Ares Management Corporation (ARES) earnings on July 31, 2026

ARES price around the earnings

128.09

Change: +3.4%

End of the measured window

121.54 123.92 126.31 128.69 123.93

July 31, 2026

Price: green if it ends above the starting price; red if it ends below
End of the measured window
Market open
Starting price

Price series around the event

Prior thesis

Prior outlook: No statistical edge

Thesis published: 2026-07-31, 09:56 UTC
Results released: 2026-07-31, 10:07 UTC

Strong M&A interest offset by weak past earnings and new AI-driven credit risk, leading to a significant selloff.

Context analyzed before publication

Trend: Significant selloff from prior highs, suggesting tempered expectations and a scenario that comes from a strong recent drop into earnings.

Analysts

Evidence

Analyst consensus: Buy
Consensus average (1-5): 2
Analysts covering the stock: 18
Average price target: 141.39
Lowest price target: 122
Highest price target: 162
Upside to price target: 13.9%
Quarterly earnings growth: 202.3%
Revenue growth: 28.3%
Forward EPS: 7.22
Trailing EPS: 2.16
Analyst moves in the last 60 days: 5

Strong buy: 4
Buy: 7
Hold: 7
Sell: 0
Strong sell: 0

Strong buy: 4
Buy: 7
Hold: 7
Sell: 0
Strong sell: 0

July 17, 2026 · Oppenheimer: Maintains rating (Outperform → Outperform)
July 13, 2026 · BMO Capital: Maintains rating (Market Perform → Market Perform)
July 9, 2026 · Citizens: Maintains rating (Market Outperform → Market Outperform)
July 9, 2026 · Barclays: Maintains rating (Overweight → Overweight)
June 23, 2026 · TD Cowen: Maintains rating (Buy → Buy)

News and sentiment

Evidence

Sentiment

Sentiment: Constructive
Mention volume: Low
Normalized volume: 33%

News

Sources (7)

Ares Flags More Distressed Borrowers as AI Disrupts Private Credit Portfolio (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga
Ares Eyes $3.4 Billion Credit Secondaries Deal in One of the Largest Private Credit Sales Ever (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga
'Ares Management has held talks to buy Leonard Green & Partners' - Financial Times (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga
Oppenheimer Maintains Outperform on Ares Management, Lowers Price Target to $140 (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga
BMO Capital Maintains Market Perform on Ares Management, Raises Price Target to $128 (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga
Citizens Maintains Market Outperform on Ares Management, Lowers Price Target to $160 (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga
Barclays Maintains Overweight on Ares Management, Lowers Price Target to $139 (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga

Technicals

Evidence

Price when the context was analyzed: 124.24
Average true range (ATR): 3.3%
Distance to 52-week high: -33.2%
14-day change (14d): -0.9%
30-day change (30d): +11.6%
30-day relative strength: +12.3%
SPY change (30d): -0.7%
Nearest support: 124.06
Distance to nearest support: 0.2%
Nearest resistance: 125.82
Distance to nearest resistance: 1.3%
Volume accumulation ratio (14d / 46d): 0.75

Major: 124.06 (0.2% away, 0.05 ATR, 28 touches)
Mid: 123.16 (0.9% away, 0.26 ATR, 28 touches)
Major: 121.79 (2% away, 0.6 ATR, 32 touches)

Mid: 125.82 (1.3% away, 0.39 ATR, 28 touches)
Mid: 127.58 (2.7% away, 0.82 ATR, 22 touches)
Mid: 128.77 (3.7% away, 1.11 ATR, 6 touches)

Trends

Evidence

Average earnings surprise: -5.6%

May 1, 2026: actual EPS 1.24 vs estimate 1.33 (surprise -6.6%)
February 5, 2026: actual EPS 1.45 vs estimate 1.69 (surprise -14.0%)
November 3, 2025: actual EPS 1.19 vs estimate 1.14 (surprise +4.0%)
August 1, 2025: actual EPS 1.03 vs estimate 1.09 (surprise -5.8%)

Expected move

Implied move: +0.0%
Source: Options chain

Reactions over its last 20 earnings

Median move: 3%
75th percentile move: 4.7%
90th percentile move: 6.8%
Up / down moves: 11 / 9
Average up move: +3.5%
Average down move: -3.7%

Monitoring and close

What Ares Management Corporation reported

Status: Finished

Actual EPS	1.29
EPS estimate	1.27
EPS surprise	+1.4%
Revenue	$1,018 million
Revenue estimate	$1,143 million
Revenue surprise	-10.9%

Ares Management reported record fundraising of $36.4 billion in Q2, with earnings in line. AI, private credit, and secondaries emerge as key growth drivers. Optimistic.

Sources (13)

Ares Says AI, Private Credit And Secondaries Are Emerging As Key Growth Drivers (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga
Ares Management Q2 Earnings Call Highlights (opens in a new tab) — MarketBeat
Ares Management Q2 Earnings Meet Estimates, AUM Rises Y/Y (opens in a new tab) — Zacks
Compared to Estimates, Ares Management (ARES) Q2 Earnings: A Look at Key Metrics (opens in a new tab) — Zacks
Private credit roundup: Earnings hold up as defaults, redemptions remain elevated (opens in a new tab) — Reuters
Ares Management (ARES) Q2 Earnings Meet Estimates (opens in a new tab) — Zacks
Ares (NYSE:ARES) Posts Better-Than-Expected Sales In Q2 CY2026 (opens in a new tab) — StockStory
Ares 2Q Fundraising Jumps 39% (opens in a new tab) — The Wall Street Journal
Ares Management Announces Second Quarter 2026 U.S. Direct Lending Origination Activity (opens in a new tab) — Yahoo
Ares Management reported adjusted EPS of $1.29, in line with expectations, but revenue of $1.018B, below the $1.200B estimate. — Benzinga
Ares Management Q2 Adj. EPS $1.29, Inline, Sales $1.018B Miss $1.200B Estimate (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga
Ares Management Q2 Adj. EPS $1.29, Inline (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga
ARES MANAGEMENT CORPORATION REPORTS SECOND QUARTER 2026 RESULTS (opens in a new tab) — Yahoo

Pre-market second reading after the results

Verdict: In line with expectations

Heading into the open, results beat expectations on earnings but not on revenue, and the price is indicating +0.1% pre-market, a move below the stock's usual reaction (about 3%). The figures don't confirm the prior scenario: that move is too small to draw conclusions from.

How the stock reacted

Consolidated: +3.6%
Max move: +3.9%

No verdict: the outlook took no direction, so there is nothing to score as a hit or a miss.