Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) earnings on July 16, 2026
Prior outlook: No statistical edge
Netflix seesawed after reporting earnings. It rose early in the day but analysts cut their price targets, leaving the stock down 6.9%.
NFLX price around the earnings
68.95
Change: -6.7%
2026-07-17, 20:00 UTC
- Price: green if it ends above the starting price; red if it ends below
- Start of the measured window
- End of the measured window
- Market open
- No trading (market closed)
- Starting price
Prior thesis
Prior outlook: No statistical edge
- Thesis published
Analysts optimistic, but earnings history weak
Analysts cite big upside potential, but the company has only beaten earnings estimates half the time, and the stock is near a 20-month low. This mix of optimism and weak performance makes the outlook uncertain.
Context analyzed before publication
- Summary
- Analysts optimistic, but earnings history weak
- Playbook
- The stock is at a 20-month low with negative price trends, while analysts cite over 50% upside. However, the company's earnings track record is mixed, with recent misses creating a cautious backdrop.
- Trend
- Expert sentiment worsened into event
Analysts
Drivers
-
Analysts
Positive
Major investment firms rate the stock overweight with a target price 50% above current levels, and the average analyst rating is a Buy, showing strong institutional confidence.
Evidence
- Analyst consensus
- Buy
- Consensus average (1-5)
- 1.68
- Analysts covering the stock
- 44
- Average price target
- 111.03
- Lowest price target
- 80
- Highest price target
- 151.4
- Upside to price target
- 50.8%
- Quarterly earnings growth
- 82.8%
- Revenue growth
- 16.2%
- Forward EPS
- 3.83
- Trailing EPS
- 3.1
- Analyst moves in the last 60 days
- 9
- Strong buy: 8
- Buy: 29
- Hold: 13
- Sell: 0
- Strong sell: 0
- Strong buy
- 8
- Buy
- 29
- Hold
- 13
- Sell
- 0
- Strong sell
- 0
- July 15, 2026 · Guggenheim: Reiterates rating (Buy → Buy)
- July 14, 2026 · Morgan Stanley: Reiterates rating (Overweight → Overweight)
- July 14, 2026 · Rosenblatt: Maintains rating (Neutral → Neutral)
- July 14, 2026 · Barclays: Maintains rating (Equal-Weight → Equal-Weight)
- July 13, 2026 · Oppenheimer: Maintains rating (Outperform → Outperform)
- July 13, 2026 · Keybanc: Maintains rating (Overweight → Overweight)
- July 9, 2026 · Citigroup: Maintains rating (Buy → Buy)
- July 8, 2026 · Bernstein: Maintains rating (Outperform → Outperform)
- May 18, 2026 · B of A Securities: Reiterates rating (Buy → Buy)
News and sentiment
Evidence
Sentiment
- Sentiment
- Constructive
- Mention volume
- Low
- Normalized volume
- 33%
News
Sources (6)
- If You Invested $1000 In Netflix Stock 15 Years Ago, You Would Have This Much Today — Benzinga
- Netflix Earnings Prediction Market Preview: What Will Ted Sarandos Say? — Benzinga
- Netflix Stock in Focus: A Look at the Earnings, Analyst Activity, Technical Picture — Benzinga
- Netflix's Q3 Earnings Report Could Lead to $21.5 Billion Swing in Market Value — Benzinga
- Live On CNBC, Steve Weiss Announces Sold Netflix — Benzinga
- Netflix Q2 Preview: Stock Hasn't Been This Cheap in 21 Months, But Analysts Are Growing Cautious — Benzinga
Technicals
Drivers
-
Technical
Negative
The stock has fallen 14% in the last 30 days, is market review at a 20-month low, and the expert score dropped to -39.8 on event day, with a brief bounce insufficient to reverse the downtrend.
Evidence
- Average true range (ATR)
- 3.1%
- Distance to 52-week high
- -42.3%
- 14-day change (14d)
- +2.5%
- 30-day change (30d)
- -14.2%
- 30-day relative strength
- -14.2%
- Benchmark change (0d)
- +0.0%
- Nearest support
- 73.41
- Nearest resistance
- 73.96
- Volume accumulation ratio (14d / 46d)
- 1.15
Trends
Evidence
- Average earnings surprise
- -4.8%
- April 16, 2026: actual EPS 1.23 vs estimate 1.32 (surprise -6.9%)
- January 20, 2026: actual EPS 0.56 vs estimate 0.55 (surprise +1.4%)
- October 21, 2025: actual EPS 0.59 vs estimate 0.7 (surprise -15.8%)
- July 17, 2025: actual EPS 0.72 vs estimate 0.71 (surprise +1.9%)
Expected move
Drivers
-
Past earnings
Negative
The company has beaten earnings estimates only half the time, with an average surprise of -4.8%, and recent quarters have seen significant misses, setting a negative precedent.
There is no implied-move data available for this event.
Reactions over its last 19 earnings
- Median move
- 9.1%
- 75th percentile move
- 11%
- 90th percentile move
- 17.2%
- Up / down moves
- 8 / 11
- Average up move
- +9.7%
- Average down move
- -9.8%
Monitoring and close
What Netflix, Inc. reported
There is no monitoring data available for this event.
Pre-market second reading after the results
There is no second reading available for this event.
How the stock reacted
- Consolidated
- -6.9%
- Max move
- -11.9%
No verdict: the outlook took no direction, so there is nothing to score as a hit or a miss.