Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR) earnings on August 27, 2026

Before the market opens Q2 2026

More Dollar Tree, Inc. earnings

Prior outlook: No statistical edge

Dollar Tree's stock slipped after the company warned that higher fuel costs are creating significant pressure on the business. The stock ended down about 4% after being down as much as 11%.

DLTR price around the earnings

127.00

Change: -3.9%

2026-08-27, 20:00 UTC

Start of the measured window End of the measured window
120.25 124.72 129.19 133.66 132.18
Price series around the eventClosing price per minute from before the event to the end of the measured window.
August 27, 2026
  • Price: green if it ends above the starting price; red if it ends below
  • Start of the measured window
  • End of the measured window
  • Market open
  • Starting price
Price series around the event

Prior thesis

Prior outlook: No statistical edge

Thesis published
Results released

Positive setup, but analyst caution tempers

The stock shows strong technical strength, outperforming the market and breaking above resistance, with a strong recent record of beating earnings. However, analyst opinions are mixed, with some citing limited upside.

Context analyzed before publication

Summary
Positive setup, but analyst caution tempers
Playbook
The stock is market review above a resistance level with positive trend strength and outperforming the market. Analyst ratings are split between buy and hold, with a price target near the current price.
Trend
Expert sentiment improving recently

Analysts

Drivers

  • Analysts Neutral

    Analyst ratings are mixed: some say buy, others say hold, and the average price target is slightly below the current price, suggesting a limited optimistic scenario.

Evidence

Analyst consensus
Hold
Consensus average (1-5)
2.63
Analysts covering the stock
25
Average price target
131.68
Lowest price target
98
Highest price target
170
Upside to price target
-0.4%
Quarterly earnings growth
1.1%
Revenue growth
7.2%
Forward EPS
7.75
Trailing EPS
6.12
Analyst moves in the last 60 days
9
  • Strong buy: 3
  • Buy: 6
  • Hold: 14
  • Sell: 1
  • Strong sell: 3
Strong buy
3
Buy
6
Hold
14
Sell
1
Strong sell
3
  • August 25, 2026 · Truist Securities: Maintains rating (Buy → Buy)
  • August 25, 2026 · Guggenheim: Maintains rating (Buy → Buy)
  • August 19, 2026 · Jefferies: Upgrades rating (Underperform → Hold)
  • August 17, 2026 · Wells Fargo: Maintains rating (Overweight → Overweight)
  • August 11, 2026 · BMO Capital: Maintains rating (Underperform → Underperform)
  • July 31, 2026 · Bernstein: Maintains rating (Market Perform → Market Perform)
  • July 8, 2026 · Raymond James: Upgrades rating (Market Perform → Outperform)
  • July 8, 2026 · Goldman Sachs: Upgrades rating (Sell → Neutral)
  • July 6, 2026 · JP Morgan: Maintains rating (Overweight → Overweight)

News and sentiment

Evidence

Sentiment
Sentiment
Constructive
Mention volume
High
Normalized volume
99%
News
Sources (7)

Technicals

Drivers

  • Technical Positive

    The stock price is above a resistance level, with strong short-term and medium-term trends, and it's outperforming the market by about 1.7%.

Evidence

Price when the context was analyzed
132.27
Average true range (ATR)
2.8%
Distance to 52-week high
-6.4%
14-day change (14d)
+2.8%
30-day change (30d)
+5.3%
30-day relative strength
+1.7%
SPY change (30d)
+3.7%
Nearest support
131.55
Distance to nearest support
0.5%
Nearest resistance
132.44
Distance to nearest resistance
0.1%
Volume accumulation ratio (14d / 46d)
0.9
  • Mid: 131.55 (0.5% away, 0.19 ATR, 36 touches)
  • Mid: 130.53 (1.3% away, 0.47 ATR, 24 touches)
  • Mid: 129.57 (2% away, 0.73 ATR, 23 touches)
  • Mid: 132.44 (0.1% away, 0.05 ATR, 16 touches)
  • Mid: 133.28 (0.8% away, 0.28 ATR, 19 touches)
  • Mid: 134.61 (1.8% away, 0.63 ATR, 8 touches)

Trends

Evidence

Average earnings surprise
+28.4%
  • May 28, 2026: actual EPS 1.74 vs estimate 1.54 (surprise +12.9%)
  • March 16, 2026: actual EPS 2.56 vs estimate 2.53 (surprise +1.1%)
  • December 3, 2025: actual EPS 1.21 vs estimate 1.08 (surprise +11.8%)
  • September 3, 2025: actual EPS 0.77 vs estimate 0.41 (surprise +87.7%)

Expected move

Drivers

  • Past earnings Positive

    The company has beaten earnings expectations in all of the last four quarters, with an average surprise of over 28%, the strongest among the group.

Implied move
+11.2%
Source
Options chain

Reactions over its last 20 earnings

Median move
8.4%
75th percentile move
12.3%
90th percentile move
18.3%
Up / down moves
10 / 10
Average up move
+7.0%
Average down move
-11.3%

Monitoring and close

What Dollar Tree, Inc. reported

Status
Finished
Actual EPS1.39
EPS estimate1.14
EPS surprise+21.9%
Revenue$4,887 million
Revenue estimate$4,859 million
Revenue surprise+0.6%

Dollar Tree beat Q2 with tariff refunds and raised full-year guidance, but analysts downgrade to Hold on valuation concerns and fuel costs remain a headwind.

Sources (30)

Pre-market second reading after the results

Verdict
Beat expectations

Heading into the open, results beat expectations on both earnings and revenue, and the price is indicating -7.3% pre-market, a move in line with the stock's usual reaction (about 8%). The figures don't confirm the prior scenario: there was no prior directional scenario to check against.

How the stock reacted

Consolidated
-3.9%
Max move
-10.6%

No verdict: the outlook took no direction, so there is nothing to score as a hit or a miss.