The Mosaic Company (MOS) earnings on August 4, 2026
More The Mosaic Company earnings
Prior outlook: Pessimistic Outcome: Partial
The company's earnings per share beat what analysts expected, but sales came in lower than forecast. The stock swung dramatically during the day before ending up 3.14%.
MOS price around the earnings
23.41
Change: +3.5%
2026-08-05, 20:00 UTC
- Price: green if it ends above the starting price; red if it ends below
- Start of the measured window
- End of the measured window
- Market open
- No trading (market closed)
- Starting price
Prior thesis
Prior outlook: Pessimistic Outcome: Partial
- Thesis published
- Results released
Pre-release: Analysts cite +21.3% upside, but catastrophic historical earnings (25% beat rate, -36.8% surprise) and sharply negative trajectory create fragile, contradictory setup.
Context analyzed before publication
- Trend
- Sharply deteriorating: -13.3 to -56.2 over 5 days. Negative 14d trend strength confirms sustained sell pressure.
Analysts
Evidence
- Analyst consensus
- Buy
- Consensus average (1-5)
- 2.25
- Analysts covering the stock
- 19
- Average price target
- 27.45
- Lowest price target
- 19
- Highest price target
- 35
- Upside to price target
- 21.3%
- Revenue growth
- 14.4%
- Forward EPS
- 1.82
- Trailing EPS
- 0.14
- Analyst moves in the last 60 days
- 3
- Strong buy: 4
- Buy: 6
- Hold: 9
- Sell: 0
- Strong sell: 1
- Strong buy
- 4
- Buy
- 6
- Hold
- 9
- Sell
- 0
- Strong sell
- 1
- June 30, 2026 · Morgan Stanley: Maintains rating (Equal-Weight → Equal-Weight)
- June 26, 2026 · Rothschild & Co: Initiates coverage (Buy)
- June 17, 2026 · Freedom Broker: Upgrades rating (Sell → Buy)
News and sentiment
Evidence
Sentiment
- Sentiment
- Constructive
- Mention volume
- High
- Normalized volume
- 99%
News
There is no news coverage available for this event.
Technicals
Evidence
- Price when the context was analyzed
- 21.8
- Average true range (ATR)
- 3.8%
- Distance to 52-week high
- -35.2%
- 14-day change (14d)
- -2.8%
- 30-day change (32d)
- +3.3%
- 30-day relative strength
- +1.6%
- SPY change (32d)
- +1.7%
- Nearest support
- 21.62
- Distance to nearest support
- 0.8%
- Nearest resistance
- 21.88
- Distance to nearest resistance
- 0.4%
- Volume accumulation ratio (14d / 46d)
- 0.82
- Mid: 21.62 (0.8% away, 0.21 ATR, 10 touches)
- Mid: 21.46 (1.5% away, 0.41 ATR, 13 touches)
- Minor: 21.24 (2.6% away, 0.68 ATR, 4 touches)
- Mid: 21.88 (0.4% away, 0.1 ATR, 10 touches)
- Mid: 22.06 (1.2% away, 0.33 ATR, 13 touches)
- Minor: 22.23 (2% away, 0.52 ATR, 5 touches)
Trends
Evidence
- Average earnings surprise
- -36.8%
- May 11, 2026: actual EPS 0.05 vs estimate 0.22 (surprise -77.3%)
- February 24, 2026: actual EPS 0.22 vs estimate 0.44 (surprise -50.5%)
- November 4, 2025: actual EPS 1.04 vs estimate 0.95 (surprise +9.4%)
- August 5, 2025: actual EPS 0.51 vs estimate 0.72 (surprise -28.9%)
Expected move
- Implied move
- +4.7%
- Source
- Options chain
Reactions over its last 20 earnings
- Median move
- 4.7%
- 75th percentile move
- 6.9%
- 90th percentile move
- 9.2%
- Up / down moves
- 11 / 9
- Average up move
- +3.9%
- Average down move
- -6.4%
Monitoring and close
What The Mosaic Company reported
- Status
- Finished
| Actual EPS | 0.13 |
|---|---|
| EPS estimate | 0.11 |
| EPS surprise | +18.2% |
| Revenue | $2,824 million |
| Revenue estimate | $3,121 million |
| Revenue surprise | -9.5% |
Mosaic reported Q2 adjusted earnings of 13 cents per share, beating estimates. Sales of $2.824 billion missed expectations. The company said business conditions remained challenging.
Sources (3)
- Mosaic Says Q2 Business Conditions Remained Challenging On Sulfur Availability And Affordability; Sees Mosaic Fertilizantes Q3 Adjusted EBITDA Below Q2 Amid Constrained Global Phosphate Supply (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga
- Mosaic beat earnings expectations with $0.13 per share, but its sales of $2.824 billion fell short of estimates. — Benzinga
- Mosaic Q2 Adj. EPS $0.13 Beats $0.11 Estimate, Sales $2.824B Miss $3.121B Estimate (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga
Pre-market second reading after the results
- Verdict
- Beat expectations
Heading into the open, results beat expectations on earnings but not on revenue, and the price is indicating -2.8% pre-market, a move in line with the stock's usual reaction (about 5%). The figures confirm the pessimistic scenario. In the 955 similar cases in our market history, the close held that direction 72% of the time.
How the stock reacted
- Outcome
- Partial
- Consolidated
- +3.1%
- Max favorable move (MFE)
- 5.2%
- Max adverse move (MAE)
- 5.7%