Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) earnings on August 4, 2026

Before the market opens Q2 2026

More Caterpillar Inc. earnings

Prior outlook: No statistical edge

Caterpillar's stock rose sharply after strong earnings, hitting a high of +12.29% before closing up +5.77%. The market reacted positively to the company's performance.

CAT price around the earnings

876.54

Change: +5.3%

2026-08-04, 20:00 UTC

Start of the measured window End of the measured window
832.64 867.33 902.03 936.72 832.64
Price series around the eventClosing price per minute from before the event to the end of the measured window.
August 4, 2026
  • Price: green if it ends above the starting price; red if it ends below
  • Start of the measured window
  • End of the measured window
  • Market open
  • Starting price
Price series around the event

Prior thesis

Prior outlook: No statistical edge

Thesis published
Results released

Mixed contexts: strong history, weak trend

The stock has strong analyst support and a good earnings history, but the recent price trend is sharply down. This creates a mixed picture: if the company beats earnings again, the scenario could turn optimistic, but the current trend is negative.

Context analyzed before publication

Summary
Mixed contexts: strong history, weak trend
Playbook
The stock has fallen significantly over the past month, and institutional investors have been selling. However, analysts still point to an optimistic scenario, and the company has a history of beating earnings, which could lead to a rebound if the next report is strong.
Trend
Expert scores oscillated around neutral

Analysts

Drivers

  • Analysts Positive

    Analysts have a price target of $959, implying a 15.5% upside, with a generally positive rating (mean 2.14).

Evidence

Analyst consensus
Buy
Consensus average (1-5)
2.14
Analysts covering the stock
26
Average price target
958.83
Lowest price target
575
Highest price target
1,218
Upside to price target
15.5%
Quarterly earnings growth
27.3%
Revenue growth
22.2%
Forward EPS
30.45
Trailing EPS
20.04
Analyst moves in the last 60 days
0
  • Strong buy: 1
  • Buy: 13
  • Hold: 12
  • Sell: 1
  • Strong sell: 1
Strong buy
1
Buy
13
Hold
12
Sell
1
Strong sell
1

News and sentiment

Drivers

  • News & sentiment Neutral

    News is mixed: one positive article about industrial demand, but two neutral or general market articles, providing no clear directional context.

Evidence

Sentiment
Sentiment
Constructive
Mention volume
High
Normalized volume
99%
News
Sources (5)

Technicals

Drivers

  • Technical Negative

    The stock has dropped 13.76% over the past 30 days and is underperforming the S&P 500 by 15.49%, indicating strong selling pressure and after a strong recent drop conditions.

Evidence

Price when the context was analyzed
831.04
Average true range (ATR)
4.7%
Distance to 52-week high
-23.3%
14-day change (14d)
-3.8%
30-day change (32d)
-13.8%
30-day relative strength
-15.5%
SPY change (32d)
+1.7%
Nearest support
829.15
Distance to nearest support
0.2%
Nearest resistance
839.43
Distance to nearest resistance
1%
Volume accumulation ratio (14d / 46d)
1.2
  • Minor: 829.15 (0.2% away, 0.05 ATR, 3 touches)
  • Mid: 822.7 (1% away, 0.21 ATR, 16 touches)
  • Minor: 814.68 (2% away, 0.42 ATR, 2 touches)
  • Minor: 839.43 (1% away, 0.21 ATR, 5 touches)
  • Mid: 845.05 (1.7% away, 0.36 ATR, 13 touches)
  • Mid: 853.71 (2.7% away, 0.58 ATR, 8 touches)

Trends

Evidence

Average earnings surprise
+8.6%
  • April 30, 2026: actual EPS 5.54 vs estimate 4.64 (surprise +19.3%)
  • January 29, 2026: actual EPS 5.16 vs estimate 4.71 (surprise +9.5%)
  • October 29, 2025: actual EPS 4.95 vs estimate 4.52 (surprise +9.4%)
  • August 5, 2025: actual EPS 4.72 vs estimate 4.9 (surprise -3.7%)

Expected move

Drivers

  • Past earnings Positive

    The company has beaten earnings expectations in 75% of recent quarters, with an average surprise of 8.6%, suggesting a potential for optimistic surprises.

Implied move
+5.2%
Source
Options chain

Reactions over its last 20 earnings

Median move
3.8%
75th percentile move
6.7%
90th percentile move
9%
Up / down moves
10 / 10
Average up move
+5.1%
Average down move
-3.9%

Monitoring and close

What Caterpillar Inc. reported

Status
Finished
Actual EPS8.17
EPS estimate5.71
EPS surprise+43.1%
Revenue$20,500 million
Revenue estimate$18,358 million
Revenue surprise+11.7%

Caterpillar beats expectations and raises 2026 outlook on AI demand. Markets hit record highs on deal hopes and tech earnings.

Sources (50)

Pre-market second reading after the results

Verdict
Beat expectations

Heading into the open, results beat expectations on both earnings and revenue, and the price is indicating +11.3% pre-market, a move 3x the stock's usual reaction (about 4%). The figures don't confirm the prior scenario: there was no prior directional scenario to check against.

How the stock reacted

Consolidated
+5.8%
Max move
+12.3%

No verdict: the outlook took no direction, so there is nothing to score as a hit or a miss.