Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL) earnings on April 28, 2026
More Arch Capital Group Ltd. earnings
Prior outlook: Pessimistic Outcome: Accurate
Arch Capital Group's stock dropped sharply after reporting earnings, falling nearly 6% during the day and closing down over 4%. The company delivered strong results but analysts were cautious about the outlook.
ACGL price around the earnings
92.76
Change: -4.4%
2026-04-29, 19:59 UTC
- Price: green if it ends above the starting price; red if it ends below
- Start of the measured window
- Market open
- No trading (market closed)
- Starting price
Prior thesis
Prior outlook: Pessimistic Outcome: Accurate
- Thesis published
Analysts cautious — the risk outweighs the reward
Analysts are cautiously optimistic, expecting modest gains despite a strong earnings history. However, there's a notable divergence between this professional caution and extremely high retail investor enthusiasm, which is not backed by analyst ratings.
Context analyzed before publication
- Summary
- Analysts cautious — risk outweighs reward
- Playbook
- With analysts showing limited conviction and retail sentiment detached from fundamentals, the scenario suggests waiting for a clearer context before investing.
- Trend
- Outlook slightly worsening over past two sessions
Analysts
Drivers
-
Analysts
Neutral
The average analyst rating is neutral, and the price targets suggest only a small potential for growth. Recent analyst actions have been mixed, with some raising price targets and others lowering them, indicating a lack of strong agreement on the stock's future.
Evidence
- Analyst consensus
- Buy
- Consensus average (1-5)
- 2.25
- Analysts covering the stock
- 19
- Average price target
- 109.47
- Lowest price target
- 95
- Highest price target
- 125
- Upside to price target
- 11.1%
- Quarterly earnings growth
- 32.4%
- Revenue growth
- 8.5%
- Forward EPS
- 10.06
- Trailing EPS
- 11.6
- Analyst moves in the last 60 days
- 3
- Strong buy: 3
- Buy: 7
- Hold: 9
- Sell: 1
- Strong sell: 0
- Strong buy
- 3
- Buy
- 7
- Hold
- 9
- Sell
- 1
- Strong sell
- 0
- April 20, 2026 · JP Morgan: Maintains rating (Neutral → Neutral)
- April 8, 2026 · Barclays: Maintains rating (Equal-Weight → Equal-Weight)
- April 7, 2026 · Keefe, Bruyette & Woods: Maintains rating (Market Perform → Market Perform)
News and sentiment
Drivers
-
News & sentiment
Negative
Investor sentiment on social media is extremely positive, but news and analyst opinions are neutral to cautious. This disconnect suggests that the high level of retail excitement is not supported by professional assessments or recent company news.
Evidence
Sentiment
- Sentiment
- Constructive
- Mention volume
- Low
- Normalized volume
- 33%
News
Sources (4)
- If You Invested $100 In Arch Capital Group Stock 20 Years Ago, You Would Have This Much Today — Benzinga
- JP Morgan Maintains Neutral on Arch Capital Group, Lowers Price Target to $110 — Benzinga
- Barclays Maintains Equal-Weight on Arch Capital Group, Raises Price Target to $106 — Benzinga
- Keefe, Bruyette & Woods Maintains Market Perform on Arch Capital Group, Raises Price Target to $105 — Benzinga
Technicals
Drivers
-
Technical
Neutral
The stock has shown slight positive price movement recently and is currently market review in the middle of its recent price range. There are no strong indications that the stock is either overbought or oversold based on its recent market review activity.
Evidence
- Average true range (ATR)
- 1.6%
- Distance to 52-week high
- -4.7%
- 14-day change (14d)
- +3.3%
- 30-day change
- +2.5%
- 30-day relative strength
- -1.6%
- Benchmark change
- +4.1%
- Nearest support
- 91.49
- Nearest resistance
- 99.66
- Volume accumulation ratio
- 1.01
Trends
Evidence
- Average earnings surprise
- +23.0%
- February 9, 2026: actual EPS 2.98 vs estimate 2.57 (surprise +15.8%)
- October 27, 2025: actual EPS 3.56 vs estimate 2.43 (surprise +46.6%)
- July 29, 2025: actual EPS 2.58 vs estimate 2.3 (surprise +12.2%)
- April 29, 2025: actual EPS 1.54 vs estimate 1.31 (surprise +17.2%)
Expected move
There is no implied-move data available for this event.
Reactions over its last 19 earnings
- Median move
- 2.2%
- 75th percentile move
- 2.7%
- 90th percentile move
- 4.9%
- Up / down moves
- 8 / 11
- Average up move
- +2.9%
- Average down move
- -2.2%
Monitoring and close
What Arch Capital Group Ltd. reported
There is no monitoring data available for this event.
Pre-market second reading after the results
There is no second reading available for this event.
How the stock reacted
- Outcome
- Accurate
- Consolidated
- -4.4%
- Max favorable move (MFE)
- 5.8%
- Max adverse move (MAE)
- 0%