Cummins Inc. (CMI) earnings on August 4, 2026

Before the market opens Q2 2026

More Cummins Inc. earnings

Prior outlook: Optimistic Outcome: Partial

The stock seesawed dramatically, jumping 3.26% before plunging to a 12.92% loss, then recovering slightly to close 1.99% lower.

CMI price around the earnings

635.96

Change: -2.0%

2026-08-04, 20:00 UTC

Start of the measured window End of the measured window
564.97 600.41 635.85 671.29 648.85
Price series around the eventClosing price per minute from before the event to the end of the measured window.
August 4, 2026
  • Price: green if it ends above the starting price; red if it ends below
  • Start of the measured window
  • End of the measured window
  • Market open
  • Starting price
Price series around the event

Prior thesis

Prior outlook: Optimistic Outcome: Partial

Thesis published
Results released

Optimistic outlook, the scenario is optimistic.

Experts see a contrarian setup: the company has beaten earnings expectations 75% of the time and analysts cite about 16% upside, even though the stock has recently dipped. The main risk is that many retail investors are already on board, which could limit further gains.

Context analyzed before publication

Summary
Optimistic outlook, the scenario is optimistic.
Playbook
The stock has underperformed the broader market over the past month, while analyst price targets sit well above the current price. This gap between price and expectations suggests the market may be pricing in more caution than analysts do.
Trend
Expert confidence rising over the week

Analysts

Drivers

  • Analysts Positive

    Most analysts rate the stock a buy, and their average price target is about 16% higher than the current price. Several major banks have recently raised their targets.

Evidence

Analyst consensus
Buy
Consensus average (1-5)
1.95
Analysts covering the stock
19
Average price target
754.86
Lowest price target
520
Highest price target
901
Upside to price target
16.3%
Quarterly earnings growth
-20.6%
Revenue growth
2.7%
Forward EPS
34.12
Trailing EPS
19.28
Analyst moves in the last 60 days
5
  • Strong buy: 4
  • Buy: 10
  • Hold: 7
  • Sell: 0
  • Strong sell: 1
Strong buy
4
Buy
10
Hold
7
Sell
0
Strong sell
1
  • July 17, 2026 · Morgan Stanley: Maintains rating (Overweight → Overweight)
  • July 14, 2026 · Citigroup: Maintains rating (Buy → Buy)
  • July 2, 2026 · Truist Securities: Maintains rating (Buy → Buy)
  • June 17, 2026 · Wells Fargo: Maintains rating (Overweight → Overweight)
  • June 8, 2026 · UBS: Upgrades rating (Neutral → Buy)

News and sentiment

Evidence

Sentiment
Sentiment
Constructive
Mention volume
High
Normalized volume
99%
News
Sources (3)

Technicals

Drivers

  • Technical Negative

    The stock's trend strength has been weaker than the broader market over the past month, showing a recent price decline that contrasts with analyst optimism.

Evidence

Price when the context was analyzed
649.71
Average true range (ATR)
3.8%
Distance to 52-week high
-12.8%
14-day change (14d)
+1.6%
30-day change (32d)
-1.8%
30-day relative strength
-3.5%
SPY change (32d)
+1.7%
Nearest support
646.15
Distance to nearest support
0.6%
Nearest resistance
654.5
Distance to nearest resistance
0.7%
Volume accumulation ratio (14d / 46d)
1.14
  • Mid: 646.15 (0.6% away, 0.15 ATR, 17 touches)
  • Mid: 638.58 (1.7% away, 0.45 ATR, 16 touches)
  • Mid: 629.99 (3% away, 0.8 ATR, 16 touches)
  • Major: 654.5 (0.7% away, 0.2 ATR, 37 touches)
  • Mid: 663.03 (2.1% away, 0.54 ATR, 12 touches)
  • Mid: 671.39 (3.3% away, 0.88 ATR, 30 touches)

Trends

Evidence

Average earnings surprise
+6.9%
  • May 5, 2026: actual EPS 6.15 vs estimate 5.65 (surprise +8.8%)
  • February 5, 2026: actual EPS 5.81 vs estimate 5.08 (surprise +14.3%)
  • November 6, 2025: actual EPS 3.86 vs estimate 4.77 (surprise -19.0%)
  • August 5, 2025: actual EPS 6.43 vs estimate 5.21 (surprise +23.5%)

Expected move

Drivers

  • Past earnings Positive

    The company has beaten earnings expectations in 3 of the last 4 quarters, with an average surprise of about 7% above what analysts expected.

Implied move
+2.9%
Source
Options chain

Reactions over its last 20 earnings

Median move
3.1%
75th percentile move
4.6%
90th percentile move
7.6%
Up / down moves
12 / 8
Average up move
+3.4%
Average down move
-3.6%

Monitoring and close

What Cummins Inc. reported

Status
Finished
Actual EPS6.73
EPS estimate7.33
EPS surprise-8.2%
Revenue$9,457 million
Revenue estimate$9,330 million
Revenue surprise+1.4%

Cummins posted record revenue but missed earnings estimates. Shares fell over 8%. Flat North American demand keeps the outlook pessimistic.

Sources (14)

Pre-market second reading after the results

Verdict
Missed expectations

Heading into the open, results beat expectations on revenue but not on earnings, and the price is indicating -7.9% pre-market, a move 3x the stock's usual reaction (about 3%). The figures overturn the prior optimistic scenario. In the 1,059 similar cases in our market history, the close held that direction 96% of the time.

How the stock reacted

Outcome
Partial
Consolidated
-2.0%
Max favorable move (MFE)
3.3%
Max adverse move (MAE)
12.9%