The Progressive Corporation (PGR) earnings on July 15, 2026
More The Progressive Corporation earnings
Prior outlook: Optimistic Outcome: Missed
Progressive shares fell sharply after its earnings report, despite beating profit expectations but missing revenue targets.
PGR price around the earnings
205.22
Change: -9.4%
2026-07-15, 20:00 UTC
Start of the measured window
End of the measured window
203.89
212.10
220.32
228.53
226.58
July 15, 2026
- Price: green if it ends above the starting price; red if it ends below
- Start of the measured window
- End of the measured window
- Market open
- No trading (market closed)
- Starting price
Prior thesis
Prior outlook: Optimistic Outcome: Missed
- Thesis published
Strong recent trend (+18.9% 30d) but analyst hold with minimal upside (+3.6%) and mixed earnings history (75% beat, Q3 miss).
Context analyzed before publication
- Trend
- Strong run-up into earnings, driven by recent trend strength, but past Q3 miss and limited analyst upside temper expectations.
Analysts
Evidence
- Analyst consensus
- Hold
- Consensus average (1-5)
- 2.72
- Analysts covering the stock
- 21
- Average price target
- 234.71
- Lowest price target
- 190
- Highest price target
- 313
- Upside to price target
- 3.6%
- Quarterly earnings growth
- 9.8%
- Revenue growth
- 8.7%
- Forward EPS
- 16.46
- Trailing EPS
- 19.65
- Analyst moves in the last 60 days
- 10
- Strong buy: 4
- Buy: 4
- Hold: 14
- Sell: 2
- Strong sell: 1
- Strong buy
- 4
- Buy
- 4
- Hold
- 14
- Sell
- 2
- Strong sell
- 1
- July 14, 2026 · JP Morgan: Downgrades rating (Overweight → Neutral)
- July 10, 2026 · Evercore ISI Group: Maintains rating (In-Line → In-Line)
- July 9, 2026 · Mizuho: Maintains rating (Neutral → Neutral)
- July 8, 2026 · Keefe, Bruyette & Woods: Maintains rating (Market Perform → Market Perform)
- July 6, 2026 · HSBC: Maintains rating (Hold → Hold)
- June 30, 2026 · UBS: Maintains rating (Neutral → Neutral)
- June 18, 2026 · Keefe, Bruyette & Woods: Maintains rating (Market Perform → Market Perform)
- June 18, 2026 · Wells Fargo: Maintains rating (Equal-Weight → Equal-Weight)
- June 18, 2026 · B of A Securities: Maintains rating (Buy → Buy)
- June 2, 2026 · B of A Securities: Maintains rating (Buy → Buy)
News and sentiment
Evidence
Sentiment
- Sentiment
- Neutral
- Mention volume
- Low
- Normalized volume
- 33%
News
Sources (7)
- Morgan Stanley, Johnson & Johnson And 3 Stocks To Watch Heading Into Wednesday — Benzinga
- ASML Could Swing 7.5% After Earnings on Wednesday — Benzinga
- This Apple Analyst Turns Bearish; Here Are Top 5 Downgrades For Tuesday — Benzinga
- JP Morgan Downgrades Progressive to Neutral, Announces $250 Price Target — Benzinga
- Evercore ISI Group Maintains In-Line on Progressive, Raises Price Target to $240 — Benzinga
- Mizuho Maintains Neutral on Progressive, Raises Price Target to $243 — Benzinga
- Keefe, Bruyette & Woods Maintains Market Perform on Progressive, Raises Price Target to $231 — Benzinga
Technicals
Evidence
- Average true range (ATR)
- 2.5%
- Distance to 52-week high
- -4.5%
- 14-day change (14d)
- +5.0%
- 30-day change (30d)
- +18.9%
- 30-day relative strength
- +18.9%
- Benchmark change (0d)
- +0.0%
- Nearest support
- 226.27
- Nearest resistance
- 228.61
- Volume accumulation ratio (14d / 46d)
- 1.08
Trends
Evidence
- Average earnings surprise
- -0.7%
- April 15, 2026: actual EPS 4.96 vs estimate 4.88 (surprise +1.6%)
- January 28, 2026: actual EPS 4.67 vs estimate 4.43 (surprise +5.3%)
- October 15, 2025: actual EPS 4.05 vs estimate 5.05 (surprise -19.7%)
- July 16, 2025: actual EPS 4.88 vs estimate 4.43 (surprise +10.0%)
Expected move
There is no implied-move data available for this event.
Reactions over its last 19 earnings
- Median move
- 1.8%
- 75th percentile move
- 3.3%
- 90th percentile move
- 5%
- Up / down moves
- 11 / 8
- Average up move
- +2.2%
- Average down move
- -2.7%
Monitoring and close
What The Progressive Corporation reported
There is no monitoring data available for this event.
Pre-market second reading after the results
There is no second reading available for this event.
How the stock reacted
- Outcome
- Missed
- Consolidated
- -9.4%
- Max favorable move (MFE)
- 0%
- Max adverse move (MAE)
- 10.2%