Arm Holdings plc (ARM) earnings on July 29, 2026

ARM price around the earnings

241.54

Change: +7.4%

Start of the measured window End of the measured window

204.70 223.46 242.22 260.98 224.89

July 29, 2026 July 30, 2026

Price: green if it ends above the starting price; red if it ends below
Start of the measured window
End of the measured window
Market open
No trading (market closed)
Starting price

Price series around the event

Prior thesis

Prior outlook: Pessimistic Outcome: Partial

Thesis published: 2026-07-29, 19:59 UTC
Results released: 2026-07-29, 20:12 UTC

Severe trend strength collapse -27% 30d; analyst PT adjustments pessimistic; 75% beat rate; IV extreme 2.0027; implied move 10.48%.

Context analyzed before publication

Trend: Consistent and severe selloff into earnings, indicating increasing after a strong recent drop conditions and negative sentiment.

Analysts

Evidence

Analyst consensus: Buy
Consensus average (1-5): 1.95
Analysts covering the stock: 37
Average price target: 302.65
Lowest price target: 125
Highest price target: 500
Upside to price target: 35.2%
Quarterly earnings growth: 49%
Revenue growth: 20.1%
Forward EPS: 3.08
Trailing EPS: 0.86
Analyst moves in the last 60 days: 10

Strong buy: 7
Buy: 19
Hold: 12
Sell: 1
Strong sell: 1

Strong buy: 7
Buy: 19
Hold: 12
Sell: 1
Strong sell: 1

July 22, 2026 · Wells Fargo: Maintains rating (Overweight → Overweight)
July 21, 2026 · Susquehanna: Maintains rating (Positive → Positive)
July 20, 2026 · UBS: Maintains rating (Buy → Buy)
July 14, 2026 · HSBC: Downgrades rating (Buy → Hold)
July 14, 2026 · Keybanc: Maintains rating (Overweight → Overweight)
June 24, 2026 · TD Cowen: Maintains rating (Buy → Buy)
June 24, 2026 · UBS: Maintains rating (Buy → Buy)
June 23, 2026 · B of A Securities: Maintains rating (Neutral → Neutral)
June 18, 2026 · New Street Research: Downgrades rating (Buy → Neutral)
June 11, 2026 · B of A Securities: Maintains rating (Neutral → Neutral)

News and sentiment

Evidence

Sentiment

Sentiment: Constructive
Mention volume: Low
Normalized volume: 33%

News

Sources (8)

What Is Going on With Arm Holdings Stock on Tuesday? (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga
Wells Fargo Maintains Overweight on ARM Holdings, Lowers Price Target to $350 (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga
What's Going on With Arm Stock Wednesday? (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga
What Is Going On With Arm Stock On Tuesday? (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga
Susquehanna Maintains Positive on ARM Holdings, Raises Price Target to $320 (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga
UBS Maintains Buy on ARM Holdings, Lowers Price Target to $360 (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga
ARM Stock News: Wall Street Sounds Alarm on Stretched Valuation Ahead of July Earnings (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga
Arm Stock Tumbles After HSBC Sounds Valuation Alarm (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga

Technicals

Evidence

Price when the context was analyzed: 244.9
Average true range (ATR): 9.1%
Distance to 52-week high: -49.0%
14-day change (14d): -12.8%
30-day change (32d): -26.8%
30-day relative strength: -22.5%
QQQ change (32d): -4.3%
Nearest support: 243.17
Distance to nearest support: 0.7%
Nearest resistance: 246.36
Distance to nearest resistance: 0.6%
Volume accumulation ratio (14d / 46d): 0.54

Mid: 243.17 (0.7% away, 0.08 ATR, 4 touches)
Mid: 240.45 (1.8% away, 0.2 ATR, 5 touches)
Minor: 237.59 (3% away, 0.33 ATR, 2 touches)

Minor: 246.36 (0.6% away, 0.07 ATR, 2 touches)
Minor: 249.25 (1.8% away, 0.2 ATR, 1 touches)
Mid: 251.73 (2.8% away, 0.31 ATR, 7 touches)

Trends

Evidence

Average earnings surprise: +6.5%

May 5, 2026: actual EPS 0.6 vs estimate 0.58 (surprise +3.6%)
February 4, 2026: actual EPS 0.43 vs estimate 0.41 (surprise +5.1%)
November 5, 2025: actual EPS 0.39 vs estimate 0.33 (surprise +17.7%)
July 30, 2025: actual EPS 0.35 vs estimate 0.35 (surprise -0.3%)

Expected move

Implied move: +10.5%
Source: Options chain

Reactions over its last 11 earnings

Median move: 5.8%
75th percentile move: 13.6%
90th percentile move: 15.7%
Up / down moves: 4 / 7
Average up move: +17.2%
Average down move: -6.3%

Monitoring and close

What Arm Holdings plc reported

Status: Finished

Actual EPS	0.45
EPS estimate	0.4
EPS surprise	+12.5%
Revenue	$1,289 million
Revenue estimate	$1,262 million
Revenue surprise	+2.1%

Arm remains key AI beneficiary despite softer handset outlook, Citi says. Optimistic on data center revenue growth.

