Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH) earnings on July 30, 2026

Before the market opens Q2 2026

More Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. earnings

Prior outlook: Pessimistic Outcome: Accurate

Norwegian Cruise Line shares fell 9% as concerns over Middle East conflict and operational challenges weighed on demand.

NCLH price around the earnings

18.72

Change: -9.8%

2026-07-30, 20:00 UTC

Start of the measured window End of the measured window
18.69 19.46 20.22 20.99 20.75
Price series around the eventClosing price per minute from before the event to the end of the measured window.
July 30, 2026
  • Price: green if it ends above the starting price; red if it ends below
  • Start of the measured window
  • End of the measured window
  • Market open
  • Starting price
Price series around the event

Prior thesis

Prior outlook: Pessimistic Outcome: Accurate

Thesis published
Results released

Despite historical beats, recent analyst downgrades and negative recent trend create headwinds into earnings.

Context analyzed before publication

Trend
Consistent negative recent trend into earnings, with a recent sharp decline, indicating increasing pessimistic sentiment.

Analysts

Evidence

Analyst consensus
Buy
Consensus average (1-5)
2.15
Analysts covering the stock
25
Average price target
21.76
Lowest price target
15
Highest price target
32
Upside to price target
4.9%
Revenue growth
9.6%
Forward EPS
2.01
Trailing EPS
1.21
Analyst moves in the last 60 days
10
  • Strong buy: 1
  • Buy: 11
  • Hold: 15
  • Sell: 0
  • Strong sell: 0
Strong buy
1
Buy
11
Hold
15
Sell
0
Strong sell
0
  • July 23, 2026 · Truist Securities: Downgrades rating (Buy → Hold)
  • July 20, 2026 · Stifel: Maintains rating (Buy → Buy)
  • July 17, 2026 · Jefferies: Maintains rating (Hold → Hold)
  • July 14, 2026 · Goldman Sachs: Maintains rating (Neutral → Neutral)
  • July 9, 2026 · Morgan Stanley: Maintains rating (Equal-Weight → Equal-Weight)
  • July 8, 2026 · BMO Capital: Initiates coverage (Market Perform)
  • July 1, 2026 · Wells Fargo: Maintains rating (Overweight → Overweight)
  • June 23, 2026 · TD Cowen: Maintains rating (Buy → Buy)
  • June 16, 2026 · Citigroup: Maintains rating (Buy → Buy)
  • June 3, 2026 · Freedom Broker: Initiates coverage (Buy)

News and sentiment

Evidence

Sentiment
Sentiment
Constructive
Mention volume
Low
Normalized volume
33%
News
Sources (7)

Technicals

Evidence

Price when the context was analyzed
20.77
Average true range (ATR)
4.1%
Distance to 52-week high
-23.0%
14-day change (14d)
+5.2%
30-day change (30d)
-5.2%
30-day relative strength
-3.7%
SPY change (30d)
-1.5%
Nearest support
20.6
Distance to nearest support
0.8%
Nearest resistance
20.83
Distance to nearest resistance
0.3%
Volume accumulation ratio (14d / 46d)
0.53
  • Major: 20.6 (0.8% away, 0.19 ATR, 33 touches)
  • Major: 20.48 (1.4% away, 0.33 ATR, 20 touches)
  • Mid: 20.27 (2.4% away, 0.58 ATR, 16 touches)
  • Mid: 20.83 (0.3% away, 0.07 ATR, 17 touches)
  • Mid: 21.09 (1.6% away, 0.38 ATR, 24 touches)
  • Mid: 21.24 (2.2% away, 0.54 ATR, 24 touches)

Trends

Evidence

Average earnings surprise
+17.2%
  • May 4, 2026: actual EPS 0.23 vs estimate 0.14 (surprise +61.3%)
  • March 2, 2026: actual EPS 0.28 vs estimate 0.27 (surprise +5.5%)
  • November 4, 2025: actual EPS 1.2 vs estimate 1.16 (surprise +3.3%)
  • July 31, 2025: actual EPS 0.51 vs estimate 0.52 (surprise -1.1%)

Expected move

Implied move
+9.0%
Source
Options chain

Reactions over its last 20 earnings

Median move
8.1%
75th percentile move
10.5%
90th percentile move
14.9%
Up / down moves
9 / 11
Average up move
+6.1%
Average down move
-9.1%

Monitoring and close

What Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. reported

Status
Finished
Actual EPS0.48
EPS estimate0.39
EPS surprise+23.1%
Revenue$2,641 million
Revenue estimate$2,643 million
Revenue surprise-0.1%

Norwegian Cruise beat Q2 earnings and revenue estimates but cut full-year outlook on weak demand and rising fuel costs. Shares fall.

Sources (18)

Pre-market second reading after the results

Verdict
Beat expectations

Heading into the open, earnings beat expectations but revenue missed, and the price is indicating a 7.1% pre-market drop, a move in line with the stock's typical reaction (about 8%). The figures confirm the pessimistic scenario. In past cases, across 425 similar instances, the close held that direction 94% of the time.

How the stock reacted

Outcome
Accurate
Consolidated
-9.8%
Max favorable move (MFE)
10.2%
Max adverse move (MAE)
0.4%