Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG) earnings on July 29, 2026

After the market closes Q2 2026

More Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. earnings

Prior outlook: Pessimistic Outcome: Partial

Chipotle's stock jumped 12.5% after earnings, despite many analysts betting against it beforehand.

CMG price around the earnings

38.52

Change: +12.5%

2026-07-30, 20:00 UTC

Start of the measured window End of the measured window
34.00 35.67 37.34 39.01 34.24
Price series around the eventClosing price per minute from before the event to the end of the measured window.No trading (market closed)
July 29, 2026 July 30, 2026
  • Price: green if it ends above the starting price; red if it ends below
  • Start of the measured window
  • End of the measured window
  • Market open
  • No trading (market closed)
  • Starting price
Price series around the event

Prior thesis

Prior outlook: Pessimistic Outcome: Partial

Thesis published
Results released

Pre-release: FDA Cyclospora outbreak (72 cases) and negative Q-earnings create severe headwinds despite analyst optimism and a strong recent beat history.

Context analyzed before publication

Trend
Sharp deterioration: FDA outbreak, negative Q-earnings, -8% 14d trend strength, trajectory -82.6

Analysts

Evidence

Analyst consensus
Buy
Consensus average (1-5)
1.69
Analysts covering the stock
32
Average price target
42.94
Lowest price target
35
Highest price target
52
Upside to price target
25.6%
Quarterly earnings growth
-21.7%
Revenue growth
7.4%
Forward EPS
1.35
Trailing EPS
1.09
Analyst moves in the last 60 days
4
  • Strong buy: 4
  • Buy: 21
  • Hold: 10
  • Sell: 0
  • Strong sell: 0
Strong buy
4
Buy
21
Hold
10
Sell
0
Strong sell
0
  • July 13, 2026 · Citigroup: Maintains rating (Buy → Buy)
  • July 13, 2026 · Mizuho: Maintains rating (Outperform → Outperform)
  • June 5, 2026 · JP Morgan: Upgrades rating (Neutral → Overweight)
  • June 3, 2026 · Morgan Stanley: Downgrades rating (Overweight → Equal-Weight)

News and sentiment

Evidence

Sentiment
Sentiment
Neutral
Mention volume
Low
Normalized volume
33%
News
Sources (7)

Technicals

Evidence

Price when the context was analyzed
33.52
Average true range (ATR)
3.7%
Distance to 52-week high
-23.0%
14-day change (14d)
-8.0%
30-day change (32d)
+0.6%
30-day relative strength
-1.0%
SPY change (32d)
+1.6%
Nearest support
33.5
Distance to nearest support
0.1%
Nearest resistance
33.76
Distance to nearest resistance
0.7%
Volume accumulation ratio (14d / 46d)
1.04
  • Mid: 33.5 (0.1% away, 0.02 ATR, 30 touches)
  • Minor: 33.24 (0.8% away, 0.23 ATR, 6 touches)
  • Major: 33.05 (1.4% away, 0.38 ATR, 39 touches)
  • Minor: 33.76 (0.7% away, 0.2 ATR, 8 touches)
  • Mid: 33.98 (1.4% away, 0.37 ATR, 30 touches)
  • Minor: 34.29 (2.3% away, 0.63 ATR, 7 touches)

Trends

Evidence

Average earnings surprise
+2.1%
  • April 29, 2026: actual EPS 0.24 vs estimate 0.24 (surprise +1.4%)
  • February 3, 2026: actual EPS 0.25 vs estimate 0.24 (surprise +4.9%)
  • October 29, 2025: actual EPS 0.29 vs estimate 0.29 (surprise +0.9%)
  • July 23, 2025: actual EPS 0.33 vs estimate 0.33 (surprise +1.3%)

Expected move

Implied move
+7.0%
Source
Options chain

Reactions over its last 19 earnings

Median move
6.1%
75th percentile move
9.9%
90th percentile move
13.7%
Up / down moves
10 / 9
Average up move
+6.4%
Average down move
-7.6%

Monitoring and close

What Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. reported

Status
Finished
Actual EPS0.33
EPS estimate0.32
EPS surprise+3.1%
Revenue$3,349 million
Revenue estimate$3,331 million
Revenue surprise+0.5%

Chipotle beats estimates, stock jumps 12%. Yum Brands recovers from outbreak. Jersey Mike's slides below IPO price.

Sources (42)

Pre-market second reading after the results

Verdict
Beat expectations

Heading into the open, results beat expectations on both earnings and revenue and the price is indicating +6.7% pre-market, a move in line with the stock's usual reaction (about 6%). The figures overturn the prior pessimistic scenario. Across our market history, in the 1,421 similar cases the close held that direction 96% of the time.

How the stock reacted

Outcome
Partial
Consolidated
+12.5%
Max favorable move (MFE)
6.2%
Max adverse move (MAE)
14.2%