Sources (29)

Arm remains key AI infrastructure beneficiary despite softer handset outlook, Citi says (opens in a new tab) — Proactive
Arm Holdings: Data Center Royalty Grows 2X Again, AGI CPU Revenues To Cross $1 Billion (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga
Arm's AI Momentum is Undeniable, but is ARM Stock a Hold? (opens in a new tab) — Zacks
Arm Holdings Stock Surges After Strong Q1 Earnings (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga
Morgan Stanley Maintains Equal-Weight on ARM Holdings, Raises Price Target to $212 (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga
RBC Capital Maintains Outperform on ARM Holdings, Lowers Price Target to $340 (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga
TD Cowen Maintains Buy on ARM Holdings, Lowers Price Target to $350 (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga
Wells Fargo Maintains Overweight on ARM Holdings, Lowers Price Target to $280 (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga
Arm shares jump after Q1 revenue, profit beat estimates (opens in a new tab) — Proactive
ARM Q1 Earnings Call Highlights AI CPU Demand and Data Center Growth (opens in a new tab) — Zacks
Guggenheim Reiterates Buy on ARM Holdings, Maintains $255 Price Target (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga
Arm Holdings Q1 FY2027 earnings beat estimates on AI demand (opens in a new tab) — Quartz
Needham Reiterates Buy on ARM Holdings, Maintains $255 Price Target (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga
Arm Holdings Tops First-Quarter Forecasts, but Shares Extend Decline (opens in a new tab) — InvestorsHub
ARM Holdings PLC (ARM) (Q1 2027) Earnings Call Highlights: Record Revenue and AI Growth Amid ... (opens in a new tab) — GuruFocus.com
ARM Holdings (NASDAQ:ARM) Fiscal Q1 Results Beat Estimates but Guidance Disappoints, Shares Drop 6% (opens in a new tab) — ChartMill
ARM Q1 Earnings Call Highlights (opens in a new tab) — MarketBeat
Arm Holdings plc (ARM) Q1 2027 Earnings Call Transcript (opens in a new tab) — SeekingAlpha
Qualcomm and Arm Forecasts Fail to Impress Investors (opens in a new tab) — Bloomberg
Arm Delivers a Record Q1 — Earnings, Revenues Beat Estimates (CORRECTED) (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga
Robinhood, Arm, Carvana: Stocks moving on earnings in after-hours (opens in a new tab) — Yahoo Finance Video
CORRECTION: ARM Holdings Sees Q2 Adj EPS $0.43-$0.51 vs $0.43 Est; Sees Sales $1.330B-$1.430B vs $1.339B Est (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga
Arm Holdings beats Q1 estimates, but shares tumble (opens in a new tab) — Investing.com
Arm Holdings beats Q1 estimates, shares fall in after-hours (opens in a new tab) — Investing.com
ARM Holdings beat expectations with adjusted earnings of $0.45 per share and revenue of $1.289B. — Benzinga
ARM Holdings Q1 Adj. EPS $0.45 Beats $0.40 Estimate, Sales $1.289B Beat $1.262B Estimate (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga
ARM Holdings Sees Q2 Adj EPS $0.43-$0.51 vs $0.43 Est; Sees Sales $880.000M-$1.880B vs $1.339B Est (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga
Arm shares dive after hours despite forecasts above estimates (opens in a new tab) — Reuters
Arm Holdings plc Reports Results for the First Quarter of the Fiscal Year Ending 2027 (opens in a new tab) — Yahoo

Pre-market second reading after the results

Verdict: Beat expectations

Heading into the open, results beat expectations on both earnings and revenue and the price is indicating +8.9% pre-market, a move above the stock's usual reaction (about 6%). The figures overturn the prior pessimistic scenario. Across our market history, in the 1,421 similar cases the close held that direction 96% of the time.

How the stock reacted

Outcome: Partial
Consolidated: +7.4%
Max favorable move (MFE): 10.4%
Max adverse move (MAE): 19.4%