Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (ICE) earnings on July 30, 2026

ICE price around the earnings

156.27

Change: +1.1%

Start of the measured window End of the measured window

151.25 153.55 155.84 158.14 154.58

July 30, 2026

Price: green if it ends above the starting price; red if it ends below
Start of the measured window
End of the measured window
Market open
No trading (market closed)
Starting price

Price series around the event

Prior thesis

Prior outlook: No statistical edge

Thesis published: 2026-07-30, 09:59 UTC
Results released: 2026-07-30, 11:30 UTC

Strong historical beats and high analyst upside, but recent PT cuts and a significant run-up suggest profit-taking risk.

Context analyzed before publication

Trend: Significant run-up followed by a recent pullback, suggesting profit-taking risk after high expectations.

Analysts

Evidence

Analyst consensus: Strong buy
Consensus average (1-5): 1.5
Analysts covering the stock: 15
Average price target: 181.93
Lowest price target: 159
Highest price target: 240
Upside to price target: 17.9%
Quarterly earnings growth: 77.3%
Revenue growth: 20.4%
Forward EPS: 8.72
Trailing EPS: 6.94
Analyst moves in the last 60 days: 6

Strong buy: 6
Buy: 9
Hold: 1
Sell: 0
Strong sell: 0

Strong buy: 6
Buy: 9
Hold: 1
Sell: 0
Strong sell: 0

July 15, 2026 · Piper Sandler: Maintains rating (Overweight → Overweight)
July 10, 2026 · Morgan Stanley: Maintains rating (Equal-Weight → Equal-Weight)
July 9, 2026 · Barclays: Maintains rating (Overweight → Overweight)
July 7, 2026 · UBS: Maintains rating (Buy → Buy)
June 30, 2026 · Goldman Sachs: Maintains rating (Buy → Buy)
June 22, 2026 · TD Cowen: Maintains rating (Buy → Buy)

News and sentiment

Evidence

Sentiment

Sentiment: Constructive
Mention volume: Low
Normalized volume: 33%

News

Sources (6)

Piper Sandler Maintains Overweight on Intercontinental Exchange, Lowers Price Target to $190 (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga
Morgan Stanley Maintains Equal-Weight on Intercontinental Exchange, Lowers Price Target to $163 (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga
Barclays Maintains Overweight on Intercontinental Exchange, Lowers Price Target to $180 (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga
UBS Maintains Buy on Intercontinental Exchange, Lowers Price Target to $190 (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga
Intercontinental Exchange's June Total Financials ADV Rises 27% YoY; Q2 Financials ADV Rises 22% YoY (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga
Goldman Sachs Maintains Buy on Intercontinental Exchange, Lowers Price Target to $180 (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga

Technicals

Evidence

Price when the context was analyzed: 154.5
Average true range (ATR): 2.4%
Distance to 52-week high: -17.1%
14-day change (14d): +10.5%
30-day change (30d): +25.7%
30-day relative strength: +27.3%
SPY change (30d): -1.5%
Nearest support: 154.06
Distance to nearest support: 0.3%
Nearest resistance: 155.34
Distance to nearest resistance: 0.6%
Volume accumulation ratio (14d / 46d): 0.91

Major: 154.06 (0.3% away, 0.12 ATR, 28 touches)
Mid: 152.44 (1.3% away, 0.56 ATR, 18 touches)
Mid: 151.18 (2.2% away, 0.91 ATR, 20 touches)

Major: 155.34 (0.6% away, 0.23 ATR, 38 touches)
Major: 156.6 (1.4% away, 0.57 ATR, 40 touches)
Major: 157.29 (1.8% away, 0.76 ATR, 51 touches)

Trends

Evidence

Average earnings surprise: +3.7%

April 30, 2026: actual EPS 2.35 vs estimate 2.26 (surprise +3.9%)
February 5, 2026: actual EPS 1.71 vs estimate 1.67 (surprise +2.2%)
October 30, 2025: actual EPS 1.71 vs estimate 1.61 (surprise +6.4%)
July 31, 2025: actual EPS 1.81 vs estimate 1.77 (surprise +2.3%)

Expected move

Implied move: +4.6%
Source: Options chain

Reactions over its last 20 earnings

Median move: 1.9%
75th percentile move: 3.4%
90th percentile move: 4.9%
Up / down moves: 9 / 11
Average up move: +2.8%
Average down move: -2.2%

Monitoring and close

What Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. reported

Status: Finished

Actual EPS	1.9
EPS estimate	1.84
EPS surprise	+3.3%
Revenue	$2,666 million
Revenue estimate	$2,627 million
Revenue surprise	+1.5%

ICE Q2 2026 earnings call transcript released. Previously, ICE beat estimates on data growth and mortgage strength, with strong cash flow supporting capital returns.

Sources (16)

NYSE Parent Intercontinental Exchange to Buy MarketAxess for $6 Billion (opens in a new tab) — MT Newswires
Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (ICE) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript (opens in a new tab) — SeekingAlpha
ICE Reports Strong Second Quarter as Earnings Top Expectations (opens in a new tab) — InvestorsHub
IntercontinentalExchange (ICE) Surpasses Q2 Earnings and Revenue Estimates (opens in a new tab) — Zacks
Here's What Key Metrics Tell Us About ICE (ICE) Q2 Earnings (opens in a new tab) — Zacks
MarketAxess Stock Surges 30% on $6 Billion Intercontinental Exchange Purchase (opens in a new tab) — Barrons.com
Intercontinental Exchange (NYSE:ICE) Beats Q2 Estimates on Record Open Interest, Boosts Buyback (opens in a new tab) — ChartMill
Intercontinental Exchange (NYSE:ICE) Exceeds Q2 CY2026 Expectations (opens in a new tab) — StockStory
Intercontinental Exchanges Increases Share Buyback Authorization Up To $4B, Effective July 1 (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga
Intercontinental Exchange Approves Third Quarter Dividend of $0.52 per Share (opens in a new tab) — Yahoo
Intercontinental Exchange reported adjusted earnings of $1.90 per share, beating the $1.84 estimate, and revenue of $2.666B, above the $2.627B forecast. — Benzinga
Intercontinental Exchange Q2 Adj. EPS $1.90 Beats $1.84 Estimate, Sales $2.666B Beat $2.627B Estimate (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga
Intercontinental Exchange Reports Second Quarter 2026 (opens in a new tab) — Yahoo
Intercontinental Exchange To Acquire MarketAxess For $167 Per Share In Cash; Deal Expected To Be Adjusted EPS Accretive In First Year (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga
Intercontinental Exchange to Acquire MarketAxess, Creating a Premier Fixed Income Marketplace (opens in a new tab) — Yahoo
Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. 2026 Q2 - Results - Earnings Call Presentation (opens in a new tab) — SeekingAlpha

Pre-market second reading after the results

Verdict: Beat expectations

Heading into the open, results beat expectations on both earnings and revenue, and the price is indicating a 1.5% decline pre-market, a move in line with the stock's typical reaction (about 2%). The figures do not confirm the prior scenario: there was no prior directional scenario to check against.

How the stock reacted

Consolidated: +0.7%
Max move: +2.6%

No verdict: the outlook took no direction, so there is nothing to score as a hit or a miss.