EMCOR Group, Inc. (EME) earnings on July 30, 2026

Before the market opens Q2 2026

More EMCOR Group, Inc. earnings

Prior outlook: Pessimistic Outcome: Missed

EME's stock surged nearly 20% after a strong market reaction, despite some investors betting against it beforehand.

EME price around the earnings

802.37

Change: +19.3%

2026-07-30, 20:00 UTC

End of the measured window
672.48 717.44 762.40 807.36 672.48
Price series around the eventClosing price per minute from before the event to the end of the measured window.
July 30, 2026
  • Price: green if it ends above the starting price; red if it ends below
  • End of the measured window
  • Market open
  • Starting price
Price series around the event

Prior thesis

Prior outlook: Pessimistic Outcome: Missed

Thesis published
Results released

Analysts maintain high upside and strong recent beat history, but severe negative trend and data center moratorium create headwinds.

Context analyzed before publication

Trend
Score declined from -0.9 to -27.9 then stabilized at -26.2; severe negative trend strength into event creates sell-the-news ri

Analysts

Evidence

Analyst consensus
Buy
Consensus average (1-5)
1.6
Analysts covering the stock
7
Average price target
991.57
Lowest price target
825
Highest price target
1,123
Upside to price target
47.4%
Quarterly earnings growth
26.9%
Revenue growth
19.7%
Forward EPS
32.93
Trailing EPS
28.38
Analyst moves in the last 60 days
1
  • Strong buy: 0
  • Buy: 7
  • Hold: 3
  • Sell: 0
  • Strong sell: 0
Strong buy
0
Buy
7
Hold
3
Sell
0
Strong sell
0
  • June 16, 2026 · Cantor Fitzgerald: Reiterates rating (Overweight → Overweight)

News and sentiment

Evidence

Sentiment
Sentiment
Constructive
Mention volume
Low
Normalized volume
33%
News

There is no news coverage available for this event.

Technicals

Evidence

Price when the context was analyzed
671.53
Average true range (ATR)
4.4%
Distance to 52-week high
-28.7%
14-day change (14d)
-12.7%
30-day change (30d)
-17.5%
30-day relative strength
-16.0%
SPY change (30d)
-1.5%
Nearest support
664.26
Distance to nearest support
1.1%
Nearest resistance
671.87
Distance to nearest resistance
0.1%
Volume accumulation ratio (14d / 46d)
1.12
  • Mid: 664.26 (1.1% away, 0.25 ATR, 15 touches)
  • Minor: 656.4 (2.3% away, 0.52 ATR, 8 touches)
  • Mid: 651.34 (3% away, 0.69 ATR, 14 touches)
  • Mid: 671.87 (0.1% away, 0.01 ATR, 8 touches)
  • Mid: 680.47 (1.3% away, 0.31 ATR, 11 touches)
  • Mid: 688.86 (2.6% away, 0.59 ATR, 11 touches)

Trends

Evidence

Average earnings surprise
+10.4%
  • April 29, 2026: actual EPS 6.84 vs estimate 5.9 (surprise +15.8%)
  • February 26, 2026: actual EPS 7.19 vs estimate 6.68 (surprise +7.6%)
  • October 30, 2025: actual EPS 6.57 vs estimate 6.53 (surprise +0.7%)
  • July 31, 2025: actual EPS 6.72 vs estimate 5.72 (surprise +17.4%)

Expected move

Implied move
+3.2%
Source
Options chain

Reactions over its last 20 earnings

Median move
5.4%
75th percentile move
6.9%
90th percentile move
10.2%
Up / down moves
12 / 8
Average up move
+5.9%
Average down move
-5.4%

Monitoring and close

What EMCOR Group, Inc. reported

Status
Finished
Actual EPS9.06
EPS estimate7.21
EPS surprise+25.7%
Revenue$5,154 million
Revenue estimate$4,709 million
Revenue surprise+9.4%

EMCOR beat Q2 estimates with record revenue and growth. Raised 2026 outlook. Q2 earnings call transcript now available. Stock rose.

Sources (11)

Pre-market second reading after the results

Verdict
Beat expectations

Heading into the open, results beat expectations on both earnings and revenue and the price is indicating +11.6% pre-market, a move above the stock's usual reaction (about 5%). The figures overturn the prior pessimistic scenario. Across our market history, in the 1,045 similar cases the close held that direction 96% of the time.

How the stock reacted

Outcome
Missed
Consolidated
+19.3%
Max favorable move (MFE)
0%
Max adverse move (MAE)
20.1%