Paychex, Inc. (PAYX) earnings on September 23, 2026

Before the market opens Q2 2026

More Paychex, Inc. earnings

Prior outlook: Pessimistic Outcome: Accurate

The stock briefly rose after earnings but then fell sharply, dropping as much as 9.9% during the day to close down 8.8%.

PAYX price around the earnings

104.49

Change: -8.8%

2026-09-23, 20:00 UTC

Start of the measured window End of the measured window
103.70 108.13 112.57 117.00 114.53
Price series around the eventClosing price per minute from before the event to the end of the measured window.
September 23, 2026
  • Price: green if it ends above the starting price; red if it ends below
  • Start of the measured window
  • End of the measured window
  • Market open
  • Starting price
Price series around the event

Prior thesis

Prior outlook: Pessimistic Outcome: Accurate

Thesis published

Strong underperformance, analyst cuts, retail divergence

The price has dropped sharply while the market climbs, and several analysts recently cut their expectations. Retail investors remain oddly constructive despite the weakness.

Context analyzed before publication

Summary
Strong underperformance, analyst cuts, retail divergence
Playbook
The stock fell 8% over 30 days while the QQQ index rose nearly 5%. Multiple analysts downgraded their ratings recently, with the average price target offering only 5% upside.
Trend
Consistent decline in expert outlook over five days

Analysts

Drivers

  • Analysts Negative

    Hold rating consensus with recent downgrades from three firms; price target implies only 5.6% upside

Evidence

Analyst consensus
Hold
Consensus average (1-5)
3.05
Analysts covering the stock
14
Average price target
121
Lowest price target
105
Highest price target
150
Upside to price target
5.6%
Quarterly earnings growth
41.5%
Revenue growth
12.5%
Forward EPS
6.39
Trailing EPS
4.89
Analyst moves in the last 60 days
6
  • Strong buy: 0
  • Buy: 2
  • Hold: 14
  • Sell: 2
  • Strong sell: 1
Strong buy
0
Buy
2
Hold
14
Sell
2
Strong sell
1
  • September 16, 2026 · Wolfe Research: Upgrades rating (Underperform → Peer Perform)
  • September 11, 2026 · TD Cowen: Maintains rating (Hold → Hold)
  • September 9, 2026 · Stifel: Maintains rating (Hold → Hold)
  • September 9, 2026 · Wells Fargo: Maintains rating (Underweight → Underweight)
  • August 13, 2026 · Jefferies: Maintains rating (Hold → Hold)
  • July 30, 2026 · Citigroup: Maintains rating (Buy → Buy)

News and sentiment

Evidence

Sentiment
Sentiment
Constructive
Mention volume
High
Normalized volume
95.7%
Messages
29
News
Sources (6)

Technicals

Drivers

  • Technical Negative

    30-day trend strength lags the market by nearly 13 percentage points; stock cases 12% below its yearly high

Evidence

Price when the context was analyzed
114.56
Average true range (ATR)
2%
Distance to 52-week high
-9.7%
14-day change (14d)
-2.0%
30-day change (32d)
-8.0%
30-day relative strength
-12.8%
QQQ change (32d)
+4.8%
Nearest support
114.25
Distance to nearest support
0.3%
Nearest resistance
114.83
Distance to nearest resistance
0.2%
Volume accumulation ratio (14d / 46d)
0.99
  • Mid: 114.25 (0.3% away, 0.14 ATR, 20 touches)
  • Major: 113.42 (1% away, 0.51 ATR, 33 touches)
  • Major: 112.37 (1.9% away, 0.98 ATR, 33 touches)
  • Major: 114.83 (0.2% away, 0.12 ATR, 29 touches)
  • Mid: 115.75 (1% away, 0.53 ATR, 17 touches)
  • Major: 116.56 (1.7% away, 0.89 ATR, 32 touches)

Trends

Evidence

Average earnings surprise
+1.8%
  • June 24, 2026: actual EPS 1.32 vs estimate 1.31 (surprise +0.9%)
  • March 25, 2026: actual EPS 1.71 vs estimate 1.67 (surprise +2.3%)
  • December 19, 2025: actual EPS 1.26 vs estimate 1.23 (surprise +2.4%)
  • September 30, 2025: actual EPS 1.22 vs estimate 1.2 (surprise +1.4%)

Expected move

Drivers

  • Past earnings Neutral

    Inconsistent track record: 4 beats and 4 misses over 8 quarters; last two post-earnings moves were negative

Implied move
+1.9%
Source
Options chain

Reactions over its last 20 earnings

Median move
3.5%
75th percentile move
5.1%
90th percentile move
6.6%
Up / down moves
11 / 9
Average up move
+3.7%
Average down move
-3.8%

Monitoring and close

What Paychex, Inc. reported

Status
Finished
Actual EPS1.34
EPS estimate1.32
EPS surprise+1.6%

Paychex shares fell 7% for their worst day in over a year after reporting softening revenue growth and stagnant guidance in fiscal Q1. The earnings call transcript is now available.

Sources (27)

Pre-market second reading after the results

There is no second reading available for this event.

How the stock reacted

Outcome
Accurate
Consolidated
-8.8%
Max favorable move (MFE)
9.9%
Max adverse move (MAE)
2.2%