Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO) earnings on July 29, 2026
More Fair Isaac Corporation earnings
Prior outlook: Optimistic Outcome: Missed
Fair Isaac's stock suffered a massive drop, falling nearly 18% as investors reacted negatively to the quarterly results.
FICO price around the earnings
1139.54
Change: -17.0%
2026-07-30, 20:00 UTC
Start of the measured window
End of the measured window
1127.28
1219.60
1311.92
1404.24
1373.08
July 29, 2026
July 30, 2026
- Price: green if it ends above the starting price; red if it ends below
- Start of the measured window
- End of the measured window
- Market open
- No trading (market closed)
- Starting price
Prior thesis
Prior outlook: Optimistic Outcome: Missed
- Thesis published
- Results released
Strong optimistic setup with a strong recent earnings history and analyst targets, but extreme retail crowding and trajectory moderation context high expectations priced in.
Context analyzed before publication
- Trend
- Strong 30d trend strength (+13%) into earnings, but trajectory moderated from 47.5 to 44.0, indicating peak expectations.
Analysts
Evidence
- Analyst consensus
- Buy
- Consensus average (1-5)
- 1.81
- Analysts covering the stock
- 20
- Average price target
- 1,534.55
- Lowest price target
- 707
- Highest price target
- 2,400
- Upside to price target
- 10.7%
- Quarterly earnings growth
- 62.6%
- Revenue growth
- 38.7%
- Forward EPS
- 54.55
- Trailing EPS
- 31.53
- Analyst moves in the last 60 days
- 3
- Strong buy: 5
- Buy: 11
- Hold: 4
- Sell: 1
- Strong sell: 0
- Strong buy
- 5
- Buy
- 11
- Hold
- 4
- Sell
- 1
- Strong sell
- 0
- July 2, 2026 · UBS: Maintains rating (Neutral → Neutral)
- June 16, 2026 · UBS: Maintains rating (Neutral → Neutral)
- June 9, 2026 · Needham: Reiterates rating (Buy → Buy)
News and sentiment
Evidence
Sentiment
- Sentiment
- Constructive
- Mention volume
- Low
- Normalized volume
- 33%
News
Sources (1)
- UBS Maintains Neutral on Fair Isaac, Raises Price Target to $1270 (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga
Technicals
Evidence
- Price when the context was analyzed
- 1,335.57
- Average true range (ATR)
- 4.4%
- Distance to 52-week high
- -26.3%
- 14-day change (14d)
- +10.3%
- 30-day change (32d)
- +13.0%
- 30-day relative strength
- +11.5%
- SPY change (32d)
- +1.6%
- Nearest support
- 1,332.67
- Distance to nearest support
- 0.2%
- Nearest resistance
- 1,348.67
- Distance to nearest resistance
- 1%
- Volume accumulation ratio (14d / 46d)
- 0.8
- Mid: 1,332.66 (0.2% away, 0.05 ATR, 20 touches)
- Mid: 1,318.51 (1.3% away, 0.29 ATR, 8 touches)
- Mid: 1,307.92 (2.1% away, 0.48 ATR, 4 touches)
- Minor: 1,348.67 (1% away, 0.23 ATR, 7 touches)
- Mid: 1,372.57 (2.8% away, 0.64 ATR, 10 touches)
- Mid: 1,388.8 (4% away, 0.92 ATR, 14 touches)
Trends
Evidence
- Average earnings surprise
- +8.5%
- April 28, 2026: actual EPS 12.5 vs estimate 10.97 (surprise +13.9%)
- January 28, 2026: actual EPS 7.33 vs estimate 7.08 (surprise +3.5%)
- November 5, 2025: actual EPS 7.74 vs estimate 7.36 (surprise +5.2%)
- July 30, 2025: actual EPS 8.57 vs estimate 7.7 (surprise +11.3%)
Expected move
- Implied move
- +3.2%
- Source
- Options chain
Reactions over its last 20 earnings
- Median move
- 2.8%
- 75th percentile move
- 5.2%
- 90th percentile move
- 7.9%
- Up / down moves
- 12 / 8
- Average up move
- +6.3%
- Average down move
- -3.5%
Monitoring and close
What Fair Isaac Corporation reported
- Status
- Finished
| Actual EPS | 12.18 |
|---|---|
| EPS estimate | 11.73 |
| EPS surprise | +3.8% |
| Revenue | $674 million |
| Revenue estimate | $679 million |
| Revenue surprise | -0.7% |
FICO drops among worst S&P 500 performers. Pessimistic outlook after mixed results. New movers in today's session.
Sources (16)
- RBC Capital Maintains Outperform on Fair Isaac, Lowers Price Target to $1525 (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga
- Fair Isaac Q3 Earnings Beat Estimates on Scores, Revenues Up Y/Y (opens in a new tab) — Zacks
- Wells Fargo Maintains Overweight on Fair Isaac, Raises Price Target to $1450 (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga
- Needham Reiterates Buy on Fair Isaac, Maintains $1650 Price Target (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga
- Fair Isaac Corp (FICO) (Q3 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Record Revenue and EPS Growth Fueled ... (opens in a new tab) — GuruFocus.com
- Fair Isaac Q3 Earnings Call Highlights (opens in a new tab) — MarketBeat
- Fair Isaac Corporation 2026 Q3 - Results - Earnings Call Presentation (opens in a new tab) — SeekingAlpha
- Fair Isaac (FICO) Surpasses Q3 Earnings Estimates (opens in a new tab) — Zacks
- Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript (opens in a new tab) — SeekingAlpha
- Fair Isaac (FICO) Reports Q3 Earnings: What Key Metrics Have to Say (opens in a new tab) — Zacks
- Fair Isaac Corporation (NYSE:FICO) Misses Q2 CY2026 Revenue Estimates, Stock Drops (opens in a new tab) — StockStory
- Fair Isaac Raises FY2026 GAAP EPS Guidance from $35.60 to $36.86 vs $38.08 Est (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga
- Fair Isaac Raises FY2026 Adj EPS Guidance from $40.45 to $42.43 vs $43.18 Est; Raises FY2026 Sales Guidance from $2.450B to $2.530B vs $2.555B Est (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga
- Fair Isaac posted adjusted EPS of $12.18, beating the $11.73 estimate, but revenue of $674.2M missed the $678.9M forecast. — Benzinga
- Fair Isaac Q3 Adj. EPS $12.18 Beats $11.73 Estimate, Sales $674.188M Miss $678.871M Estimate (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga
- FICO Announces Earnings of $10.45 per Share for Third Quarter Fiscal 2026 (opens in a new tab) — Yahoo
Pre-market second reading after the results
- Verdict
- Mixed results
Heading into the open, earnings beat expectations on profit but missed on revenue, and the stock is indicating -11.2% pre-market, a move 4 times larger than its typical 3% reaction. The figures overturn the prior optimistic scenario. In the 716 similar past cases, the close held that direction 96% of the time.
How the stock reacted
- Outcome
- Missed
- Consolidated
- -17.0%
- Max favorable move (MFE)
- 0.8%
- Max adverse move (MAE)
- 18.1%