International Paper Company (IP) earnings on July 30, 2026

IP price around the earnings

43.15

Change: +1.2%

42.12 42.60 43.08 43.56 42.62

July 30, 2026

Price: green if it ends above the starting price; red if it ends below
Market open
Starting price

Price series around the event

Prior thesis

Prior outlook: Pessimistic Outcome: Partial

Thesis published: 2026-07-30, 09:59 UTC
Results released: 2026-07-30, 11:01 UTC

Catastrophic past earnings and mill shutdown create structural headwinds; recent trend strength and analyst upgrades provide limited offset given minimal target upside.

Context analyzed before publication

Trend: Strong 14d run-up (+15.94%) into earnings, but trajectory volatility and past earnings suggest sell-the-news risk.

Analysts

Evidence

Analyst consensus: Buy
Consensus average (1-5): 1.92
Analysts covering the stock: 11
Average price target: 43.64
Lowest price target: 39
Highest price target: 61
Upside to price target: 2.3%
Revenue growth: 13.4%
Forward EPS: 2.86
Trailing EPS: -5.02
Analyst moves in the last 60 days: 6

Strong buy: 3
Buy: 5
Hold: 4
Sell: 0
Strong sell: 0

Strong buy: 3
Buy: 5
Hold: 4
Sell: 0
Strong sell: 0

July 28, 2026 · JP Morgan: Upgrades rating (Neutral → Overweight)
July 17, 2026 · RBC Capital: Maintains rating (Outperform → Outperform)
July 15, 2026 · Truist Securities: Maintains rating (Buy → Buy)
July 9, 2026 · Citigroup: Maintains rating (Buy → Buy)
July 9, 2026 · JP Morgan: Maintains rating (Neutral → Neutral)
July 9, 2026 · Wells Fargo: Maintains rating (Overweight → Overweight)

News and sentiment

Evidence

Sentiment

Sentiment: Constructive
Mention volume: Low
Normalized volume: 33%

News

Sources (7)

RBC Capital Maintains Outperform on International Paper, Raises Price Target to $48 (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga
International Paper To Shut Down Its Carrollton South Packaging Site In Texas By End Of Q3 (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga
Truist Securities Maintains Buy on International Paper, Raises Price Target to $46 (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga
Reported Earlier, International Paper Temporarily Suspends Operations At Pine Hill, Alabama Mill After Weather Event Damaged Critical Roof (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga
Citigroup Maintains Buy on International Paper, Raises Price Target to $43 (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga
JP Morgan Maintains Neutral on International Paper, Raises Price Target to $51 (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga
Wells Fargo Maintains Overweight on International Paper, Raises Price Target to $42 (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga

Technicals

Evidence

Price when the context was analyzed: 42.62
Average true range (ATR): 4.2%
Distance to 52-week high: -16.7%
14-day change (14d): +15.9%
30-day change (30d): +11.4%
30-day relative strength: +13.0%
SPY change (30d): -1.5%
Nearest support: 42.14
Distance to nearest support: 1.1%
Nearest resistance: 42.63
Distance to nearest resistance: 0%
Volume accumulation ratio (14d / 46d): 1.14

Mid: 42.14 (1.1% away, 0.27 ATR, 10 touches)
Mid: 41.59 (2.4% away, 0.57 ATR, 9 touches)
Minor: 41.02 (3.8% away, 0.89 ATR, 1 touches)

Mid: 42.63 (0% away, 0 ATR, 10 touches)
Mid: 42.99 (0.9% away, 0.2 ATR, 12 touches)
Mid: 43.41 (1.9% away, 0.44 ATR, 22 touches)

Trends

Evidence

Average earnings surprise: -87.6%

April 30, 2026: actual EPS 0.15 vs estimate 0.14 (surprise +5.4%)
January 29, 2026: actual EPS -0.08 vs estimate 0.25 (surprise -131.9%)
October 30, 2025: actual EPS -0.43 vs estimate 0.59 (surprise -173.0%)
July 31, 2025: actual EPS 0.2 vs estimate 0.41 (surprise -51.1%)

Expected move

Implied move: +8.5%
Source: Options chain

Reactions over its last 20 earnings

Median move: 4.1%
75th percentile move: 6.7%
90th percentile move: 12.6%
Up / down moves: 6 / 14
Average up move: +5.1%
Average down move: -4.8%

Monitoring and close

What International Paper Company reported

Status: Finished

Actual EPS	0.04
EPS estimate	-0.01
EPS surprise	+500.0%
Revenue	$6,004 million
Revenue estimate	$6,177 million
Revenue surprise	-2.8%

International Paper's fair value estimate rose to US$43.64 from US$39.36, with analysts offering mixed views on containerboard pricing amid demand and cost pressures.

Sources (12)

International Paper (IP) Stock Fair Value Rises After Split Analyst Calls On Containerboard Pricing (opens in a new tab) — Simply Wall St.
IP Q2 Earnings Beat Estimates, Decline Y/Y on High Maintenance Costs (opens in a new tab) — Zacks
International Paper Company (IP) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript (opens in a new tab) — SeekingAlpha
International Paper Tops Earnings Estimates Despite Revenue Shortfall (opens in a new tab) — InvestorsHub
IP’s box volumes rise, but external conditions mute demand (opens in a new tab) — Packaging Dive
International Paper (NYSE:IP) Reports Sales Below Analyst Estimates In Q2 CY2026 Earnings (opens in a new tab) — StockStory
International Paper (NYSE:IP) Beats Q2 Earnings Expectations Despite Revenue Miss (opens in a new tab) — ChartMill
International Paper reported adjusted EPS of $0.04, beating the -$0.01 estimate, but revenue of $6.004B missed the $6.177B estimate. — Benzinga
International Paper Q2 Adj. EPS $0.04 Beats $(0.01) Estimate, Sales $6.004B Miss $6.177B Estimate (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga
International Paper Reports Second Quarter 2026 Results (opens in a new tab) — Yahoo
International Paper Company 2026 Q2 - Results - Earnings Call Presentation (opens in a new tab) — SeekingAlpha
Tech Earnings, Central Bank Decisions: What to Watch the Rest of the Week (opens in a new tab) — The Wall Street Journal

Pre-market second reading after the results

Verdict: Beat expectations

Heading into the open, results beat expectations on earnings but not on revenue. The figures overturn the prior pessimistic scenario. Based on the figures alone (no pre-open price): across our market history, in the 7,988 similar cases the close followed that direction 59% of the time.

How the stock reacted

Outcome: Partial
Consolidated: +1.2%
Max favorable move (MFE): 1.2%
Max adverse move (MAE): 3.3%