Merck & Co., Inc. (MRK) earnings on August 4, 2026

MRK price around the earnings

128.00

Change: -0.1%

Start of the measured window End of the measured window

125.70 127.50 129.31 131.11 128.10

August 4, 2026

Price: green if it ends above the starting price; red if it ends below
Start of the measured window
End of the measured window
Market open
Starting price

Price series around the event

Prior thesis

Prior outlook: No statistical edge

Thesis published: 2026-08-04, 08:55 UTC
Results released: 2026-08-04, 10:30 UTC

Neutral — solid but the scenario points to limited upside

The company has a strong recent earnings record and strong analyst support, but the stock price is already near the average target, so the scenario is mixed.

Context analyzed before publication

Summary: Neutral — solid but the scenario points to limited upside
Playbook: The stock has risen recently, and sentiment is positive, but the price is close to resistance levels, so the scenario points to limited further gains.
Trend: Expert outlook improved over five days

Analysts

Drivers

Analysts Positive
Most analysts rate the stock as a buy, and recent upgrades from major banks provide strong institutional support.

Evidence

Analyst consensus: Buy
Consensus average (1-5): 1.82
Analysts covering the stock: 26
Average price target: 135.19
Lowest price target: 105
Highest price target: 155
Upside to price target: 5.8%
Revenue growth: 4.9%
Forward EPS: 9.65
Trailing EPS: 3.55
Analyst moves in the last 60 days: 10

Strong buy: 4
Buy: 15
Hold: 8
Sell: 0
Strong sell: 1

Strong buy: 4
Buy: 15
Hold: 8
Sell: 0
Strong sell: 1

July 29, 2026 · Barclays: Maintains rating (Overweight → Overweight)
July 13, 2026 · JP Morgan: Maintains rating (Overweight → Overweight)
July 13, 2026 · BMO Capital: Maintains rating (Outperform → Outperform)
July 13, 2026 · Guggenheim: Maintains rating (Buy → Buy)
July 9, 2026 · Morgan Stanley: Maintains rating (Equal-Weight → Equal-Weight)
July 8, 2026 · RBC Capital: Reiterates rating (Outperform → Outperform)
July 8, 2026 · Wells Fargo: Maintains rating (Overweight → Overweight)
July 6, 2026 · Cantor Fitzgerald: Reiterates rating (Neutral → Neutral)
June 30, 2026 · B of A Securities: Maintains rating (Buy → Buy)
June 30, 2026 · Scotiabank: Maintains rating (Sector Outperform → Sector Outperform)

News and sentiment

Drivers

News & sentiment Neutral
Positive vaccine news and analyst upgrades are balanced by concerns about supply chain risks from China.

Evidence

Sentiment

Sentiment: Constructive
Mention volume: High
Normalized volume: 99%

News

Sources (6)

Merck-Backed Lab Gets $8.5 Million to Fast-Track a Vaccine for a Rapidly Spreading Ebola Outbreak (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga
Barclays Maintains Overweight on Merck & Co, Raises Price Target to $150 (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga
Merck Announces Strategy For Rapid, Broad And Sustainable Access To Its HIV-1 Prevention Pill Alimatravir In Low- And Middle-Income Countries (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga
Gilead, Merck Advance Potential Blockbuster Weekly HIV Pill (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga
Merck Just Won The Race For The First Cholesterol Pill: What It Means For Your Heart And Your Portfolio (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga
FDA Approval Adds New Cholesterol Treatment Option in Merck Portfolio (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga

Technicals

Drivers

Technical Negative
The stock has underperformed the broader market over the past month, and the price is near a resistance level, limiting the scenario.

Evidence

Price when the context was analyzed: 127.74
Average true range (ATR): 2.5%
Distance to 52-week high: -1.2%
14-day change (14d): +2.7%
30-day change (32d): -1.4%
30-day relative strength: -3.1%
SPY change (32d): +1.7%
Nearest support: 126.85
Distance to nearest support: 0.7%
Nearest resistance: 127.99
Distance to nearest resistance: 0.2%
Volume accumulation ratio (14d / 46d): 0.83

Mid: 126.85 (0.7% away, 0.28 ATR, 25 touches)
Mid: 126.09 (1.3% away, 0.51 ATR, 10 touches)
Mid: 124.96 (2.2% away, 0.87 ATR, 12 touches)

Mid: 127.99 (0.2% away, 0.08 ATR, 14 touches)
Mid: 128.75 (0.8% away, 0.31 ATR, 21 touches)
Mid: 130.15 (1.9% away, 0.75 ATR, 17 touches)

Trends

Evidence

Average earnings surprise: +7.4%

April 30, 2026: actual EPS -1.28 vs estimate -1.47 (surprise +13.2%)
February 3, 2026: actual EPS 2.04 vs estimate 2.01 (surprise +1.5%)
October 30, 2025: actual EPS 2.58 vs estimate 2.35 (surprise +9.8%)
July 29, 2025: actual EPS 2.13 vs estimate 2.03 (surprise +5.0%)

Expected move

Drivers

Past earnings Positive
The company has beaten earnings expectations in every quarter for the past year, with an average surprise of +7.4%, showing strong consistency.

