Phillips 66 (PSX) earnings on August 5, 2026
Prior outlook: No statistical edge
Phillips 66 reported quarterly earnings and revenue that beat analyst expectations. The stock rose in early market review but gave up those gains to close lower for the day.
PSX price around the earnings
202.55
Change: -1.7%
2026-08-05, 20:00 UTC
Start of the measured window
End of the measured window
200.57
204.38
208.19
212.00
205.99
August 5, 2026
- Price: green if it ends above the starting price; red if it ends below
- Start of the measured window
- End of the measured window
- Market open
- Starting price
Prior thesis
Prior outlook: No statistical edge
- Thesis published
- Results released
100% beat rate, +74% avg surprise, $10B buyback, strong RS; price near target limits upside.
Context analyzed before publication
- Trend
- Strong 7-day rally (+26.5 to +75.6) into earnings; trend strength inflection risk near.
Analysts
Evidence
- Analyst consensus
- Buy
- Consensus average (1-5)
- 2.1
- Analysts covering the stock
- 19
- Average price target
- 207.53
- Lowest price target
- 138
- Highest price target
- 246
- Upside to price target
- 0.8%
- Quarterly earnings growth
- -57.5%
- Revenue growth
- 6.9%
- Forward EPS
- 18.98
- Trailing EPS
- 9.86
- Analyst moves in the last 60 days
- 10
- Strong buy: 3
- Buy: 9
- Hold: 6
- Sell: 1
- Strong sell: 1
- Strong buy
- 3
- Buy
- 9
- Hold
- 6
- Sell
- 1
- Strong sell
- 1
- July 27, 2026 · UBS: Maintains rating (Buy → Buy)
- July 22, 2026 · Goldman Sachs: Maintains rating (Neutral → Neutral)
- July 21, 2026 · TD Cowen: Maintains rating (Buy → Buy)
- July 14, 2026 · Citigroup: Maintains rating (Neutral → Neutral)
- July 13, 2026 · Evercore ISI Group: Maintains rating (Outperform → Outperform)
- July 13, 2026 · Raymond James: Maintains rating (Outperform → Outperform)
- July 9, 2026 · Jefferies: Maintains rating (Hold → Hold)
- July 9, 2026 · Barclays: Maintains rating (Equal-Weight → Equal-Weight)
- June 29, 2026 · TD Cowen: Maintains rating (Buy → Buy)
- June 12, 2026 · Morgan Stanley: Maintains rating (Overweight → Overweight)
News and sentiment
Evidence
Sentiment
- Sentiment
- Constructive
- Mention volume
- High
- Normalized volume
- 99%
News
Sources (7)
- Phillips 66 Increases Its Share Buyback Program By $10B (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga
- 'Shell And Phillips 66 Are Working On A Potential Sale Of Their Stakes In The Explorer Pipeline; Energy Transfer And MPLX Could Also Join Explorer Sale Efforts, Depending On The Strength Of Interest In The Shell And Phillips 66 Stakes; Any Deal Could Value The Explorer Pipeline At Around $3.5B, Sources Say' - Reuters Exclusive (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga
- UBS Maintains Buy on Phillips 66, Raises Price Target to $235 (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga
- Piper Sandler Assumes Phillips 66 at Neutral, Announces Price Target of $208 (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga
- Goldman Sachs Maintains Neutral on Phillips 66, Raises Price Target to $235 (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga
- $100 Invested In Phillips 66 5 Years Ago Would Be Worth This Much Today (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga
- TD Cowen Maintains Buy on Phillips 66, Raises Price Target to $240 (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga
Technicals
Evidence
- Price when the context was analyzed
- 205.99
- Average true range (ATR)
- 2.7%
- Distance to 52-week high
- -3.0%
- 14-day change (14d)
- -2.9%
- 30-day change (33d)
- +16.8%
- 30-day relative strength
- +13.3%
- SPY change (33d)
- +3.5%
- Nearest support
- 203.15
- Distance to nearest support
- 1.4%
- Nearest resistance
- 206.73
- Distance to nearest resistance
- 0.4%
- Volume accumulation ratio (14d / 46d)
- 1.19
- Mid: 203.15 (1.4% away, 0.51 ATR, 10 touches)
- Mid: 200.82 (2.5% away, 0.92 ATR, 8 touches)
- Mid: 198.51 (3.6% away, 1.33 ATR, 5 touches)
- Mid: 206.73 (0.4% away, 0.13 ATR, 15 touches)
- Mid: 209.05 (1.5% away, 0.55 ATR, 8 touches)
- Mid: 211.8 (2.8% away, 1.04 ATR, 14 touches)
Trends
Evidence
- Average earnings surprise
- +74.0%
- April 29, 2026: actual EPS 0.49 vs estimate -0.39 (surprise +225.7%)
- February 4, 2026: actual EPS 2.47 vs estimate 2.15 (surprise +14.7%)
- October 29, 2025: actual EPS 2.52 vs estimate 2.16 (surprise +16.8%)
- July 25, 2025: actual EPS 2.38 vs estimate 1.71 (surprise +38.9%)
Expected move
- Implied move
- +3.5%
- Source
- Options chain
Reactions over its last 20 earnings
- Median move
- 2.7%
- 75th percentile move
- 3.8%
- 90th percentile move
- 4.8%
- Up / down moves
- 11 / 9
- Average up move
- +2.6%
- Average down move
- -2.7%
Monitoring and close
What Phillips 66 reported
- Status
- Finished
| Actual EPS | 9.41 |
|---|---|
| EPS estimate | 7.5 |
| EPS surprise | +25.5% |
Phillips 66 Q2 earnings and revenues beat estimates on strong refining margins. The company reduced debt by $6.6 billion and expanded its stock buyback program to $10 billion.
Sources (9)
- Phillips 66 Cashes in on Refining Boom Sparked by Middle East Supply Disruptions (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga
- PSX Q2 Earnings & Revenues Beat Estimates on Strong Refining Margins (opens in a new tab) — Zacks
- Phillips 66 (PSX) Q2 Earnings: Taking a Look at Key Metrics Versus Estimates (opens in a new tab) — Zacks
- Phillips 66 2026 Q2 - Results - Earnings Call Presentation (opens in a new tab) — SeekingAlpha
- Phillips 66 (PSX) Beats Q2 Earnings and Revenue Estimates (opens in a new tab) — Zacks
- Phillips 66 Q2 Adj. EPS $9.41 Beats $7.44 Estimate, Sales $52.044B Beat $43.716B Estimate (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga
- Phillips 66 Q2 Adj. EPS $9.41 Beats $7.44 Estimate (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga
- Phillips 66 Delivers Strong Second-Quarter Results and Operating Performance (opens in a new tab) — Yahoo
- Earnings per share: $9.41 vs $7.50 expected — above expectations. — Yahoo Finance
Pre-market second reading after the results
There is no second reading available for this event.
How the stock reacted
- Consolidated
- -1.8%
- Max move
- +2.9%
No verdict: the outlook took no direction, so there is nothing to score as a hit or a miss.