CME Group Inc. (CME) earnings on July 22, 2026

Before the market opens Q2 2026

More CME Group Inc. earnings

Prior outlook: Pessimistic Outcome: Missed

CME Group shares rose sharply after earnings, closing up nearly 5% despite some analysts expecting a drop.

CME price around the earnings

249.24

Change: +5.0%

2026-07-22, 20:00 UTC

Start of the measured window End of the measured window
237.38 243.21 249.03 254.86 237.38
Price series around the eventClosing price per minute from before the event to the end of the measured window.
July 22, 2026
  • Price: green if it ends above the starting price; red if it ends below
  • Start of the measured window
  • End of the measured window
  • Market open
  • Starting price
Price series around the event

Prior thesis

Prior outlook: Pessimistic Outcome: Missed

Thesis published
Results released

Regulatory overhang from CFTC block, PT cuts create uncertainty; analyst upside +18.6% and 75% beat rate provide support, but the scenario points pessimistic.

Context analyzed before publication

Trend
Significant negative trajectory into earnings due to regulatory overhang and PT cuts, despite historical strength.

Analysts

Evidence

Analyst consensus
Buy
Consensus average (1-5)
2.44
Analysts covering the stock
15
Average price target
281.47
Lowest price target
226
Highest price target
324
Upside to price target
18.6%
Quarterly earnings growth
20.7%
Revenue growth
14.4%
Forward EPS
12.83
Trailing EPS
11.72
Analyst moves in the last 60 days
10
  • Strong buy: 5
  • Buy: 4
  • Hold: 4
  • Sell: 1
  • Strong sell: 2
Strong buy
5
Buy
4
Hold
4
Sell
1
Strong sell
2
  • July 15, 2026 · Piper Sandler: Maintains rating (Overweight → Overweight)
  • July 10, 2026 · Morgan Stanley: Maintains rating (Overweight → Overweight)
  • July 9, 2026 · Barclays: Maintains rating (Equal-Weight → Equal-Weight)
  • July 8, 2026 · TD Cowen: Maintains rating (Buy → Buy)
  • July 6, 2026 · UBS: Maintains rating (Neutral → Neutral)
  • July 2, 2026 · Raymond James: Reiterates rating (Outperform → Outperform)
  • June 22, 2026 · TD Cowen: Maintains rating (Buy → Buy)
  • June 18, 2026 · Keefe, Bruyette & Woods: Upgrades rating (Market Perform → Outperform)
  • June 11, 2026 · Rothschild & Co: Upgrades rating (Neutral → Buy)
  • June 5, 2026 · Erste Group: Downgrades rating (Buy → Hold)

News and sentiment

Evidence

Sentiment
Sentiment
Constructive
Mention volume
Low
Normalized volume
33%
News
Sources (7)

Technicals

Evidence

Average true range (ATR)
2.6%
Distance to 52-week high
-25.2%
14-day change (14d)
-1.4%
30-day change (33d)
-3.6%
30-day relative strength
-3.8%
SPY change (33d)
+0.2%
Nearest support
236.71
Nearest resistance
237.85
Volume accumulation ratio (14d / 46d)
1.15

Trends

Evidence

Average earnings surprise
+1.0%
  • April 22, 2026: actual EPS 3.36 vs estimate 3.37 (surprise -0.3%)
  • February 4, 2026: actual EPS 2.77 vs estimate 2.74 (surprise +1.0%)
  • October 22, 2025: actual EPS 2.68 vs estimate 2.63 (surprise +2.0%)
  • July 23, 2025: actual EPS 2.96 vs estimate 2.92 (surprise +1.4%)

Expected move

There is no implied-move data available for this event.

Reactions over its last 20 earnings

Median move
1.6%
75th percentile move
3.5%
90th percentile move
4.1%
Up / down moves
11 / 9
Average up move
+2.5%
Average down move
-1.4%

Monitoring and close

What CME Group Inc. reported

Status
Finished
Actual EPS2.99
EPS estimate2.91
EPS surprise+2.7%
Revenue$1,706 million
Revenue estimate$1,685 million
Revenue surprise+1.2%

CME reported record Q2 earnings, beating estimates. Shares rose, reflecting optimism over the results and new product launches.

Sources (18)

Pre-market second reading after the results

Verdict
Beat expectations

Heading into the open, the figures overturn the prior pessimistic scenario. In the 1260 past cases with a similar move, the close held that direction 86% of the time.

How the stock reacted

Outcome
Missed
Consolidated
+5.0%
Max favorable move (MFE)
0%
Max adverse move (MAE)
7.5%