Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) earnings on August 4, 2026

Before the market opens Q2 2026

More Archer-Daniels-Midland Company earnings

Prior outlook: Pessimistic Outcome: Missed

Archer-Daniels Midland beat profit and sales expectations and raised its outlook, pushing the stock up nearly 2% by the close.

ADM price around the earnings

79.87

Change: +2.3%

2026-08-04, 20:00 UTC

Start of the measured window End of the measured window
77.73 79.15 80.57 81.99 78.06
Price series around the eventClosing price per minute from before the event to the end of the measured window.
August 4, 2026
  • Price: green if it ends above the starting price; red if it ends below
  • Start of the measured window
  • End of the measured window
  • Market open
  • Starting price
Price series around the event

Prior thesis

Prior outlook: Pessimistic Outcome: Missed

Thesis published
Results released

Cautious outlook, risk outweighs reward

Experts are cautious because the stock has been falling recently and analysts see limited upside, with some even predicting a decline. Although the company has a strong record of beating earnings, the negative price trend and weak analyst sentiment weigh more.

Context analyzed before publication

Summary
Cautious outlook, risk outweighs reward
Playbook
The stock has been in a downtrend, with a 14-day price change of -8.91%, and is approaching a support level. Analysts have a hold rating with a price target below the current price, indicating a pessimistic scenario.
Trend
Expert sentiment has turned more negative recently

Analysts

Drivers

  • Analysts Negative

    Analysts have a hold rating with a price target of $76, implying a 3.3% downside. Morgan Stanley maintains an underweight rating.

Evidence

Analyst consensus
Hold
Consensus average (1-5)
3.18
Analysts covering the stock
10
Average price target
75.5
Lowest price target
60
Highest price target
95
Upside to price target
-3.3%
Quarterly earnings growth
1%
Revenue growth
1.6%
Forward EPS
5.47
Trailing EPS
2.24
Analyst moves in the last 60 days
2
  • Strong buy: 0
  • Buy: 1
  • Hold: 7
  • Sell: 1
  • Strong sell: 2
Strong buy
0
Buy
1
Hold
7
Sell
1
Strong sell
2
  • July 20, 2026 · Morgan Stanley: Maintains rating (Underweight → Underweight)
  • June 15, 2026 · UBS: Maintains rating (Buy → Buy)

News and sentiment

Drivers

  • News & sentiment Neutral

    Recent news about an investment in a grain elevator and a new COO appointment are minor operational updates.

Evidence

Sentiment
Sentiment
Constructive
Mention volume
High
Normalized volume
99%
News
Sources (4)

Technicals

Drivers

  • Technical Negative

    The stock's trend strength is negative, with a 14-day change of -8.91%, and it is approaching support at $77.20.

Evidence

Price when the context was analyzed
78.05
Average true range (ATR)
2.7%
Distance to 52-week high
-9.2%
14-day change (14d)
-8.9%
30-day change (32d)
+1.6%
30-day relative strength
-0.1%
SPY change (32d)
+1.7%
Nearest support
77.2
Distance to nearest support
1.1%
Nearest resistance
78.23
Distance to nearest resistance
0.2%
Volume accumulation ratio (14d / 46d)
1
  • Mid: 77.2 (1.1% away, 0.4 ATR, 24 touches)
  • Mid: 76.56 (1.9% away, 0.71 ATR, 20 touches)
  • Mid: 75.88 (2.8% away, 1.03 ATR, 13 touches)
  • Mid: 78.23 (0.2% away, 0.09 ATR, 16 touches)
  • Mid: 79.34 (1.7% away, 0.61 ATR, 19 touches)
  • Mid: 80.32 (2.9% away, 1.08 ATR, 18 touches)

Trends

Evidence

Average earnings surprise
+10.4%
  • May 5, 2026: actual EPS 0.71 vs estimate 0.66 (surprise +7.8%)
  • February 3, 2026: actual EPS 0.87 vs estimate 0.8 (surprise +9.2%)
  • November 4, 2025: actual EPS 0.92 vs estimate 0.85 (surprise +7.9%)
  • August 5, 2025: actual EPS 0.93 vs estimate 0.8 (surprise +16.8%)

Expected move

Drivers

  • Past earnings Positive

    The company has beaten earnings expectations in every quarter for the past year, with an average surprise of +10.4%.

Implied move
+2.2%
Source
Options chain

Reactions over its last 20 earnings

Median move
2%
75th percentile move
4%
90th percentile move
5.2%
Up / down moves
11 / 9
Average up move
+2.4%
Average down move
-2.7%

Monitoring and close

What Archer-Daniels-Midland Company reported

Status
Finished
Actual EPS1.84
EPS estimate1.44
EPS surprise+27.8%
Revenue$23 million
Revenue estimate$21,788 million
Revenue surprise-99.9%

ADM beat Q2 expectations and raised its annual outlook, driven by the biofuels boom. Shares rose over 4%.

Sources (16)

Pre-market second reading after the results

Verdict
Beat expectations

Heading into the open, results beat expectations on earnings but not on revenue, and the price is indicating +3.8% pre-market, a move above the stock's usual reaction (about 2%). The figures overturn the prior pessimistic scenario. Across our market history, in the 1,275 similar cases the close held that direction 86% of the time.

How the stock reacted

Outcome
Missed
Consolidated
+2.3%
Max favorable move (MFE)
0.7%
Max adverse move (MAE)
3.6%