Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) earnings on April 30, 2026
Prior outlook: Pessimistic Outcome: Accurate
The stock price saw a strong positive reaction following the earnings announcement. It moved up over 5% intraday and finished the day with a gain of more than 4%.
MRNA price around the earnings
47.30
Change: +3.0%
2026-05-04, 20:00 UTC
- Price: green if it ends above the starting price; red if it ends below
- Start of the measured window
- End of the measured window
- Market open
- No trading (market closed)
- Starting price
Prior thesis
Prior outlook: Pessimistic Outcome: Accurate
Negative momentum, but pipeline news offers hope.
Experts see a sharp drop in price momentum and a poor outlook for growth. However, positive news about their vaccine pipeline and a strong history of beating earnings expectations offer some support.
Context analyzed before publication
- Summary
- Analysts are cautious; the scenario is pessimistic.
- Reasoning
- Despite positive news about its vaccine pipeline, the stock has seen a significant drop. Analysts are cautious about future growth, and its recent price performance has been weak compared to the broader market.
- Playbook
- The negative price trend and analyst concerns point to a pessimistic scenario. The company's ability to translate pipeline successes into future earnings remains a key factor.
- Trend
- Expert opinion has turned more negative recently.
Analysts
Drivers
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Analysts
Negative
The average price target set by analysts is lower than a key support level. This presents a pessimistic scenario.
Evidence
- Analyst consensus
- Hold
- Consensus average (1-5)
- 2.91
- Analysts covering the stock
- 19
- Average price target
- 41.42
- Lowest price target
- 21
- Highest price target
- 69
- Upside to price target
- -9.4%
- Revenue growth
- -29.8%
- Forward EPS
- -4.73
- Trailing EPS
- -7.26
- Analyst moves in the last 60 days
- 1
- Strong buy: 2
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 16
- Sell: 1
- Strong sell: 2
- Strong buy
- 2
- Buy
- 2
- Hold
- 16
- Sell
- 1
- Strong sell
- 2
- April 2, 2026 · Barclays: Maintains rating (Equal-Weight → Equal-Weight)
News and sentiment
Drivers
-
News & sentiment
Positive
There's positive news regarding developments in flu vaccines and regulatory approvals for combo shots in Europe. These could be future growth drivers.
Evidence
Sentiment
- Sentiment
- Constructive
- Mention volume
- Low
- Normalized volume
- 33%
News
Sources (7)
- Moderna Selects Salesforce's Agentforce Life Sciences For Customer Engagement To Integrate Its Global Commercial Operations — Benzinga
- Reported Earlier, Moderna Initiates Phase 3 Study Of Investigational mRNA Pandemic Influenza Vaccine Candidate mRNA-1018 In US And UK — Benzinga
- Europe Clears First Flu/COVID Combo Shot From Moderna — Benzinga
- Moderna To Present Three Abstracts On Its mRNA Therapeutics At 2026 American Society Of Clinical Oncology Annual Meeting In Chicago — Benzinga
- Moderna Says EC Grants Marketing Authorization For mCOMBRIAX, mRNA Combination Vaccine For Active Immunization For Prevention Of Influenza Disease And COVID-19 Caused By SARS-CoV-2 — Benzinga
- What's Pushing Moderna Stock Higher Today? — Benzinga
- Moderna Wins FDA Fast Track For mRNA-4359 Combo After Early Melanoma Trial Results — Benzinga
Technicals
Drivers
-
Technical
Negative
The stock's recent price movements show a strong downward trend over the past month. Its performance is significantly lagging behind the overall market.
Evidence
- Average true range (ATR)
- 5.7%
- Distance to 52-week high
- -23.2%
- 14-day change (14d)
- -10.3%
- 30-day change
- -12.8%
- 30-day relative strength
- -18.9%
- Benchmark change
- +6.1%
- Nearest support
- 44.65
- Nearest resistance
- 56.18
- Volume accumulation ratio
- 0.72
Trends
Evidence
- Average earnings surprise
- +36.1%
- February 13, 2026: actual EPS -2.11 vs estimate -2.64 (surprise +20.2%)
- November 6, 2025: actual EPS -0.51 vs estimate -2.16 (surprise +76.4%)
- August 1, 2025: actual EPS -2.13 vs estimate -3 (surprise +29.0%)
- May 1, 2025: actual EPS -2.52 vs estimate -3.11 (surprise +18.9%)
Expected move
Drivers
-
Past earnings
Positive
The company has a strong recent record of exceeding earnings expectations. This shows strong operational execution.
There is no implied-move data available for this event.
Reactions over its last 19 earnings
- Median move
- 5.9%
- 75th percentile move
- 13%
- 90th percentile move
- 16.4%
- Up / down moves
- 9 / 10
- Average up move
- +8.5%
- Average down move
- -6.8%
Monitoring and close
What Moderna, Inc. reported
There is no monitoring data available for this event.
Pre-market second reading after the results
There is no second reading available for this event.
How the stock reacted
- Outcome
- Accurate
- Consolidated
- -1.2%
- Max favorable move (MFE)
- 4.9%
- Max adverse move (MAE)
- 5.4%