CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) earnings on August 5, 2026
More CF Industries Holdings, Inc. earnings
Prior outlook: Pessimistic Outcome: Partial
CF Industries released quarterly results that fell short of expectations, sending the stock down as much as 9%. The stock recovered to close slightly higher as investors weighed concerns about shipping costs and geopolitical tensions.
CF price around the earnings
116.73
Change: +0.2%
2026-08-06, 20:00 UTC
- Price: green if it ends above the starting price; red if it ends below
- Start of the measured window
- End of the measured window
- Market open
- No trading (market closed)
- Starting price
Prior thesis
Prior outlook: Pessimistic Outcome: Partial
- Thesis published
- Results released
Strong earnings beat history and dividend raise +20%, but extreme retail crowding vs analyst holds creates after a strong recent rise setup.
Context analyzed before publication
- Trend
- Recent trajectory collapsed from positive to deeply negative, signaling increasing after a strong recent rise conditions and potential f
Analysts
Evidence
- Analyst consensus
- Hold
- Consensus average (1-5)
- 2.86
- Analysts covering the stock
- 19
- Average price target
- 125.25
- Lowest price target
- 100
- Highest price target
- 195.72
- Upside to price target
- 7.4%
- Quarterly earnings growth
- 97.1%
- Revenue growth
- 19.4%
- Forward EPS
- 11.27
- Trailing EPS
- 11.1
- Analyst moves in the last 60 days
- 3
- Strong buy: 2
- Buy: 3
- Hold: 13
- Sell: 2
- Strong sell: 1
- Strong buy
- 2
- Buy
- 3
- Hold
- 13
- Sell
- 2
- Strong sell
- 1
- July 17, 2026 · RBC Capital: Maintains rating (Sector Perform → Sector Perform)
- July 7, 2026 · Morgan Stanley: Maintains rating (Equal-Weight → Equal-Weight)
- June 30, 2026 · Scotiabank: Upgrades rating (Sector Perform → Sector Outperform)
News and sentiment
Evidence
Sentiment
- Sentiment
- Constructive
- Mention volume
- High
- Normalized volume
- 95.7%
News
Sources (4)
- RBC Capital Maintains Sector Perform on CF Industries Holdings, Lowers Price Target to $115 (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga
- CF Industries Raises Its Quarterly Cash Dividend From $0.50 To $0.60 (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga
- Palo Alto To Rally Around 19%? Here Are 10 Top Analyst Forecasts For Tuesday (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga
- Morgan Stanley Maintains Equal-Weight on CF Industries Holdings, Lowers Price Target to $115 (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga
Technicals
Evidence
- Price when the context was analyzed
- 118.1
- Average true range (ATR)
- 3.6%
- Distance to 52-week high
- -14.9%
- 14-day change (14d)
- -4.0%
- 30-day change (33d)
- +6.8%
- 30-day relative strength
- +3.3%
- SPY change (33d)
- +3.5%
- Nearest support
- 117.92
- Distance to nearest support
- 0.2%
- Nearest resistance
- 119.27
- Distance to nearest resistance
- 1%
- Volume accumulation ratio (14d / 46d)
- 0.83
- Mid: 117.92 (0.2% away, 0.05 ATR, 14 touches)
- Mid: 116.97 (1% away, 0.27 ATR, 8 touches)
- Mid: 115.39 (2.3% away, 0.65 ATR, 11 touches)
- Mid: 119.27 (1% away, 0.28 ATR, 18 touches)
- Mid: 120.38 (1.9% away, 0.54 ATR, 15 touches)
- Mid: 121.67 (3% away, 0.85 ATR, 23 touches)
Trends
Evidence
- Average earnings surprise
- +8.7%
- May 6, 2026: actual EPS 2.89 vs estimate 2.66 (surprise +8.7%)
- February 18, 2026: actual EPS 3.06 vs estimate 2.47 (surprise +23.9%)
- November 5, 2025: actual EPS 2.19 vs estimate 2.07 (surprise +5.6%)
- August 6, 2025: actual EPS 2.39 vs estimate 2.47 (surprise -3.4%)
Expected move
- Implied move
- +5.0%
- Source
- Options chain
Reactions over its last 20 earnings
- Median move
- 1.6%
- 75th percentile move
- 4%
- 90th percentile move
- 5.6%
- Up / down moves
- 13 / 7
- Average up move
- +2.3%
- Average down move
- -3.6%
Monitoring and close
What CF Industries Holdings, Inc. reported
- Status
- Finished
| Actual EPS | 4.73 |
|---|---|
| EPS estimate | 5.44 |
| EPS surprise | -13.1% |
| Revenue | $2,222 million |
| Revenue estimate | $2,438 million |
| Revenue surprise | -8.9% |
CF Industries reported earnings per share of $4.73, missing the $5.44 estimate. Revenue of $2.222 billion also fell short of expectations.
Sources (2)
- CF Industries reported earnings per share of $4.73, missing the $5.44 estimate. Revenue came in at $2.222 billion, also below expectations. — Benzinga
- CF Industries Holdings Q2 EPS $4.73 Misses $5.44 Estimate, Sales $2.222B Miss $2.438B Estimate (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga
Pre-market second reading after the results
- Verdict
- Missed expectations
Heading into the open, results came in below expectations on both earnings and revenue, and the price is indicating -5.7% pre-market, a move 3x the stock's usual reaction (about 2%). The figures confirm the pessimistic scenario. In the 1,140 similar cases in our market history, the close held that direction 84% of the time.
How the stock reacted
- Outcome
- Partial
- Consolidated
- +0.5%
- Max favorable move (MFE)
- 9%
- Max adverse move (MAE)
- 0.6%