Coherent Corp. (COHR) earnings on August 12, 2026

After the market closes Q2 2026

More Coherent Corp. earnings

Prior outlook: Pessimistic Outcome: Accurate

Coherent's stock ended down about 8% despite beating quarterly expectations and getting analyst price target increases. The market's reaction was negative, possibly due to concerns about the company's outlook.

COHR price around the earnings

327.23

Change: -8.0%

2026-08-13, 20:00 UTC

Start of the measured window End of the measured window
325.40 342.26 359.12 375.98 355.64
Price series around the eventClosing price per minute from before the event to the end of the measured window.No trading (market closed)
August 12, 2026 August 13, 2026
  • Price: green if it ends above the starting price; red if it ends below
  • Start of the measured window
  • End of the measured window
  • Market open
  • No trading (market closed)
  • Starting price
Price series around the event

Prior thesis

Prior outlook: Pessimistic Outcome: Accurate

Thesis published
Results released

High expectations, but recent surge raises risk

Analysts are optimistic about the company's upcoming earnings, given a strong recent record of beating expectations and strong interest in AI. However, the stock has risen sharply recently, and with so many investors piling in, there's a real chance the good news is already priced in.

Context analyzed before publication

Summary
High expectations, but recent surge raises risk
Playbook
The stock has climbed over 35% in two weeks, market review well above its nearest support level. Crowd sentiment is extremely optimistic, which historically has sometimes led to sharp pullbacks after earnings are released.
Trend
Expert optimism fading as stock surges

Analysts

Drivers

  • Analysts Positive

    Analysts are very positive, with an average price target 11% above the current price, and they've raised their forecasts for the next quarter, but the scenario points pessimistic.

Evidence

Analyst consensus
Buy
Consensus average (1-5)
1.67
Analysts covering the stock
21
Average price target
394.62
Lowest price target
230
Highest price target
465
Upside to price target
11.4%
Quarterly earnings growth
1,118.3%
Revenue growth
20.5%
Forward EPS
8.37
Trailing EPS
2.1
Analyst moves in the last 60 days
2
  • Strong buy: 4
  • Buy: 12
  • Hold: 5
  • Sell: 0
  • Strong sell: 0
Strong buy
4
Buy
12
Hold
5
Sell
0
Strong sell
0
  • July 2, 2026 · Raymond James: Maintains rating (Strong Buy → Strong Buy)
  • June 25, 2026 · Rosenblatt: Maintains rating (Buy → Buy)

News and sentiment

Drivers

  • News & sentiment Positive

    News reports suggest analysts expect strong earnings, and there's a lot of excitement around AI-related companies, but the scenario points pessimistic.

Evidence

Sentiment
Sentiment
Constructive
Mention volume
High
Normalized volume
99%
News
Sources (5)

Technicals

Drivers

  • Technical Negative

    The stock has risen 35% in just two weeks, which is a very fast move. It's now market review above its recent resistance level, suggesting it might be overextended, but the scenario points pessimistic.

Evidence

Price when the context was analyzed
328.58
Average true range (ATR)
11.2%
Distance to 52-week high
-17.1%
14-day change (14d)
+35.1%
30-day change (32d)
+1.3%
30-day relative strength
-0.8%
SPY change (32d)
+2.1%
Nearest support
326.62
Distance to nearest support
0.6%
Nearest resistance
332.65
Distance to nearest resistance
1.2%
Volume accumulation ratio (14d / 46d)
1.35
  • Mid: 326.62 (0.6% away, 0.05 ATR, 22 touches)
  • Minor: 322.17 (2% away, 0.17 ATR, 8 touches)
  • Mid: 315.42 (4% away, 0.36 ATR, 26 touches)
  • Mid: 332.65 (1.2% away, 0.11 ATR, 11 touches)
  • Mid: 339.16 (3.2% away, 0.29 ATR, 15 touches)
  • Mid: 346.45 (5.4% away, 0.49 ATR, 18 touches)

Trends

Evidence

Average earnings surprise
+7.0%
  • May 6, 2026: actual EPS 1.41 vs estimate 1.39 (surprise +1.1%)
  • February 4, 2026: actual EPS 1.29 vs estimate 1.21 (surprise +6.8%)
  • November 5, 2025: actual EPS 1.16 vs estimate 1.04 (surprise +11.3%)
  • August 13, 2025: actual EPS 1 vs estimate 0.92 (surprise +8.7%)

Expected move

Drivers

  • Past earnings Positive

    The company has beaten earnings expectations every quarter for the past year, with an average surprise of 7%, but the scenario points pessimistic.

Implied move
+9.1%
Source
Options chain

Reactions over its last 20 earnings

Median move
5%
75th percentile move
10.4%
90th percentile move
18.5%
Up / down moves
10 / 10
Average up move
+8.5%
Average down move
-7.6%

Monitoring and close

What Coherent Corp. reported

Status
Finished
Actual EPS1.74
EPS estimate1.61
EPS surprise+8.1%
Revenue$2,046 million
Revenue estimate$1,986 million
Revenue surprise+3.0%

Coherent reported optimistic earnings beating estimates and aggressive guidance, yet shares fell 5%. The company forecasts future sales above expectations.

Sources (8)

Pre-market second reading after the results

Verdict
Beat expectations

Heading into the open, results beat expectations on both earnings and revenue, and the price is indicating -6.7% pre-market, a move in line with the stock's usual reaction (about 5%). The figures confirm the pessimistic scenario. In the 749 similar cases in our market history, the close held that direction 96% of the time.

How the stock reacted

Outcome
Accurate
Consolidated
-8.0%
Max favorable move (MFE)
8.5%
Max adverse move (MAE)
3.6%