Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) earnings on July 22, 2026

After the market closes Q2 2026

More Tesla, Inc. earnings

Prior outlook: Pessimistic Outcome: Accurate

Tesla shares had their worst day in over a year, falling nearly 14% after earnings disappointed investors.

TSLA price around the earnings

319.69

Change: -14.5%

2026-07-23, 20:00 UTC

Start of the measured window End of the measured window
315.94 335.80 355.67 375.53 374.01
Price series around the eventClosing price per minute from before the event to the end of the measured window.No trading (market closed)
July 22, 2026 July 23, 2026
  • Price: green if it ends above the starting price; red if it ends below
  • Start of the measured window
  • End of the measured window
  • Market open
  • No trading (market closed)
  • Starting price
Price series around the event

Prior thesis

Prior outlook: Pessimistic Outcome: Accurate

Thesis published
Results released

Analysts cite growth with a positive price target, but Q2 profit uncertainty and negative trend strength persist.

Context analyzed before publication

Trend
Volatile negative trajectory with recent recovery; analyst upgrades provide support but negative trend strength persists into

Analysts

Evidence

Analyst consensus
Buy
Consensus average (1-5)
2.38
Analysts covering the stock
39
Average price target
425.22
Lowest price target
125
Highest price target
600
Upside to price target
13.6%
Quarterly earnings growth
16.6%
Revenue growth
15.8%
Forward EPS
2.57
Trailing EPS
1.1
Analyst moves in the last 60 days
10
  • Strong buy: 5
  • Buy: 17
  • Hold: 19
  • Sell: 4
  • Strong sell: 2
Strong buy
5
Buy
17
Hold
19
Sell
4
Strong sell
2
  • July 21, 2026 · GLJ Research: Reiterates rating (Sell → Sell)
  • July 14, 2026 · Morgan Stanley: Maintains rating (Equal-Weight → Equal-Weight)
  • July 14, 2026 · Barclays: Maintains rating (Equal-Weight → Equal-Weight)
  • July 14, 2026 · Wells Fargo: Maintains rating (Underweight → Underweight)
  • July 13, 2026 · Jefferies: Maintains rating (Hold → Hold)
  • July 9, 2026 · UBS: Maintains rating (Neutral → Neutral)
  • July 9, 2026 · Citizens: Initiates coverage (Market Perform)
  • July 7, 2026 · RBC Capital: Maintains rating (Outperform → Outperform)
  • July 2, 2026 · Freedom Broker: Maintains rating (Hold → Hold)
  • July 2, 2026 · Morgan Stanley: Maintains rating (Equal-Weight → Equal-Weight)

News and sentiment

Evidence

Sentiment
Sentiment
Cautious
Mention volume
Low
Normalized volume
33%
News
Sources (9)

Technicals

Evidence

Average true range (ATR)
4.1%
Distance to 52-week high
-23.6%
14-day change (14d)
-6.0%
30-day change (33d)
-5.4%
30-day relative strength
-5.6%
SPY change (33d)
+0.2%
Nearest support
377.17
Nearest resistance
380.02
Volume accumulation ratio (14d / 46d)
1.07

Trends

Evidence

Average earnings surprise
+4.1%
  • April 22, 2026: actual EPS 0.41 vs estimate 0.35 (surprise +17.1%)
  • January 28, 2026: actual EPS 0.5 vs estimate 0.45 (surprise +11.0%)
  • October 22, 2025: actual EPS 0.5 vs estimate 0.56 (surprise -10.5%)
  • July 23, 2025: actual EPS 0.4 vs estimate 0.4 (surprise -1.1%)

Expected move

Implied move
+5.2%
Source
Options chain

Reactions over its last 20 earnings

Median move
8.8%
75th percentile move
11.1%
90th percentile move
12.2%
Up / down moves
9 / 11
Average up move
+8.0%
Average down move
-8.1%

Monitoring and close

What Tesla, Inc. reported

Status
Pending
Actual EPS0.33
EPS estimate0.5
EPS surprise-34.0%
Revenue$28,236 million
Revenue estimate$25,706 million
Revenue surprise+9.8%

Sources (1)

  • Tesla reported adjusted earnings of $0.33 per share, missing the $0.50 estimate, but revenue of $28.236B beat the $25.706B forecast. — Benzinga

Pre-market second reading after the results

Verdict
Missed expectations

Heading into the open, the figures confirm the pessimistic scenario. In the 1419 past cases with a similar move, the close held that direction 96% of the time.

How the stock reacted

Outcome
Accurate
Consolidated
-14.5%
Max favorable move (MFE)
15.6%
Max adverse move (MAE)
0.1%