Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL) earnings on July 28, 2026
More Arch Capital Group Ltd. earnings
Prior outlook: Optimistic Outcome: Missed
The stock couldn't hold onto early gains and slipped to a low of 4.81% before ending 1.81% lower.
ACGL price around the earnings
104.55
Change: -1.8%
2026-07-29, 20:00 UTC
Start of the measured window
End of the measured window
101.43
103.28
105.14
106.99
106.48
July 28, 2026
July 28, 2026
- Price: green if it ends above the starting price; red if it ends below
- Start of the measured window
- End of the measured window
- Market open
- No trading (market closed)
- Starting price
Prior thesis
Prior outlook: Optimistic Outcome: Missed
- Thesis published
- Results released
Pre-release: Exceptional earnings beat record with a strong recent trend, but analyst upside modest.
Context analyzed before publication
- Trend
- Trajectory cooled from peak into earnings after a strong run-up.
Analysts
Evidence
- Analyst consensus
- Buy
- Consensus average (1-5)
- 2.25
- Analysts covering the stock
- 19
- Average price target
- 110.61
- Lowest price target
- 93
- Highest price target
- 126
- Upside to price target
- 4.1%
- Quarterly earnings growth
- 82.4%
- Revenue growth
- -3.3%
- Forward EPS
- 9.81
- Trailing EPS
- 13
- Analyst moves in the last 60 days
- 7
- Strong buy: 3
- Buy: 7
- Hold: 9
- Sell: 1
- Strong sell: 0
- Strong buy
- 3
- Buy
- 7
- Hold
- 9
- Sell
- 1
- Strong sell
- 0
- July 20, 2026 · JP Morgan: Maintains rating (Neutral → Neutral)
- July 9, 2026 · Wells Fargo: Maintains rating (Overweight → Overweight)
- July 9, 2026 · Cantor Fitzgerald: Maintains rating (Neutral → Neutral)
- July 9, 2026 · Mizuho: Maintains rating (Neutral → Neutral)
- July 8, 2026 · UBS: Maintains rating (Buy → Buy)
- July 8, 2026 · Keefe, Bruyette & Woods: Maintains rating (Market Perform → Market Perform)
- July 6, 2026 · Morgan Stanley: Maintains rating (Overweight → Overweight)
News and sentiment
Evidence
Sentiment
- Sentiment
- Constructive
- Mention volume
- Low
- Normalized volume
- 33%
News
Sources (6)
- Wells Fargo Maintains Overweight on Arch Capital Group, Raises Price Target to $114 (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga
- Cantor Fitzgerald Maintains Neutral on Arch Capital Group, Raises Price Target to $102 (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga
- Mizuho Maintains Neutral on Arch Capital Group, Raises Price Target to $104 (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga
- UBS Maintains Buy on Arch Capital Group, Raises Price Target to $120 (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga
- Keefe, Bruyette & Woods Maintains Market Perform on Arch Capital Group, Lowers Price Target to $99 (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga
- Morgan Stanley Maintains Overweight on Arch Capital Group, Raises Price Target to $110 (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga
Technicals
Evidence
- Average true range (ATR)
- 2.1%
- Distance to 52-week high
- +0.0%
- 14-day change (14d)
- +0.8%
- 30-day change (31d)
- +6.4%
- 30-day relative strength
- +5.1%
- SPY change (31d)
- +1.3%
- Nearest support
- 103.4
- Nearest resistance
- 103.95
- Volume accumulation ratio (14d / 46d)
- 0.81
Trends
Evidence
- Average earnings surprise
- +13.1%
- April 28, 2026: actual EPS 2.5 vs estimate 2.46 (surprise +1.5%)
- February 9, 2026: actual EPS 2.98 vs estimate 2.57 (surprise +15.8%)
- October 27, 2025: actual EPS 2.77 vs estimate 2.25 (surprise +22.9%)
- July 29, 2025: actual EPS 2.58 vs estimate 2.3 (surprise +12.2%)
Expected move
- Implied move
- +1.4%
- Source
- Options chain
Reactions over its last 20 earnings
- Median move
- 2.2%
- 75th percentile move
- 3%
- 90th percentile move
- 4.8%
- Up / down moves
- 8 / 12
- Average up move
- +2.9%
- Average down move
- -2.4%
Monitoring and close
What Arch Capital Group Ltd. reported
- Status
- Finished
| Actual EPS | 2.56 |
|---|---|
| EPS estimate | 2.43 |
| EPS surprise | +5.3% |
| Revenue | $3,985 million |
| Revenue estimate | $4,438 million |
| Revenue surprise | -10.2% |
Arch Capital reported Q2 2026 results. Shares fell 2.4% after hours due to higher catastrophe losses.
Sources (10)
- Arch Capital Group Q2 Earnings Call Highlights (opens in a new tab) — MarketBeat
- ACGL Q2 Earnings Beat on Reserve Gains, Investment Income (opens in a new tab) — Zacks
- Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript (opens in a new tab) — SeekingAlpha
- Arch Capital Group Ltd. 2026 Q2 - Results - Earnings Call Presentation (opens in a new tab) — SeekingAlpha
- Compared to Estimates, Arch Capital (ACGL) Q2 Earnings: A Look at Key Metrics (opens in a new tab) — Zacks
- Arch Capital Group (ACGL) Tops Q2 Earnings Estimates (opens in a new tab) — Zacks
- Arch Capital (NASDAQ:ACGL) Quality Stock Shows EPS Beat Amid Catastrophe Losses (opens in a new tab) — ChartMill
- Arch Capital beat earnings estimates with $2.56 per share, but revenue of $3.985B fell short of expectations. — Benzinga
- Arch Capital Group Q2 Adj. EPS $2.56 Beats $2.43 Estimate, Sales $3.985B Miss $4.438B Estimate (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga
- Arch Capital Group Ltd. Reports 2026 Second Quarter Results (opens in a new tab) — Yahoo
Pre-market second reading after the results
- Verdict
- Mixed results
Heading into the open, the figures don't clearly confirm the prior scenario.
How the stock reacted
- Outcome
- Missed
- Consolidated
- -1.8%
- Max favorable move (MFE)
- 0.1%
- Max adverse move (MAE)
- 4.8%