Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) earnings on July 31, 2026

Before the market opens Q2 2026

More Moderna, Inc. earnings

Prior outlook: Pessimistic Outcome: Accurate

The stock jumped early in the day but fell sharply afterward, ending down over 5%. The price couldn't hold its gains despite some analysts betting against it beforehand.

MRNA price around the earnings

54.82

Change: -5.4%

2026-07-31, 20:00 UTC

Start of the measured window End of the measured window
53.18 55.58 57.97 60.37 57.92
Price series around the eventClosing price per minute from before the event to the end of the measured window.
July 31, 2026
  • Price: green if it ends above the starting price; red if it ends below
  • Start of the measured window
  • End of the measured window
  • Market open
  • Starting price
Price series around the event

Prior thesis

Prior outlook: Pessimistic Outcome: Accurate

Thesis published
Results released

Severe trend strength collapse (-17% 30d), negative RS vs SPY, analyst -14.8% downside, but 100% beat rate and clinical trial news provide binary support.

Context analyzed before publication

Trend
Stock experienced a severe trend strength collapse over recent days, indicating it is heavily after a strong recent drop into the earnings event

Analysts

Evidence

Analyst consensus
Hold
Consensus average (1-5)
2.91
Analysts covering the stock
19
Average price target
49.37
Lowest price target
25
Highest price target
79
Upside to price target
-14.8%
Revenue growth
260.2%
Forward EPS
-4.64
Trailing EPS
-8.65
Analyst moves in the last 60 days
6
  • Strong buy: 2
  • Buy: 2
  • Hold: 16
  • Sell: 1
  • Strong sell: 2
Strong buy
2
Buy
2
Hold
16
Sell
1
Strong sell
2
  • July 21, 2026 · Goldman Sachs: Maintains rating (Neutral → Neutral)
  • July 8, 2026 · Morgan Stanley: Maintains rating (Equal-Weight → Equal-Weight)
  • July 7, 2026 · RBC Capital: Maintains rating (Sector Perform → Sector Perform)
  • July 7, 2026 · B of A Securities: Maintains rating (Underperform → Underperform)
  • June 26, 2026 · Piper Sandler: Maintains rating (Overweight → Overweight)
  • June 8, 2026 · B of A Securities: Maintains rating (Underperform → Underperform)

News and sentiment

Evidence

Sentiment
Sentiment
Constructive
Mention volume
Low
Normalized volume
33%
News
Sources (6)

Technicals

Evidence

Price when the context was analyzed
57.91
Average true range (ATR)
5.5%
Distance to 52-week high
-29.2%
14-day change (14d)
-8.3%
30-day change (30d)
-17.3%
30-day relative strength
-16.6%
SPY change (30d)
-0.7%
Nearest support
57.75
Distance to nearest support
0.3%
Nearest resistance
58.41
Distance to nearest resistance
0.9%
Volume accumulation ratio (14d / 46d)
0.6
  • Mid: 57.75 (0.3% away, 0.05 ATR, 17 touches)
  • Mid: 57.05 (1.5% away, 0.27 ATR, 15 touches)
  • Mid: 56.55 (2.4% away, 0.43 ATR, 11 touches)
  • Minor: 58.41 (0.9% away, 0.16 ATR, 7 touches)
  • Minor: 58.96 (1.8% away, 0.33 ATR, 3 touches)
  • Mid: 59.42 (2.6% away, 0.48 ATR, 16 touches)

Trends

Evidence

Average earnings surprise
+34.5%
  • April 30, 2026: actual EPS -3.4 vs estimate -3.88 (surprise +12.4%)
  • February 13, 2026: actual EPS -2.11 vs estimate -2.64 (surprise +20.2%)
  • November 6, 2025: actual EPS -0.51 vs estimate -2.16 (surprise +76.4%)
  • August 1, 2025: actual EPS -2.13 vs estimate -3 (surprise +29.0%)

Expected move

Implied move
+0.0%
Source
Options chain

Reactions over its last 20 earnings

Median move
5.7%
75th percentile move
12.8%
90th percentile move
16.2%
Up / down moves
9 / 11
Average up move
+8.5%
Average down move
-6.3%

Monitoring and close

What Moderna, Inc. reported

Status
Finished
Actual EPS-1.97
EPS estimate-2.06
EPS surprise+4.3%

Moderna's Q2 revenue topped estimates, but shares fell after its phase III norovirus vaccine study missed early success criteria.

Sources (17)

Pre-market second reading after the results

There is no second reading available for this event.

How the stock reacted

Outcome
Accurate
Consolidated
-5.3%
Max favorable move (MFE)
8.9%
Max adverse move (MAE)
4.2%