Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) earnings on July 30, 2026

AJG price around the earnings

249.42

Change: -2.7%

Start of the measured window End of the measured window

239.81 245.74 251.68 257.61 256.46

July 30, 2026 July 31, 2026

Price: green if it ends above the starting price; red if it ends below
Start of the measured window
End of the measured window
Market open
No trading (market closed)
Starting price

Price series around the event

Prior thesis

Prior outlook: Optimistic Outcome: Missed

Thesis published: 2026-07-30, 19:57 UTC
Results released: 2026-07-30, 20:17 UTC

Analyst upgrades and acquisition drive 30d rally; weak historical earnings (50% beat, -1.8% avg) create sell-the-news risk.

Context analyzed before publication

Trend: Volatile 30d trajectory (18.9→62.3→61.4); the recent trend has been strong but after a strong recent rise pre-event positioning.

Analysts

Evidence

Analyst consensus: Buy
Consensus average (1-5): 1.73
Analysts covering the stock: 18
Average price target: 281.39
Lowest price target: 225
Highest price target: 388
Upside to price target: 10.1%
Quarterly earnings growth: 16.8%
Revenue growth: 34.6%
Forward EPS: 14.87
Trailing EPS: 6.18
Analyst moves in the last 60 days: 10

Strong buy: 4
Buy: 12
Hold: 6
Sell: 0
Strong sell: 0

Strong buy: 4
Buy: 12
Hold: 6
Sell: 0
Strong sell: 0

July 15, 2026 · Piper Sandler: Upgrades rating (Neutral → Overweight)
July 13, 2026 · RBC Capital: Maintains rating (Outperform → Outperform)
July 9, 2026 · Wells Fargo: Maintains rating (Overweight → Overweight)
July 9, 2026 · Cantor Fitzgerald: Maintains rating (Neutral → Neutral)
July 9, 2026 · Mizuho: Maintains rating (Outperform → Outperform)
July 8, 2026 · UBS: Maintains rating (Buy → Buy)
July 8, 2026 · Keefe, Bruyette & Woods: Maintains rating (Market Perform → Market Perform)
July 7, 2026 · Barclays: Maintains rating (Overweight → Overweight)
July 6, 2026 · Morgan Stanley: Maintains rating (Overweight → Overweight)
June 18, 2026 · Keefe, Bruyette & Woods: Maintains rating (Market Perform → Market Perform)

News and sentiment

Evidence

Sentiment

Sentiment: Constructive
Mention volume: Low
Normalized volume: 33%

News

Sources (10)

Arthur J. Gallagher Acquires Pennsylvania-Based Greensburg; Financial Terms Undisclosed (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga
This Arthur J. Gallagher Analyst Turns Bullish; Here Are Top 5 Upgrades For Wednesday (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga
Piper Sandler Upgrades Arthur J. Gallagher to Overweight, Raises Price Target to $276 (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga
Top 3 Financial Stocks You May Want To Dump This Quarter (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga
RBC Capital Maintains Outperform on Arthur J. Gallagher, Raises Price Target to $300 (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga
Wells Fargo Maintains Overweight on Arthur J. Gallagher, Raises Price Target to $299 (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga
Cantor Fitzgerald Maintains Neutral on Arthur J. Gallagher, Raises Price Target to $300 (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga
Mizuho Maintains Outperform on Arthur J. Gallagher, Raises Price Target to $287 (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga
UBS Maintains Buy on Arthur J. Gallagher, Raises Price Target to $291 (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods Maintains Market Perform on Arthur J. Gallagher, Raises Price Target to $261 (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga

Technicals

Evidence

Price when the context was analyzed: 268.67
Average true range (ATR): 2.8%
Distance to 52-week high: -16.9%
14-day change (14d): +8.5%
30-day change (30d): +18.3%
30-day relative strength: +19.8%
SPY change (30d): -1.5%
Nearest support: 268.67
Distance to nearest support: 0%
Nearest resistance: 268.67
Distance to nearest resistance: 0%
Volume accumulation ratio (14d / 46d): 0.6

Minor: 268.67 (0% away, 0 ATR, 1 touches)
Minor: 267.06 (0.6% away, 0.22 ATR, 2 touches)
Mid: 265.64 (1.1% away, 0.41 ATR, 9 touches)

Mid: 274.29 (2.1% away, 0.75 ATR, 4 touches)
Minor: 275.98 (2.7% away, 0.98 ATR, 6 touches)
Mid: 278.28 (3.6% away, 1.29 ATR, 17 touches)

Trends

Evidence

Average earnings surprise: -1.8%

April 30, 2026: actual EPS 4.47 vs estimate 4.43 (surprise +1.0%)
January 29, 2026: actual EPS 2.38 vs estimate 2.35 (surprise +1.4%)
October 30, 2025: actual EPS 2.32 vs estimate 2.54 (surprise -8.5%)
July 31, 2025: actual EPS 2.33 vs estimate 2.36 (surprise -1.2%)

Expected move

Implied move: +2.0%
Source: Options chain

Reactions over its last 20 earnings

Median move: 1.5%
75th percentile move: 3.4%
90th percentile move: 4.8%
Up / down moves: 9 / 11
Average up move: +2.7%
Average down move: -1.8%

Monitoring and close

What Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. reported

Status: Finished

Actual EPS	2.84
EPS estimate	2.82
EPS surprise	+0.7%
Revenue	$4,003 million
Revenue estimate	$4,009 million
Revenue surprise	-0.1%

Arthur J. Gallagher posted adjusted earnings of $2.84 per share, slightly beating estimates, but revenue of $4.003 billion missed forecasts. Mixed outlook.

Sources (5)

Arthur J. Gallagher (AJG) Q2 Earnings Meet Estimates (opens in a new tab) — Zacks
Arthur J. Gallagher (NYSE:AJG) Posts Q2 CY2026 Sales In Line With Estimates (opens in a new tab) — StockStory
Arthur J. Gallagher posted adjusted earnings of $2.84 per share, beating the $2.82 estimate, but revenue of $4.003B missed the $4.009B forecast. — Benzinga
Arthur J. Gallagher Q2 Adj. EPS $2.84 Beats $2.82 Estimate, Sales $4.003B Miss $4.009B Estimate (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. Announces Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results (opens in a new tab) — Yahoo

Pre-market second reading after the results

Verdict: Mixed results

Heading into the open, results beat expectations on earnings but not on revenue, and the price is indicating -4.5% pre-market, a move 3x the stock's usual reaction (about 2%). The figures overturn the prior optimistic scenario. In the 718 similar cases in our market history, the close held that direction 86% of the time.

How the stock reacted

Outcome: Missed
Consolidated: -2.8%
Max favorable move (MFE): 0.3%
Max adverse move (MAE): 5.5%