Shopify Inc. (SHOP) earnings on August 5, 2026

Before the market opens Q2 2026

More Shopify Inc. earnings

Prior outlook: No statistical edge

Shopify stock jumped sharply after reporting earnings, climbing as much as 34% during the day before closing up about 18%.

SHOP price around the earnings

144.24

Change: +17.7%

2026-08-05, 20:00 UTC

Start of the measured window End of the measured window
118.35 132.65 146.95 161.25 122.56
Price series around the eventClosing price per minute from before the event to the end of the measured window.
August 5, 2026
  • Price: green if it ends above the starting price; red if it ends below
  • Start of the measured window
  • End of the measured window
  • Market open
  • Starting price
Price series around the event

Prior thesis

Prior outlook: No statistical edge

Thesis published
Results released

Analyst Buy with 20% upside but trajectory collapsed from +34 to -12; high IV (2.26) elevates event risk significantly.

Context analyzed before publication

Trend
Mixed to slightly negative trajectory into earnings, with recent weakness after an initial positive period.

Analysts

Evidence

Analyst consensus
Buy
Consensus average (1-5)
1.71
Analysts covering the stock
46
Average price target
148.39
Lowest price target
105
Highest price target
200
Upside to price target
20.3%
Revenue growth
34.3%
Forward EPS
2.33
Trailing EPS
1.07
Analyst moves in the last 60 days
4
  • Strong buy: 10
  • Buy: 29
  • Hold: 11
  • Sell: 1
  • Strong sell: 0
Strong buy
10
Buy
29
Hold
11
Sell
1
Strong sell
0
  • July 24, 2026 · Citigroup: Maintains rating (Buy → Buy)
  • July 21, 2026 · Rothschild & Co: Downgrades rating (Buy → Neutral)
  • July 13, 2026 · Jefferies: Upgrades rating (Hold → Buy)
  • July 10, 2026 · Stifel: Upgrades rating (Hold → Buy)

News and sentiment

Evidence

Sentiment
Sentiment
Constructive
Mention volume
High
Normalized volume
99%
News
Sources (5)

Technicals

Evidence

Price when the context was analyzed
122.56
Average true range (ATR)
5.2%
Distance to 52-week high
-31.1%
14-day change (14d)
-0.4%
30-day change (33d)
+2.5%
30-day relative strength
+1.0%
QQQ change (33d)
+1.6%
Nearest support
121.68
Distance to nearest support
0.7%
Nearest resistance
123.47
Distance to nearest resistance
0.7%
Volume accumulation ratio (14d / 46d)
0.99
  • Major: 121.68 (0.7% away, 0.14 ATR, 37 touches)
  • Major: 120.59 (1.6% away, 0.31 ATR, 43 touches)
  • Mid: 117.57 (4.1% away, 0.79 ATR, 23 touches)
  • Mid: 123.47 (0.7% away, 0.14 ATR, 28 touches)
  • Mid: 124.42 (1.5% away, 0.29 ATR, 24 touches)
  • Major: 125.7 (2.6% away, 0.5 ATR, 32 touches)

Trends

Evidence

Average earnings surprise
+6.4%
  • May 5, 2026: actual EPS 0.36 vs estimate 0.33 (surprise +8.6%)
  • February 11, 2026: actual EPS 0.48 vs estimate 0.51 (surprise -5.7%)
  • November 4, 2025: actual EPS 0.34 vs estimate 0.34 (surprise +0.6%)
  • August 6, 2025: actual EPS 0.35 vs estimate 0.29 (surprise +22.1%)

Expected move

Implied move
+11.8%
Source
Options chain

Reactions over its last 20 earnings

Median move
15.2%
75th percentile move
18%
90th percentile move
21.9%
Up / down moves
9 / 11
Average up move
+16.1%
Average down move
-10.4%

Monitoring and close

What Shopify Inc. reported

Status
Finished
Actual EPS0.42
EPS estimate0.4
EPS surprise+5.0%
Revenue$3,583 million
Revenue estimate$3,445 million
Revenue surprise+4.0%

Shopify beats expectations with strong earnings and optimistic guidance. AI drives sales and margins. Market shows renewed confidence, though extreme optimism warnings persist.

Sources (37)

Pre-market second reading after the results

Verdict
Beat expectations

Heading into the open, results beat expectations on both earnings and revenue, and the price is indicating +21.8% pre-market, a move above the stock's usual reaction (about 15%). The figures don't confirm the prior scenario: there was no prior directional scenario to check against.

How the stock reacted

Consolidated
+17.8%
Max move
+34.4%

No verdict: the outlook took no direction, so there is nothing to score as a hit or a miss.