adds risk. However, a 75% historical beat rate and an average 9.5% surprise provide some balance.

Implied move
+5.7%
Source
Options chain

Reactions over its last 20 earnings

Median move
4.5%
75th percentile move
8.6%
90th percentile move
11.4%
Up / down moves
11 / 9
Average up move
+6.7%
Average down move
-5.6%

Monitoring and close

What NRG Energy, Inc. reported

Status
Finished
Actual EPS1.49
EPS estimate1.72
EPS surprise-13.4%
Revenue$7,481 million
Revenue estimate$7,312 million
Revenue surprise+2.3%

NRG Energy reported adjusted earnings of $1.49 per share, missing estimates, while revenue beat. Shares fell to a 52-week low. Texas data center pause adds pessimism.

Sources (10)

Pre-market second reading after the results

Verdict
Missed expectations

Heading into the open, results beat expectations on revenue but not on earnings, and the price is indicating +2.5% pre-market, a move below the stock's usual reaction (about 5%). The figures don't confirm the prior scenario: the price move doesn't follow the direction the results point to.

How the stock reacted

Outcome
Missed
Consolidated
-15.5%
Max favorable move (MFE)
2.6%
Max adverse move (MAE)
18.8%