Steel Dynamics, Inc. (STLD) earnings on July 20, 2026

After the market closes Q2 2026

More Steel Dynamics, Inc. earnings

Prior outlook: Pessimistic Outcome: Partial

The stock had dropped sharply recently, then rebounded and climbed almost 4% during the day before ending up 1.31%. The technical setup worked despite skepticism and no analyst support.

STLD price around the earnings

233.52

Change: +1.3%

2026-07-21, 20:00 UTC

Start of the measured window End of the measured window
221.00 226.86 232.73 238.59 230.49
Price series around the eventClosing price per minute from before the event to the end of the measured window.No trading (market closed)No trading (market closed)
July 20, 2026 July 21, 2026
  • Price: green if it ends above the starting price; red if it ends below
  • Start of the measured window
  • End of the measured window
  • Market open
  • No trading (market closed)
  • Starting price
Price series around the event

Prior thesis

Prior outlook: Pessimistic Outcome: Partial

Thesis published
Results released

The price comes from a strong recent drop, with analyst targets pointing to upside but no clear reversal driver.

The stock has dropped significantly, market review 17.5% below its support level with negative trend strength, though analysts still cite about 17% upside to their price target. A mixed earnings history and neutral retail sentiment provide no clear catalyst for recovery in a fundamentally weakening setup.

Context analyzed before publication

Summary
The price comes from a strong recent drop, with analyst targets pointing to upside but no clear reversal driver.
Playbook
The price has broken below key support levels and remains in a negative trend, down 14% over the past month. Analysts maintain a positive target but have been downgrading their ratings, and earnings results have been inconsistent, with no clear catalyst for recovery.
Trend
Negative but stabilizing from worst levels

Analysts

Drivers

  • Analysts Neutral

    Despite a Buy rating on average, recent downgrades by major banks to Neutral context fading confidence, though the price target still implies 17% upside.

Evidence

Analyst consensus
Buy
Consensus average (1-5)
2
Analysts covering the stock
12
Average price target
271.33
Lowest price target
221
Highest price target
310
Upside to price target
16.8%
Quarterly earnings growth
85.8%
Revenue growth
19.1%
Forward EPS
18.87
Trailing EPS
9.32
Analyst moves in the last 60 days
8
  • Strong buy: 2
  • Buy: 6
  • Hold: 3
  • Sell: 1
  • Strong sell: 0
Strong buy
2
Buy
6
Hold
3
Sell
1
Strong sell
0
  • July 15, 2026 · JP Morgan: Maintains rating (Neutral → Neutral)
  • July 9, 2026 · B of A Securities: Maintains rating (Neutral → Neutral)
  • June 24, 2026 · Keybanc: Maintains rating (Overweight → Overweight)
  • June 22, 2026 · Morgan Stanley: Maintains rating (Equal-Weight → Equal-Weight)
  • June 18, 2026 · Wells Fargo: Maintains rating (Overweight → Overweight)
  • June 18, 2026 · B of A Securities: Maintains rating (Neutral → Neutral)
  • June 10, 2026 · JP Morgan: Maintains rating (Neutral → Neutral)
  • June 4, 2026 · Wells Fargo: Maintains rating (Overweight → Overweight)

News and sentiment

Evidence

Sentiment
Sentiment
Neutral
Mention volume
Low
Normalized volume
33%
News
Sources (6)

Technicals

Drivers

  • Technical Negative

    The stock is market review 17.5% below its nearest support level with negative trend strength, indicating a breakdown below key technical thresholds.

Evidence

Average true range (ATR)
2.9%
Distance to 52-week high
-17.7%
14-day change (14d)
-4.1%
30-day change (30d)
-14.4%
30-day relative strength
-14.4%
Benchmark change (0d)
+0.0%
Nearest support
235.17
Nearest resistance
237.96
Volume accumulation ratio (14d / 46d)
1

Trends

Evidence

Average earnings surprise
+2.1%
  • April 20, 2026: actual EPS 2.78 vs estimate 2.79 (surprise -0.2%)
  • January 26, 2026: actual EPS 1.82 vs estimate 1.69 (surprise +7.9%)
  • October 20, 2025: actual EPS 2.74 vs estimate 2.63 (surprise +4.2%)
  • July 21, 2025: actual EPS 2.01 vs estimate 2.08 (surprise -3.5%)

Expected move

Drivers

  • Past earnings Neutral

    The company has met earnings expectations only half the time, with the most recent quarter slightly missing forecasts.

There is no implied-move data available for this event.

Reactions over its last 19 earnings

Median move
3.8%
75th percentile move
4.8%
90th percentile move
5.3%
Up / down moves
11 / 8
Average up move
+4.3%
Average down move
-2.3%

Monitoring and close

What Steel Dynamics, Inc. reported

Status
Finished
Actual EPS3.69
EPS estimate3.77
EPS surprise-2.1%
Revenue$6,092 million
Revenue estimate$5,570 million
Revenue surprise+9.4%

Steel Dynamics reported Q2 2026 earnings surprise of +3.65% and revenue surprise of +17.05%, beating estimates for the quarter ended June 2026.

Sources (11)

Pre-market second reading after the results

Heading into the open, the figures overturn the prior pessimistic scenario. In the 713 past cases with a similar move, the close held that direction 86% of the time.

How the stock reacted

Outcome
Partial
Consolidated
+1.3%
Max favorable move (MFE)
4.4%
Max adverse move (MAE)
4%