Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) earnings on August 11, 2026

After the market closes Q2 2026

More Super Micro Computer, Inc. earnings

Prior outlook: Optimistic Outcome: Accurate

SMCI shares rallied strongly after earnings, reaching an intraday high of 20.7% and closing up 19%. The move came despite some analysts keeping cautious ratings while raising their price targets.

SMCI price around the earnings

37.61

Change: +19.0%

2026-08-12, 20:00 UTC

Start of the measured window End of the measured window
31.00 33.38 35.76 38.14 31.60
Price series around the eventClosing price per minute from before the event to the end of the measured window.No trading (market closed)
August 11, 2026 August 12, 2026
  • Price: green if it ends above the starting price; red if it ends below
  • Start of the measured window
  • End of the measured window
  • Market open
  • No trading (market closed)
  • Starting price
Price series around the event

Prior thesis

Prior outlook: Optimistic Outcome: Accurate

Thesis published
Results released

Optimistic outlook, the scenario is optimistic.

Experts see strong AI demand and a big order backlog as positive signs, but they're cautious because past earnings have been mixed and the average analyst rating is neutral. The technical setup is the main driver, pointing to continued strength despite some negative sentiment.

Context analyzed before publication

Summary
Optimistic outlook, the scenario is optimistic.
Playbook
The stock has risen recently, and its trend strength is above the market. However, the crowd's mood is slightly negative, and analysts are not fully convinced, so the scenario could be volatile.
Trend
Expert opinion improved over the last few days

Analysts

Drivers

  • Analysts Neutral

    Analysts rate the stock as 'hold' with a target price of $38, citing about 22% above the current price, but they remain cautious despite the scenario.

Evidence

Analyst consensus
Hold
Consensus average (1-5)
2.84
Analysts covering the stock
16
Average price target
37.81
Lowest price target
15
Highest price target
58
Upside to price target
21.7%
Quarterly earnings growth
344.4%
Revenue growth
122.7%
Forward EPS
3.31
Trailing EPS
1.9
Analyst moves in the last 60 days
0
  • Strong buy: 2
  • Buy: 3
  • Hold: 11
  • Sell: 2
  • Strong sell: 1
Strong buy
2
Buy
3
Hold
11
Sell
2
Strong sell
1

News and sentiment

Drivers

  • News & sentiment Positive

    A $60 billion order backlog provides solid support, and while audit concerns remain, the backlog validates the business.

Evidence

Sentiment
Sentiment
Constructive
Mention volume
High
Normalized volume
99%
News
Sources (5)

Technicals

Drivers

  • Technical Positive

    The stock shows strong trend strength, with gains of 5.5% over two weeks and 11% over a month, and it's outperforming the broader market.

Evidence

Price when the context was analyzed
31.45
Average true range (ATR)
6.9%
Distance to 52-week high
-47.1%
14-day change (14d)
+5.5%
30-day change (31d)
+11.1%
30-day relative strength
+8.7%
SPY change (31d)
+2.4%
Nearest support
31.17
Distance to nearest support
0.9%
Nearest resistance
31.65
Distance to nearest resistance
0.6%
Volume accumulation ratio (14d / 46d)
1.06
  • Major: 31.17 (0.9% away, 0.13 ATR, 35 touches)
  • Major: 30.86 (1.9% away, 0.27 ATR, 62 touches)
  • Major: 30.3 (3.7% away, 0.53 ATR, 30 touches)
  • Major: 31.65 (0.6% away, 0.09 ATR, 25 touches)
  • Major: 32.31 (2.7% away, 0.4 ATR, 25 touches)
  • Major: 32.6 (3.7% away, 0.53 ATR, 27 touches)

Trends

Drivers

  • Macro & trends Positive

    Demand for AI data centers remains strong, and the sector is benefiting from a favorable trend.

Evidence

Average earnings surprise
+14.8%
  • May 5, 2026: actual EPS 0.84 vs estimate 0.62 (surprise +34.5%)
  • February 3, 2026: actual EPS 0.69 vs estimate 0.49 (surprise +41.4%)
  • November 4, 2025: actual EPS 0.35 vs estimate 0.39 (surprise -10.1%)
  • August 5, 2025: actual EPS 0.41 vs estimate 0.44 (surprise -6.6%)

Expected move

Drivers

  • Past earnings Neutral

    The company beat earnings expectations half the time, with an average surprise of 14.8%, but recent results have been mixed.

Implied move
+10.6%
Source
Options chain

Reactions over its last 19 earnings

Median move
12.8%
75th percentile move
19.2%
90th percentile move
25.3%
Up / down moves
12 / 7
Average up move
+13.7%
Average down move
-13.0%

Monitoring and close

What Super Micro Computer, Inc. reported

Status
Finished
Actual EPS1.7
EPS estimate0.62
EPS surprise+174.2%
Revenue$11,120 million
Revenue estimate$12,332 million
Revenue surprise-9.8%

Super Micro beats earnings estimates and gives optimistic guidance for next quarter and fiscal 2027, driven by AI server demand. Shares rise.

Sources (10)

Pre-market second reading after the results

Verdict
Beat expectations

Heading into the open, results beat expectations on earnings but not on revenue, and the price is indicating +9.1% pre-market, a move in line with the stock's usual reaction (about 13%). The figures confirm the optimistic scenario. In the 1,468 similar cases in our market history, the close held that direction 96% of the time.

How the stock reacted

Outcome
Accurate
Consolidated
+19.0%
Max favorable move (MFE)
20.7%
Max adverse move (MAE)
0.1%