McDonald's Corporation (MCD) earnings on August 4, 2026

Before the market opens Q2 2026

More McDonald's Corporation earnings

Prior outlook: Pessimistic Outcome: Partial

McDonald's beat earnings expectations, but the stock's gain was modest, closing up less than 1%.

MCD price around the earnings

268.34

Change: +1.2%

2026-08-04, 20:00 UTC

Start of the measured window End of the measured window
263.43 266.57 269.71 272.85 265.23
Price series around the eventClosing price per minute from before the event to the end of the measured window.
August 4, 2026
  • Price: green if it ends above the starting price; red if it ends below
  • Start of the measured window
  • End of the measured window
  • Market open
  • Starting price
Price series around the event

Prior thesis

Prior outlook: Pessimistic Outcome: Partial

Thesis published
Results released

Cautious outlook, weak trend strength and sentiment

Analysts are optimistic about the stock's upside, but the recent price drop and weak earnings surprise history are holding back expectations. The negative sentiment is the main driver, making the outlook cautious.

Context analyzed before publication

Summary
Cautious outlook, weak trend strength and sentiment
Playbook
The stock has been underperforming the market recently, and analysts have cut their price targets. Despite a 'buy' rating, the low historical surprise and negative trend suggest a mixed scenario.
Trend
Analyst confidence weakening over recent days

Analysts

Drivers

  • Analysts Positive

    Analysts have a 'buy' rating with a price target of $324, about 22% above the current price.

Evidence

Analyst consensus
Buy
Consensus average (1-5)
2.12
Analysts covering the stock
31
Average price target
323.58
Lowest price target
250
Highest price target
407
Upside to price target
22%
Quarterly earnings growth
6.2%
Revenue growth
9.4%
Forward EPS
14.11
Trailing EPS
12.12
Analyst moves in the last 60 days
9
  • Strong buy: 4
  • Buy: 14
  • Hold: 15
  • Sell: 1
  • Strong sell: 0
Strong buy
4
Buy
14
Hold
15
Sell
1
Strong sell
0
  • July 31, 2026 · Mizuho: Maintains rating (Neutral → Neutral)
  • July 27, 2026 · UBS: Maintains rating (Buy → Buy)
  • July 24, 2026 · BTIG: Maintains rating (Buy → Buy)
  • July 23, 2026 · Evercore ISI Group: Maintains rating (Outperform → Outperform)
  • July 17, 2026 · Tigress Financial: Maintains rating (Buy → Buy)
  • July 16, 2026 · Wells Fargo: Maintains rating (Overweight → Overweight)
  • July 16, 2026 · Morgan Stanley: Maintains rating (Equal-Weight → Equal-Weight)
  • July 15, 2026 · Citigroup: Maintains rating (Buy → Buy)
  • June 29, 2026 · Keybanc: Maintains rating (Overweight → Overweight)

News and sentiment

Drivers

  • News & sentiment Neutral

    The Q2 preview focuses on the World Cup and the $3 menu — no major catalysts.

Evidence

Sentiment
Sentiment
Constructive
Mention volume
High
Normalized volume
99%
News
Sources (7)

Technicals

Drivers

  • Technical Negative

    The stock is in a downtrend, down 0.72% over 14 days and 5.25% over 30 days, underperforming the market by 6.98%.

Evidence

Price when the context was analyzed
265.68
Average true range (ATR)
2.2%
Distance to 52-week high
-19.7%
14-day change (14d)
-0.7%
30-day change (32d)
-5.3%
30-day relative strength
-7.0%
SPY change (32d)
+1.7%
Nearest support
265.46
Distance to nearest support
0.1%
Nearest resistance
267.11
Distance to nearest resistance
0.5%
Volume accumulation ratio (14d / 46d)
1.14
  • Mid: 265.46 (0.1% away, 0.04 ATR, 22 touches)
  • Mid: 263.87 (0.7% away, 0.3 ATR, 10 touches)
  • Mid: 261.94 (1.4% away, 0.63 ATR, 3 touches)
  • Mid: 267.11 (0.5% away, 0.24 ATR, 11 touches)
  • Minor: 268.12 (0.9% away, 0.41 ATR, 4 touches)
  • Mid: 269.69 (1.5% away, 0.68 ATR, 11 touches)

Trends

Evidence

Average earnings surprise
+0.8%
  • May 7, 2026: actual EPS 2.83 vs estimate 2.74 (surprise +3.1%)
  • February 11, 2026: actual EPS 3.12 vs estimate 3.05 (surprise +2.2%)
  • November 5, 2025: actual EPS 3.22 vs estimate 3.33 (surprise -3.4%)
  • August 6, 2025: actual EPS 3.19 vs estimate 3.15 (surprise +1.4%)

Expected move

Drivers

  • Past earnings Negative

    Only a 75% beat rate with an average surprise of +0.8% — a modest historical edge.

Implied move
+2.8%
Source
Options chain

Reactions over its last 20 earnings

Median move
2.1%
75th percentile move
2.9%
90th percentile move
3.7%
Up / down moves
11 / 9
Average up move
+2.8%
Average down move
-1.2%

Monitoring and close

What McDonald's Corporation reported

Status
Finished
Actual EPS3.38
EPS estimate3.32
EPS surprise+1.8%
Revenue$7,099 million
Revenue estimate$7,128 million
Revenue surprise-0.4%

McDonald's beat earnings estimates but US sales missed. YUM! Brands dropped 10.4% in a month, with $9 billion digital engine.

Sources (38)

Pre-market second reading after the results

Verdict
Beat expectations

Heading into the open, results beat expectations on earnings but not on revenue, and the price is indicating +1.0% pre-market, a move below the stock's usual reaction (about 2%). The figures don't confirm the prior scenario: the comparable cases aren't consistent enough.

How the stock reacted

Outcome
Partial
Consolidated
+1.2%
Max favorable move (MFE)
1.3%
Max adverse move (MAE)
3.2%