Strategy Inc (MSTR) earnings on July 30, 2026
Prior outlook: Pessimistic Outcome: Accurate
The stock opened and dropped sharply, falling as much as 8.73% during the day before closing down 4.56%. The decline continued even after the company reported its quarterly results.
MSTR price around the earnings
93.28
Change: -4.6%
2026-07-31, 20:00 UTC
Start of the measured window
End of the measured window
89.36
92.26
95.16
98.06
97.74
July 30, 2026
July 31, 2026
- Price: green if it ends above the starting price; red if it ends below
- Start of the measured window
- End of the measured window
- Market open
- No trading (market closed)
- Starting price
Prior thesis
Prior outlook: Pessimistic Outcome: Accurate
- Thesis published
- Results released
Extreme analyst upside clashes with catastrophic past earnings, while price trajectory deteriorated significantly into the event.
Context analyzed before publication
- Trend
- Price deteriorated significantly into event, showing an extreme selloff with potential for a bounce.
Analysts
Evidence
- Analyst consensus
- Strong buy
- Consensus average (1-5)
- 1.27
- Analysts covering the stock
- 14
- Average price target
- 303.64
- Lowest price target
- 130
- Highest price target
- 570
- Upside to price target
- 210.5%
- Revenue growth
- 11.9%
- Forward EPS
- 4.46
- Trailing EPS
- -36.99
- Analyst moves in the last 60 days
- 9
- Strong buy: 2
- Buy: 12
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- Strong sell: 0
- Strong buy
- 2
- Buy
- 12
- Hold
- 1
- Sell
- 0
- Strong sell
- 0
- July 8, 2026 · Barclays: Initiates coverage (Overweight)
- July 7, 2026 · Mizuho: Maintains rating (Outperform → Outperform)
- July 1, 2026 · Citigroup: Maintains rating (Buy → Buy)
- July 1, 2026 · BTIG: Maintains rating (Buy → Buy)
- June 30, 2026 · BTIG: Maintains rating (Buy → Buy)
- June 30, 2026 · TD Cowen: Maintains rating (Buy → Buy)
- June 30, 2026 · Canaccord Genuity: Maintains rating (Buy → Buy)
- June 3, 2026 · Canaccord Genuity: Maintains rating (Buy → Buy)
- June 1, 2026 · Mizuho: Maintains rating (Outperform → Outperform)
News and sentiment
Evidence
Sentiment
- Sentiment
- Constructive
- Mention volume
- Low
- Normalized volume
- 33%
News
Sources (1)
- Peter Schiff Slams MSTR, Backs Up Claims With Math: 'At This Rate, You're Better Off Owning BTC if You're Bullish' (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga
Technicals
Evidence
- Price when the context was analyzed
- 93.38
- Average true range (ATR)
- 6.6%
- Distance to 52-week high
- -75.7%
- 14-day change (14d)
- -4.2%
- 30-day change (30d)
- +0.8%
- 30-day relative strength
- +9.4%
- QQQ change (30d)
- -8.6%
- Nearest support
- 91.85
- Distance to nearest support
- 1.6%
- Nearest resistance
- 93.39
- Distance to nearest resistance
- 0%
- Volume accumulation ratio (14d / 46d)
- 0.94
- Minor: 91.85 (1.6% away, 0.25 ATR, 7 touches)
- Minor: 91.14 (2.4% away, 0.36 ATR, 7 touches)
- Mid: 90 (3.6% away, 0.55 ATR, 13 touches)
- Mid: 93.39 (0% away, 0 ATR, 28 touches)
- Mid: 94.81 (1.5% away, 0.23 ATR, 16 touches)
- Mid: 96.08 (2.9% away, 0.44 ATR, 17 touches)
Trends
Evidence
- Average earnings surprise
- -53.9%
- May 5, 2026: actual EPS -38.25 vs estimate -15.33 (surprise -149.6%)
- February 5, 2026: actual EPS -42.93 vs estimate -20.99 (surprise -104.5%)
- October 30, 2025: actual EPS 8.42 vs estimate 9.67 (surprise -12.9%)
- July 31, 2025: actual EPS 32.52 vs estimate 21.48 (surprise +51.4%)
Expected move
- Implied move
- +6.3%
- Source
- Options chain
Reactions over its last 20 earnings
- Median move
- 5.1%
- 75th percentile move
- 6.7%
- 90th percentile move
- 13.3%
- Up / down moves
- 10 / 10
- Average up move
- +7.0%
- Average down move
- -5.4%
Monitoring and close
What Strategy Inc reported
- Status
- Finished
| Actual EPS | -24.45 |
|---|---|
| EPS estimate | 3.07 |
| EPS surprise | -895.3% |
Strategy posted an $8.22B Q2 net loss on Bitcoin's decline, yet raised holdings to 843,775 BTC. Outlook pessimistic.
Sources (6)
- Strategy misses Q2 earnings estimates by a wide margin (opens in a new tab) — TheStreet
- Strategy (MSTR) Reports Q2 Loss, Misses Revenue Estimates (opens in a new tab) — Zacks
- Why Strategy Earnings Are an Afterthought for MSTR Stock (opens in a new tab) — Barrons.com
- Strategy shares edge lower after bitcoin losses drive Q2 miss (opens in a new tab) — Investing.com
- Strategy (MSTR) Misses Q2 Revenue Estimates, Posts $8.6B Net Loss on Bitcoin Unrealized Loss (opens in a new tab) — ChartMill
- Earnings per share: $-24.45 vs $3.07 expected — below expectations. — Yahoo Finance
Pre-market second reading after the results
There is no second reading available for this event.
How the stock reacted
- Outcome
- Accurate
- Consolidated
- -4.6%
- Max favorable move (MFE)
- 8.7%
- Max adverse move (MAE)
- 0.6%