Capital One Financial Corporation (COF) earnings on July 21, 2026

After the market closes Q2 2026

More Capital One Financial Corporation earnings

Prior outlook: Optimistic Outcome: Partial

Capital One jumped 3.5% early but ended down 2.4%, erasing gains despite analysts feeling positive before the report.

COF price around the earnings

201.36

Change: -2.4%

2026-07-22, 20:00 UTC

Start of the measured window End of the measured window
198.98 203.34 207.70 212.06 206.22
Price series around the eventClosing price per minute from before the event to the end of the measured window.No trading (market closed)
July 21, 2026 July 22, 2026
  • Price: green if it ends above the starting price; red if it ends below
  • Start of the measured window
  • End of the measured window
  • Market open
  • No trading (market closed)
  • Starting price
Price series around the event

Prior thesis

Prior outlook: Optimistic Outcome: Partial

Thesis published
Results released

Optimistic analysts but mixed earnings and crowded retail

Analysts are optimistic with a 25% target above the current price and strong recent trend strength, but the company's earnings record is mixed and retail investors are heavily concentrated, adding risk.

Context analyzed before publication

Summary
Optimistic analysts but mixed earnings and crowded retail
Playbook
The stock has risen nearly 13% in the past month and analysts cite further upside, but only half of recent quarters beat earnings estimates, and retail sentiment is extremely one-sided.
Trend
Expert opinion volatile but currently positive

Analysts

Drivers

  • Analysts Positive

    The average price target is 25.1% above the current price, with a strong buy rating (1.54 on a scale where 1 is buy).

Evidence

Analyst consensus
Buy
Consensus average (1-5)
1.54
Analysts covering the stock
22
Average price target
257.59
Lowest price target
214
Highest price target
310
Upside to price target
25.1%
Quarterly earnings growth
54.8%
Revenue growth
46.3%
Forward EPS
24.21
Trailing EPS
3.25
Analyst moves in the last 60 days
7
  • Strong buy: 5
  • Buy: 15
  • Hold: 4
  • Sell: 0
  • Strong sell: 0
Strong buy
5
Buy
15
Hold
4
Sell
0
Strong sell
0
  • July 13, 2026 · JP Morgan: Maintains rating (Overweight → Overweight)
  • July 13, 2026 · HSBC: Upgrades rating (Hold → Buy)
  • July 9, 2026 · B of A Securities: Maintains rating (Buy → Buy)
  • July 7, 2026 · TD Cowen: Maintains rating (Buy → Buy)
  • July 7, 2026 · UBS: Maintains rating (Buy → Buy)
  • June 30, 2026 · Piper Sandler: Initiates coverage (Neutral → Overweight)
  • June 30, 2026 · BTIG: Maintains rating (Buy → Buy)

News and sentiment

Drivers

  • News & sentiment Positive

    A favorable legal outcome ('Capital One Defeats Proposed Class Action') supports sentiment.

Evidence

Sentiment
Sentiment
Constructive
Mention volume
Low
Normalized volume
33%
News
Sources (7)

Technicals

Drivers

  • Technical Positive

    The stock has risen 12.78% in the past 30 days, showing a strong recent trend.

Evidence

Average true range (ATR)
2.5%
Distance to 52-week high
-19.5%
14-day change (14d)
+2.3%
30-day change (30d)
+12.8%
30-day relative strength
+12.8%
Benchmark change (0d)
+0.0%
Nearest support
206.6
Nearest resistance
208.73
Volume accumulation ratio (14d / 46d)
0.75

Trends

Evidence

Average earnings surprise
+18.4%
  • April 21, 2026: actual EPS 4.42 vs estimate 4.57 (surprise -3.3%)
  • January 22, 2026: actual EPS 3.86 vs estimate 4.14 (surprise -6.8%)
  • October 21, 2025: actual EPS 5.95 vs estimate 4.36 (surprise +36.4%)
  • July 22, 2025: actual EPS 5.48 vs estimate 3.72 (surprise +47.4%)

Expected move

Drivers

  • Past earnings Neutral

    Only 50% of recent quarters beat earnings estimates, indicating inconsistent performance.

There is no implied-move data available for this event.

Reactions over its last 20 earnings

Median move
4.3%
75th percentile move
5.5%
90th percentile move
7.7%
Up / down moves
13 / 7
Average up move
+3.5%
Average down move
-4.8%

Monitoring and close

What Capital One Financial Corporation reported

Status
Finished
Actual EPS5.81
EPS estimate4.77
EPS surprise+21.8%
Revenue$15,850 million
Revenue estimate$15,765 million
Revenue surprise+0.5%

Capital One beat Q2 estimates with EPS of $5.81, driven by improved credit quality and lower loan-loss provisions, signaling consumer health.

Sources (16)

Pre-market second reading after the results

Verdict
Beat expectations

Heading into the open, the figures don't clearly confirm the prior scenario.

How the stock reacted

Outcome
Partial
Consolidated
-2.4%
Max favorable move (MFE)
3.5%
Max adverse move (MAE)
3.6%