Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) earnings on July 29, 2026

After the market closes Q2 2026

More Microsoft Corporation earnings

Prior outlook: Optimistic Outcome: Accurate

Microsoft's stock surged nearly 16% after earnings, driven by strong results and an analyst upgrade. The market responded very positively.

MSFT price around the earnings

451.10

Change: +15.5%

2026-07-30, 20:00 UTC

Start of the measured window End of the measured window
389.69 412.66 435.63 458.60 390.54
Price series around the eventClosing price per minute from before the event to the end of the measured window.No trading (market closed)
July 29, 2026 July 30, 2026
  • Price: green if it ends above the starting price; red if it ends below
  • Start of the measured window
  • End of the measured window
  • Market open
  • No trading (market closed)
  • Starting price
Price series around the event

Prior thesis

Prior outlook: Optimistic Outcome: Accurate

Thesis published
Results released

Strong analyst conviction and 100% earnings beat rate with +42% upside, but declining trajectory (55.1→52.6) contexts elevated sell-the-news risk, and the scenario points optimistic.

Context analyzed before publication

Trend
Moderate run-up into event, trajectory declining from 55.1 to 52.6 suggesting expectations elevated.

Analysts

Evidence

Analyst consensus
Strong buy
Consensus average (1-5)
1.34
Analysts covering the stock
54
Average price target
557.25
Lowest price target
400
Highest price target
870
Upside to price target
42.1%
Quarterly earnings growth
23.1%
Revenue growth
18.3%
Forward EPS
19.38
Trailing EPS
16.8
Analyst moves in the last 60 days
10
  • Strong buy: 13
  • Buy: 40
  • Hold: 3
  • Sell: 0
  • Strong sell: 0
Strong buy
13
Buy
40
Hold
3
Sell
0
Strong sell
0
  • July 28, 2026 · Citizens: Reiterates rating (Market Outperform → Market Outperform)
  • July 27, 2026 · UBS: Maintains rating (Buy → Buy)
  • July 27, 2026 · Guggenheim: Reiterates rating (Buy → Buy)
  • July 22, 2026 · Bernstein: Reiterates rating (Outperform → Outperform)
  • July 22, 2026 · Oppenheimer: Reiterates rating (Outperform → Outperform)
  • July 22, 2026 · Truist Securities: Reiterates rating (Buy → Buy)
  • July 20, 2026 · CLSA: Initiates coverage (Outperform)
  • July 15, 2026 · Evercore ISI Group: Maintains rating (Outperform → Outperform)
  • July 15, 2026 · Mizuho: Maintains rating (Outperform → Outperform)
  • July 15, 2026 · Citigroup: Maintains rating (Buy → Buy)

News and sentiment

Evidence

Sentiment
Sentiment
Constructive
Mention volume
Low
Normalized volume
33%
News
Sources (2)

Technicals

Evidence

Price when the context was analyzed
393.44
Average true range (ATR)
2.9%
Distance to 52-week high
-27.2%
14-day change (14d)
+2.2%
30-day change (32d)
+5.9%
30-day relative strength
+10.1%
QQQ change (32d)
-4.3%
Nearest support
391.96
Distance to nearest support
0.4%
Nearest resistance
394.41
Distance to nearest resistance
0.3%
Volume accumulation ratio (14d / 46d)
1.1
  • Major: 391.96 (0.4% away, 0.13 ATR, 26 touches)
  • Mid: 390.61 (0.7% away, 0.25 ATR, 19 touches)
  • Mid: 388.78 (1.2% away, 0.41 ATR, 34 touches)
  • Major: 394.41 (0.3% away, 0.09 ATR, 26 touches)
  • Mid: 396.67 (0.8% away, 0.28 ATR, 19 touches)
  • Minor: 399.2 (1.5% away, 0.5 ATR, 7 touches)

Trends

Evidence

Average earnings surprise
+7.9%
  • April 29, 2026: actual EPS 4.27 vs estimate 4.07 (surprise +4.9%)
  • January 28, 2026: actual EPS 4.14 vs estimate 3.92 (surprise +5.7%)
  • October 29, 2025: actual EPS 4.13 vs estimate 3.66 (surprise +12.7%)
  • July 30, 2025: actual EPS 3.65 vs estimate 3.38 (surprise +8.1%)

Expected move

Implied move
+6.1%
Source
Options chain

Reactions over its last 20 earnings

Median move
4%
75th percentile move
6.4%
90th percentile move
7.9%
Up / down moves
9 / 11
Average up move
+4.8%
Average down move
-4.2%

Monitoring and close

What Microsoft Corporation reported

Status
Finished
Actual EPS4.74
EPS estimate4.24
EPS surprise+11.8%
Revenue$90,007 million
Revenue estimate$87,621 million
Revenue surprise+2.7%

Microsoft jumps 16% on strong cloud forecast, on track for record $485 billion one-day market cap gain. TSMC rises 7%, Oracle and Amazon also climb.

Sources (50)

Pre-market second reading after the results

Verdict
Beat expectations

Heading into the open, results beat expectations on both earnings and revenue and the price is indicating +9.5% pre-market, a move above the stock's usual reaction (about 4%). The figures confirm the optimistic scenario. Across our market history, in the 1,421 similar cases the close held that direction 96% of the time.

How the stock reacted

Outcome
Accurate
Consolidated
+15.5%
Max favorable move (MFE)
17.5%
Max adverse move (MAE)
0.3%