Carnival Corporation & plc (CCL) earnings on September 29, 2026

Before the market opens Q2 2026

More Carnival Corporation & plc earnings

Prior outlook: Pessimistic Outcome: Missed

Carnival's stock jumped 14% at its highest point today and closed 13.55% higher after the CEO said vacation demand remains strong despite economic concerns. Analysts who expected the price to drop were proven wrong.

CCL price around the earnings

25.11

Change: +13.4%

2026-09-29, 20:00 UTC

Start of the measured window End of the measured window
21.92 23.04 24.16 25.28 22.14
Price series around the eventClosing price per minute from before the event to the end of the measured window.
September 29, 2026
  • Price: green if it ends above the starting price; red if it ends below
  • Start of the measured window
  • End of the measured window
  • Market open
  • Starting price
Price series around the event

Prior thesis

Prior outlook: Pessimistic Outcome: Missed

Thesis published
Results released

Weak technicals outweigh analyst optimism

Analysts cite a price target about 53% above current levels, but the scenario points pessimistic given the stock's recent weakness and underperformance. The negative technical setup carried more weight than the optimistic analyst targets.

Context analyzed before publication

Summary
Weak technicals outweigh analyst optimism
Playbook
The stock has dropped significantly over 30 days and is underperforming the broader market. Retail investors have crowded into the stock at these lows, creating divergence risk.
Trend
Expert sentiment turned sharply negative

Analysts

Drivers

  • Analysts Positive

    Analysts maintain a positive outlook with an average buy rating and cite a price target suggesting over 50% above current levels.

Evidence

Analyst consensus
Buy
Consensus average (1-5)
1.59
Analysts covering the stock
26
Average price target
33.99
Lowest price target
28
Highest price target
43
Upside to price target
53.5%
Quarterly earnings growth
-5%
Revenue growth
5.3%
Forward EPS
2.59
Trailing EPS
2.21
Analyst moves in the last 60 days
8
  • Strong buy: 5
  • Buy: 18
  • Hold: 6
  • Sell: 0
  • Strong sell: 0
Strong buy
5
Buy
18
Hold
6
Sell
0
Strong sell
0
  • September 24, 2026 · JP Morgan: Maintains rating (Overweight → Overweight)
  • September 24, 2026 · Susquehanna: Maintains rating (Positive → Positive)
  • September 22, 2026 · TD Cowen: Maintains rating (Buy → Buy)
  • September 17, 2026 · Goldman Sachs: Maintains rating (Buy → Buy)
  • September 16, 2026 · Stifel: Maintains rating (Buy → Buy)
  • September 16, 2026 · Barclays: Maintains rating (Overweight → Overweight)
  • September 15, 2026 · Deutsche Bank: Maintains rating (Hold → Hold)
  • September 14, 2026 · Wells Fargo: Maintains rating (Overweight → Overweight)

News and sentiment

Drivers

  • News & sentiment Negative

    Market-wide headlines point to weakening investor confidence, placing sentiment in a cautious zone.

Evidence

Sentiment
Sentiment
Constructive
Mention volume
High
Normalized volume
99%
Messages
30
News
Sources (6)

Technicals

Drivers

  • Technical Negative

    The stock has dropped 10.5% in the past month and is lagging behind the broader market by about 10 percentage points.

Evidence

Price when the context was analyzed
22.15
Average true range (ATR)
3.3%
Distance to 52-week high
-33.8%
14-day change (14d)
-1.8%
30-day change (31d)
-10.5%
30-day relative strength
-10.0%
SPY change (31d)
-0.5%
Nearest support
22.01
Distance to nearest support
0.7%
Nearest resistance
22.16
Distance to nearest resistance
0.1%
Volume accumulation ratio (14d / 46d)
1.41
  • Mid: 22.01 (0.7% away, 0.2 ATR, 19 touches)
  • Mid: 21.74 (1.9% away, 0.56 ATR, 16 touches)
  • Mid: 21.54 (2.8% away, 0.83 ATR, 15 touches)
  • Mid: 22.16 (0.1% away, 0.02 ATR, 24 touches)
  • Mid: 22.34 (0.8% away, 0.25 ATR, 20 touches)
  • Mid: 22.5 (1.6% away, 0.47 ATR, 12 touches)

Trends

Evidence

Average earnings surprise
+19.3%
  • June 23, 2026: actual EPS 0.41 vs estimate 0.34 (surprise +21.1%)
  • March 27, 2026: actual EPS 0.2 vs estimate 0.18 (surprise +8.9%)
  • December 19, 2025: actual EPS 0.34 vs estimate 0.25 (surprise +38.6%)
  • September 29, 2025: actual EPS 1.43 vs estimate 1.32 (surprise +8.5%)

Expected move

Drivers

  • Past earnings Positive

    The company has exceeded earnings expectations in each of the past four quarters, but the scenario points pessimistic.

Implied move
+5.1%
Source
Options chain

Reactions over its last 20 earnings

Median move
4.8%
75th percentile move
7%
90th percentile move
10.1%
Up / down moves
10 / 10
Average up move
+6.4%
Average down move
-5.6%

Monitoring and close

What Carnival Corporation & plc reported

Status
Finished
Actual EPS1.43
EPS estimate1.36
EPS surprise+5.1%
Revenue$8,435 million
Revenue estimate$8,300 million
Revenue surprise+1.6%

Carnival's Q3 results previously drove gains for rival Royal Caribbean. A new article tracks general S&P500 stock movements today.

Sources (31)

Pre-market second reading after the results

There is no second reading available for this event.

How the stock reacted

Outcome
Missed
Consolidated
+13.6%
Max favorable move (MFE)
1%
Max adverse move (MAE)
14.2%