NRG Energy, Inc. (NRG) earnings on May 6, 2026
More NRG Energy, Inc. earnings
Prior outlook: Pessimistic Outcome: Accurate
The stock briefly rose after earnings but quickly turned lower, closing down about 4.3%.
NRG price around the earnings
150.64
Change: -4.3%
2026-05-06, 20:00 UTC
- Price: green if it ends above the starting price; red if it ends below
- Start of the measured window
- End of the measured window
- Market open
- Starting price
Prior thesis
Prior outlook: Pessimistic Outcome: Accurate
- Thesis published
Strong earnings history supports potential despite recent weakness.
Despite a recent earnings miss, the company's sales exceeded expectations, and it has a strong history of beating estimates. This positive earnings track record provides a favorable setup, though recent technical performance has been weak.
Context analyzed before publication
- Summary
- Strong earnings history supports potential despite recent weakness.
- Playbook
- The strong historical earnings performance and analyst price targets are noted. The scenario is optimistic given the fundamentals, though recent technical performance has been weak.
- Trend
- Sharp selloff, oversold conditions ahead of earnings.
Analysts
Drivers
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Analysts
Positive
The average analyst price target is about 33.5% above the current price, with most analysts maintaining a 'Buy' rating.
Evidence
- Analyst consensus
- Buy
- Consensus average (1-5)
- 1.65
- Analysts covering the stock
- 17
- Average price target
- 201.47
- Lowest price target
- 96
- Highest price target
- 290
- Upside to price target
- 33.5%
- Quarterly earnings growth
- -89.7%
- Revenue growth
- 13.7%
- Forward EPS
- 11.34
- Trailing EPS
- 4.01
- Analyst moves in the last 60 days
- 3
- Strong buy: 3
- Buy: 11
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 1
- Strong sell: 0
- Strong buy
- 3
- Buy
- 11
- Hold
- 2
- Sell
- 1
- Strong sell
- 0
- April 21, 2026 · Morgan Stanley: Maintains rating (Equal-Weight → Equal-Weight)
- March 31, 2026 · Barclays: Maintains rating (Overweight → Overweight)
- March 18, 2026 · Wolfe Research: Upgrades rating (Peer Perform → Outperform)
News and sentiment
Drivers
-
News & sentiment
Negative
While sales beat expectations, earnings per share missed estimates for Q1. However, the company affirmed its full-year guidance.
Evidence
Sentiment
- Sentiment
- Constructive
- Mention volume
- Low
- Normalized volume
- 33%
News
Sources (5)
- Transcript: NRG Energy Q1 2026 Earnings Conference Call — Benzinga
- NRG Energy Affirms FY2026 Adj EPS Guidance of $7.90-$9.90 vs $8.78 Est. — Benzinga
- NRG Energy Q1 Adj. EPS $1.48 Misses $1.77 Estimate, Sales $10.256B Beat $8.499B Estimate. — Benzinga
- NRG Energy Appoints Robert J. Gaudette CEO Effective April 30, 2026 — Benzinga
- Morgan Stanley Maintains Equal-Weight on NRG Energy, Lowers Price Target to $154 — Benzinga
Technicals
Drivers
-
Technical
Negative
The stock has experienced a significant price drop of -10.03% in the last 14 days, underperforming the market and indicating oversold conditions.
Evidence
- Average true range (ATR)
- 3.8%
- Distance to 52-week high
- -20.5%
- 14-day change (14d)
- -10.0%
- 30-day change
- -0.1%
- 30-day relative strength
- -12.1%
- Benchmark change
- +12.1%
- Nearest support
- 139.95
- Nearest resistance
- 175.46
- Volume accumulation ratio
- 1.09
Trends
Evidence
- Average earnings surprise
- +27.7%
- February 24, 2026: actual EPS 1.04 vs estimate 0.89 (surprise +16.4%)
- November 6, 2025: actual EPS 2.78 vs estimate 2.13 (surprise +30.7%)
- August 6, 2025: actual EPS 1.73 vs estimate 1.65 (surprise +5.0%)
- May 12, 2025: actual EPS 2.68 vs estimate 1.69 (surprise +58.8%)
Expected move
Drivers
-
Past earnings
Positive
The company has a strong recent record of beating earnings over the last four quarters, with an average surprise of +27.7%. This is a very strong historical pattern.
There is no implied-move data available for this event.
Reactions over its last 19 earnings
- Median move
- 4.7%
- 75th percentile move
- 9%
- 90th percentile move
- 11.7%
- Up / down moves
- 11 / 8
- Average up move
- +6.7%
- Average down move
- -5.7%
Monitoring and close
What NRG Energy, Inc. reported
There is no monitoring data available for this event.
Pre-market second reading after the results
There is no second reading available for this event.
How the stock reacted
- Outcome
- Accurate
- Consolidated
- -4.3%
- Max favorable move (MFE)
- 5.4%
- Max adverse move (MAE)
- 2.3%