United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS) earnings on July 28, 2026

Before the market opens Q2 2026

More United Parcel Service, Inc. earnings

Prior outlook: Pessimistic Outcome: Accurate

UPS fell sharply, dropping over 6% after the company warned about slower growth ahead.

UPS price around the earnings

105.53

Change: -6.6%

2026-07-28, 20:00 UTC

Start of the measured window End of the measured window
103.77 108.00 112.23 116.46 112.95
Price series around the eventClosing price per minute from before the event to the end of the measured window.
July 28, 2026
  • Price: green if it ends above the starting price; red if it ends below
  • Start of the measured window
  • End of the measured window
  • Market open
  • Starting price
Price series around the event

Prior thesis

Prior outlook: Pessimistic Outcome: Accurate

Thesis published
Results released

Negative growth outlook with minimal optimistic scenario; 75% beat rate offers contrarian edge but trajectory deteriorating sharply.

Context analyzed before publication

Trend
Moderate 30-day run-up, but recent trend strength flat, suggesting cooling expectations into earnings.

Analysts

Evidence

Analyst consensus
Buy
Consensus average (1-5)
2.17
Analysts covering the stock
26
Average price target
115.04
Lowest price target
76
Highest price target
135
Upside to price target
1.8%
Quarterly earnings growth
-27.2%
Revenue growth
-1.6%
Forward EPS
8.02
Trailing EPS
6.18
Analyst moves in the last 60 days
5
  • Strong buy: 0
  • Buy: 14
  • Hold: 12
  • Sell: 1
  • Strong sell: 2
Strong buy
0
Buy
14
Hold
12
Sell
1
Strong sell
2
  • July 21, 2026 · Evercore ISI Group: Maintains rating (In-Line → In-Line)
  • July 21, 2026 · Bernstein: Maintains rating (Outperform → Outperform)
  • July 15, 2026 · Citizens: Initiates coverage (Market Perform)
  • July 9, 2026 · Citigroup: Maintains rating (Buy → Buy)
  • July 6, 2026 · Morgan Stanley: Maintains rating (Underweight → Underweight)

News and sentiment

Evidence

Sentiment
Sentiment
Constructive
Mention volume
Low
Normalized volume
33%
News
Sources (6)

Technicals

Evidence

Average true range (ATR)
2.4%
Distance to 52-week high
-4.0%
14-day change (14d)
+0.0%
30-day change (31d)
+4.4%
30-day relative strength
+3.1%
SPY change (31d)
+1.3%
Nearest support
112.22
Nearest resistance
113.24
Volume accumulation ratio (14d / 46d)
0.9

Trends

Evidence

Average earnings surprise
+11.5%
  • April 28, 2026: actual EPS 1.07 vs estimate 1.02 (surprise +4.8%)
  • January 27, 2026: actual EPS 2.38 vs estimate 2.2 (surprise +8.1%)
  • October 28, 2025: actual EPS 1.74 vs estimate 1.3 (surprise +33.9%)
  • July 29, 2025: actual EPS 1.55 vs estimate 1.57 (surprise -1.0%)

Expected move

Implied move
+4.7%
Source
Options chain

Reactions over its last 20 earnings

Median move
5.7%
75th percentile move
8.7%
90th percentile move
12%
Up / down moves
7 / 13
Average up move
+6.0%
Average down move
-6.2%

Monitoring and close

What United Parcel Service, Inc. reported

Status
Finished
Actual EPS1.76
EPS estimate1.66
EPS surprise+6.0%
Revenue$22,800 million
Revenue estimate$21,809 million
Revenue surprise+4.5%

UPS beat Q2 estimates and raised its full-year outlook, but shares fell on concerns over margins and domestic volume.

Sources (34)

Pre-market second reading after the results

Verdict
Beat expectations

Heading into the open, the figures don't clearly confirm the prior scenario.

How the stock reacted

Outcome
Accurate
Consolidated
-6.6%
Max favorable move (MFE)
8.7%
Max adverse move (MAE)
3.1%