Apple Inc. (AAPL) earnings on July 30, 2026

After the market closes Q2 2026

More Apple Inc. earnings

Prior outlook: Optimistic Outcome: Missed

Apple stock dropped sharply after reporting earnings. The shares fell as much as 10% during the day and ended 7% lower amid market disappointment.

AAPL price around the earnings

308.91

Change: -7.4%

2026-07-31, 20:00 UTC

Start of the measured window End of the measured window
300.08 311.90 323.71 335.53 333.43
Price series around the eventClosing price per minute from before the event to the end of the measured window.No trading (market closed)
July 30, 2026 July 31, 2026
  • Price: green if it ends above the starting price; red if it ends below
  • Start of the measured window
  • End of the measured window
  • Market open
  • No trading (market closed)
  • Starting price
Price series around the event

Prior thesis

Prior outlook: Optimistic Outcome: Missed

Thesis published
Results released

Strong historical beats and trend strength, but analyst target implies downside with recent after a strong recent rise conditions.

Context analyzed before publication

Trend
Stock has seen a strong run-up into earnings, with recent after a strong recent rise conditions and elevated implied volatility.

Analysts

Evidence

Analyst consensus
Buy
Consensus average (1-5)
2.02
Analysts covering the stock
43
Average price target
319.72
Lowest price target
215
Highest price target
400
Upside to price target
-3.9%
Quarterly earnings growth
19.4%
Revenue growth
16.6%
Forward EPS
9.66
Trailing EPS
8.25
Analyst moves in the last 60 days
10
  • Strong buy: 6
  • Buy: 23
  • Hold: 14
  • Sell: 2
  • Strong sell: 2
Strong buy
6
Buy
23
Hold
14
Sell
2
Strong sell
2
  • July 23, 2026 · Morgan Stanley: Maintains rating (Overweight → Overweight)
  • July 17, 2026 · HSBC: Upgrades rating (Hold → Buy)
  • July 14, 2026 · Keybanc: Downgrades rating (Sector Weight → Underweight)
  • July 13, 2026 · Citigroup: Maintains rating (Buy → Buy)
  • June 25, 2026 · Evercore ISI Group: Reiterates rating (Outperform → Outperform)
  • June 22, 2026 · KGI Securities: Downgrades rating (Outperform → Hold)
  • June 18, 2026 · B of A Securities: Reiterates rating (Buy → Buy)
  • June 9, 2026 · TD Cowen: Maintains rating (Buy → Buy)
  • June 9, 2026 · Maxim Group: Maintains rating (Buy → Buy)
  • June 9, 2026 · Rosenblatt: Maintains rating (Neutral → Neutral)

News and sentiment

Evidence

Sentiment
Sentiment
Cautious
Mention volume
Low
Normalized volume
33%
News
Sources (6)

Technicals

Evidence

Price when the context was analyzed
338.23
Average true range (ATR)
2.3%
Distance to 52-week high
-2.1%
14-day change (14d)
+3.3%
30-day change (30d)
+20.1%
30-day relative strength
+28.7%
QQQ change (30d)
-8.6%
Nearest support
337.02
Distance to nearest support
0.4%
Nearest resistance
338.27
Distance to nearest resistance
0%
Volume accumulation ratio (14d / 46d)
0.97
  • Mid: 337.02 (0.4% away, 0.15 ATR, 6 touches)
  • Mid: 334.76 (1% away, 0.44 ATR, 9 touches)
  • Minor: 333.47 (1.4% away, 0.6 ATR, 9 touches)
  • Minor: 338.27 (0% away, 0 ATR, 5 touches)
  • Mid: 339.56 (0.4% away, 0.17 ATR, 7 touches)
  • Minor: 340.72 (0.7% away, 0.32 ATR, 1 touches)

Trends

Evidence

Average earnings surprise
+5.9%
  • April 30, 2026: actual EPS 2.01 vs estimate 1.94 (surprise +3.5%)
  • January 29, 2026: actual EPS 2.84 vs estimate 2.67 (surprise +6.3%)
  • October 30, 2025: actual EPS 1.85 vs estimate 1.77 (surprise +4.5%)
  • July 31, 2025: actual EPS 1.57 vs estimate 1.43 (surprise +9.5%)

Expected move

Implied move
+4.6%
Source
Options chain

Reactions over its last 20 earnings

Median move
2.6%
75th percentile move
3.9%
90th percentile move
6%
Up / down moves
9 / 11
Average up move
+3.9%
Average down move
-1.9%

Monitoring and close

What Apple Inc. reported

Status
Finished
Actual EPS2.02
EPS estimate1.89
EPS surprise+6.9%
Revenue$109,417 million
Revenue estimate$108,651 million
Revenue surprise+0.7%

Apple reported Q3 earnings that beat estimates with EPS of $2.02 and revenue of $109.4 billion. iPhone sales jumped 22%, but shares fell 4% after-hours on weak Q4 guidance.

Sources (50)

Pre-market second reading after the results

Verdict
Beat expectations

Heading into the open, results beat expectations on both earnings and revenue, and the price is indicating -7.6% pre-market, a move 3x the stock's usual reaction (about 3%). The figures overturn the prior optimistic scenario. In the 720 similar cases in our market history, the close held that direction 96% of the time.

How the stock reacted

Outcome
Missed
Consolidated
-7.3%
Max favorable move (MFE)
1.7%
Max adverse move (MAE)
10%