Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE) earnings on August 11, 2026

LITE price around the earnings

932.47

Change: +13.6%

Start of the measured window End of the measured window

785.00 845.31 905.61 965.92 820.59

August 11, 2026 August 12, 2026

Price: green if it ends above the starting price; red if it ends below
Start of the measured window
End of the measured window
Market open
No trading (market closed)
Starting price

Price series around the event

Prior thesis

Prior outlook: Pessimistic Outcome: Missed

Thesis published: 2026-08-11, 19:51 UTC
Results released: 2026-08-11, 20:03 UTC

Pessimistic outlook, risk of price drop

Experts cite strong growth potential with high analyst upside and a strong recent earnings beat record, but the recent price surge has been followed by a sharp drop, signaling that the good news may already be priced in. The negative sentiment is the main driver, outweighing the positive technical setup.

Context analyzed before publication

Summary: Pessimistic outlook, risk of price drop
Playbook: The stock recently rallied strongly but then collapsed, and it's market review above a key resistance level. The crowd's mood has turned very negative, and the rapid change in expert scores suggests the market is worried about a sell-off after earnings.
Trend: Expert opinion deteriorated sharply over the last few days

Analysts

Drivers

Analysts Positive
Analysts rate the stock as 'buy' with a target price of $1126, citing 38% above the current price, and Barclays upgraded it to Overweight.

Evidence

Analyst consensus: Buy
Consensus average (1-5): 1.54
Analysts covering the stock: 24
Average price target: 1,125.93
Lowest price target: 800
Highest price target: 1,400
Upside to price target: 38.2%
Revenue growth: 90.1%
Forward EPS: 18.73
Trailing EPS: 5.69
Analyst moves in the last 60 days: 2

Strong buy: 5
Buy: 15
Hold: 4
Sell: 0
Strong sell: 0

Strong buy: 5
Buy: 15
Hold: 4
Sell: 0
Strong sell: 0

July 20, 2026 · Barclays: Upgrades rating (Equal-Weight → Overweight)
July 13, 2026 · TD Cowen: Maintains rating (Hold → Hold)

News and sentiment

Drivers

News & sentiment Negative
The expert score collapsed from +71.3 to -11.3 in five days, indicating rapid exhaustion and heightened risk of a sell-off.

Evidence

Sentiment

Sentiment: Constructive
Mention volume: High
Normalized volume: 99%

News

Sources (3)

Lumentum Shares Up 3% After Key Trading Signal (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga
Lumentum Could Swing $9.74 Billion After Earnings (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga
Nvidia-Backed Lumentum Soaring Again: Will It Rise or Fall After Earnings? (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga

Technicals

Drivers

Technical Negative
The price is above a resistance level, and after a strong 14% rally in two weeks, the stock may be overextended.

Evidence

Price when the context was analyzed: 813.72
Average true range (ATR): 10.6%
Distance to 52-week high: -22.7%
14-day change (14d): +14.3%
30-day change (31d): +1.5%
30-day relative strength: +2.1%
QQQ change (31d): -0.7%
Nearest support: 810.24
Distance to nearest support: 0.4%
Nearest resistance: 823.8
Distance to nearest resistance: 1.2%
Volume accumulation ratio (14d / 46d): 1.03

Mid: 810.24 (0.4% away, 0.04 ATR, 24 touches)
Mid: 782.71 (3.8% away, 0.36 ATR, 23 touches)
Minor: 772.05 (5.1% away, 0.48 ATR, 8 touches)

Mid: 823.8 (1.2% away, 0.12 ATR, 20 touches)
Mid: 839.62 (3.2% away, 0.3 ATR, 27 touches)
Major: 864.96 (6.3% away, 0.59 ATR, 26 touches)

Trends

Drivers

Macro & trends Positive
Demand for AI and optical components is driving sector strength, and the ban on Chinese optics is creating a tailwind.

Evidence

Average earnings surprise: +9.8%

May 5, 2026: actual EPS 2.37 vs estimate 2.27 (surprise +4.6%)
February 3, 2026: actual EPS 1.67 vs estimate 1.41 (surprise +18.6%)
November 4, 2025: actual EPS 1.1 vs estimate 1.03 (surprise +7.0%)
August 12, 2025: actual EPS 0.88 vs estimate 0.81 (surprise +8.9%)

Expected move

Drivers

Past earnings Positive
The company beat earnings expectations in all of the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 9.8%.

Implied move: +7.9%
Source: Options chain

Reactions over its last 20 earnings

Median move: 6.4%
75th percentile move: 13.9%
90th percentile move: 16.8%
Up / down moves: 10 / 10
Average up move: +7.7%
Average down move: -8.5%

Monitoring and close

What Lumentum Holdings Inc. reported

Status: Finished

Actual EPS	3.23
EPS estimate	2.97
EPS surprise	+8.8%
Revenue	$1,006 million
Revenue estimate	$988 million
Revenue surprise	+1.8%

Lumentum reported Q4 earnings and revenue that topped estimates. The CEO noted data centers are increasingly using optical links. Q1 2027 guidance came in slightly above views.

Sources (6)

Lumentum Beats Q4 Estimates: CEO Says Data Centers Turn Increasingly to Optical Links (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga
Lumentum Earnings, Revenue Top Estimates As New Products Ramp (opens in a new tab) — Investor's Business Daily
Lumentum Holdings Sees Q1 Adj EPS $4.05-$4.35 vs $3.61 Est; Sees Sales $1.225B-$1.275B vs $1.159B Est (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga
Lumentum beat expectations with adjusted EPS of $3.23 and sales of $1.006B, above forecasts. — Benzinga
Lumentum Holdings Q4 Adj. EPS $3.23 Beats $2.97 Estimate, Sales $1.006B Beat $987.892M Estimate (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga
Lumentum Shares Up 3% After Key Trading Signal (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga

Pre-market second reading after the results

Verdict: Beat expectations

Heading into the open, results beat expectations on both earnings and revenue, and the price is indicating +8.1% pre-market, a move in line with the stock's usual reaction (about 6%). The figures overturn the prior pessimistic scenario. In the 1,468 similar cases in our market history, the close held that direction 96% of the time.

How the stock reacted

Outcome: Missed
Consolidated: +13.6%
Max favorable move (MFE): 5.3%
Max adverse move (MAE): 17.8%