Implied move: +3.5%
Source: Options chain

Reactions over its last 20 earnings

Median move: 2%
75th percentile move: 3.9%
90th percentile move: 6.5%
Up / down moves: 9 / 11
Average up move: +3.0%
Average down move: -3.3%

Monitoring and close

What Merck & Co., Inc. reported

Status: Finished

Actual EPS	-0.13
EPS estimate	-0.26
EPS surprise	+49.4%

Merck beats expectations and raises 2026 sales outlook on oncology strength. Profit guidance cut on acquisition charges. Optimistic.

Sources (24)

Why Merck Just Slashed Its Profit Outlook By Nearly 50% (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga
Merck's Weekly HIV Treatment Pipeline 'Interesting,' UBS Says (opens in a new tab) — MT Newswires
MRK Q2 Earnings & Sales Beat Estimates, '26 Sales View Raised (opens in a new tab) — Zacks
Merck posts better-than-expected second-quarter results on Keytruda strength (opens in a new tab) — Reuters
Merck, Pfizer Lift Full-Year Sales Outlooks Following Second-Quarter Beats (opens in a new tab) — MT Newswires
Merck Stock Rises as Wall Street Looks Past Earnings Guidance Cut to Oncology Strength (opens in a new tab) — Barrons.com
Compared to Estimates, Merck (MRK) Q2 Earnings: A Look at Key Metrics (opens in a new tab) — Zacks
Merck & Co., Inc. (MRK) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript (opens in a new tab) — SeekingAlpha
Merck (NYSE:MRK) Q2 Loss Narrows, Lifts Full-Year Sales Guidance (opens in a new tab) — ChartMill
Merck Shares Advance After Strong Second-Quarter Earnings and Higher Revenue Outlook (opens in a new tab) — InvestorsHub
Merck cuts 2026 profit forecast on Terns acquisition charges (opens in a new tab) — Quartz
Merck Stock Rises as Wall Street Looks Past Earnings Guidance Cut (opens in a new tab) — Barrons.com
Merck (MRK) Reports Q2 Loss, Beats Revenue Estimates (opens in a new tab) — Zacks
Merck shares rise on big Q2 earnings beat, adjusted FY outlook (opens in a new tab) — Investing.com
Merck (NYSE:MRK) Posts Better-Than-Expected Sales In Q2 CY2026 (opens in a new tab) — StockStory
Merck Delivers a Clean Earnings Beat on Oncology Strength. Is It Enough to Impress Wall Street? (opens in a new tab) — Barrons.com
Merck Cuts Full-Year Profit Forecast as Acquisition Costs Weigh on Bottom Line (opens in a new tab) — The Wall Street Journal
Merck & Co Lowers FY2026 Adj EPS Guidance from $5.04-$5.16 to $2.66-$2.76 vs $2.76 Est; Raises FY2026 Sales Guidance from $65.800B-$67.000B to $66.300B-$67.300B vs $66.802B Est (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga
Merck & Co Q2 Adj. EPS $(0.13) Beats $(0.27) Estimate, Sales $16.607B Beat $16.356B Estimate (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga
The Merck Product That Absolutely Demolished Wall Street's Forecasts (opens in a new tab) — Investor's Business Daily
Merck & Co., Inc., Rahway, N.J., USA Announces Second-Quarter 2026 Financial Results; Highlights Key Regulatory and Clinical Milestones Across Broad, Diverse Pipeline (opens in a new tab) — Yahoo
Merck & Co., Inc. 2026 Q2 - Results - Earnings Call Presentation (opens in a new tab) — SeekingAlpha
Cramer’s Stop Trading: Merck (opens in a new tab) — CNBC
Earnings per share: $-0.13 vs $-0.26 expected — above expectations. — Yahoo Finance

Pre-market second reading after the results

There is no second reading available for this event.

How the stock reacted

Consolidated: +0.1%
Max move: +3.0%

No verdict: the outlook took no direction, so there is nothing to score as a hit or a miss.