Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP) earnings on July 29, 2026

ADP price around the earnings

273.37

Change: +3.2%

Start of the measured window End of the measured window

254.55 263.20 271.86 280.51 264.98

July 29, 2026

Price: green if it ends above the starting price; red if it ends below
Start of the measured window
End of the measured window
Market open
Starting price

Price series around the event

Prior thesis

Prior outlook: No statistical edge

Thesis published: 2026-07-29, 09:59 UTC
Results released: 2026-07-29, 10:58 UTC

Strong trend strength and strong recent earnings beat history, but analyst Hold consensus with -2.8% upside and price near resistance create sell-the-news risk.

Context analyzed before publication

Trend: Volatile trajectory with 7/28 dip (-8.0) and 7/29 recovery (14.2); price near resistance contexts crowding exhaustion.

Analysts

Evidence

Analyst consensus: Hold
Consensus average (1-5): 2.67
Analysts covering the stock: 15
Average price target: 256.87
Lowest price target: 190
Highest price target: 305
Upside to price target: -2.8%
Quarterly earnings growth: 8.8%
Revenue growth: 7%
Forward EPS: 12.2
Trailing EPS: 11.1
Analyst moves in the last 60 days: 6

Strong buy: 1
Buy: 4
Hold: 11
Sell: 1
Strong sell: 1

Strong buy: 1
Buy: 4
Hold: 11
Sell: 1
Strong sell: 1

July 22, 2026 · UBS: Maintains rating (Neutral → Neutral)
July 22, 2026 · Cantor Fitzgerald: Maintains rating (Overweight → Overweight)
July 21, 2026 · Guggenheim: Reiterates rating (Buy → Buy)
July 9, 2026 · Wells Fargo: Maintains rating (Equal-Weight → Equal-Weight)
July 8, 2026 · Stifel: Maintains rating (Hold → Hold)
July 6, 2026 · TD Cowen: Maintains rating (Hold → Hold)

News and sentiment

Evidence

Sentiment

Sentiment: Constructive
Mention volume: Low
Normalized volume: 33%

News

Sources (6)

UBS Maintains Neutral on Automatic Data Processing, Raises Price Target to $270 (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga
Cantor Fitzgerald Maintains Overweight on Automatic Data Processing, Raises Price Target to $295 (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga
Guggenheim Reiterates Buy on Automatic Data Processing, Maintains $270 Price Target (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga
Wells Fargo Maintains Equal-Weight on Automatic Data Processing, Raises Price Target to $248 (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga
Stifel Maintains Hold on Automatic Data Processing, Raises Price Target to $260 (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga
TD Cowen Maintains Hold on Automatic Data Processing, Raises Price Target to $223 (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga

Technicals

Evidence

Price when the context was analyzed: 264.51
Average true range (ATR): 2.9%
Distance to 52-week high: -15.7%
14-day change (14d): +7.3%
30-day change (32d): +18.3%
30-day relative strength: +22.6%
QQQ change (32d): -4.3%
Nearest support: 262.1
Distance to nearest support: 0.9%
Nearest resistance: 264.53
Distance to nearest resistance: 0%
Volume accumulation ratio (14d / 46d): 0.87

Major: 262.1 (0.9% away, 0.31 ATR, 29 touches)
Major: 260.04 (1.7% away, 0.58 ATR, 40 touches)
Major: 258.8 (2.2% away, 0.74 ATR, 44 touches)

Mid: 264.53 (0% away, 0 ATR, 17 touches)
Mid: 266.33 (0.7% away, 0.24 ATR, 12 touches)
Mid: 267.93 (1.3% away, 0.45 ATR, 17 touches)

Trends

Evidence

Average earnings surprise: +1.9%

April 29, 2026: actual EPS 3.37 vs estimate 3.3 (surprise +2.3%)
January 28, 2026: actual EPS 2.62 vs estimate 2.57 (surprise +2.0%)
October 29, 2025: actual EPS 2.49 vs estimate 2.44 (surprise +1.9%)
July 30, 2025: actual EPS 2.26 vs estimate 2.23 (surprise +1.5%)

Expected move

Implied move: +4.1%
Source: Options chain

Reactions over its last 20 earnings

Median move: 2%
75th percentile move: 5.7%
90th percentile move: 8.1%
Up / down moves: 12 / 8
Average up move: +3.0%
Average down move: -4.1%

Monitoring and close

What Automatic Data Processing, Inc. reported

Status: Finished

Actual EPS	2.64
EPS estimate	2.6
EPS surprise	+1.5%
Revenue	$5,474 million
Revenue estimate	$5,437 million
Revenue surprise	+0.7%

ADP reported better-than-expected Q4 earnings with robust financial performance. The company highlighted AI and technology advancements, despite PEO margin challenges and foreign exchange impacts.

Sources (13)

Automatic Data Processing Inc (ADP) Q4 2026 Earnings Call Highlights: Strong Revenue Growth and ... (opens in a new tab) — GuruFocus.com
Automatic Data Processing, Inc. Q4 2026 Earnings Call Summary (opens in a new tab) — Moby
Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP) Q4 2026 Earnings Call Transcript (opens in a new tab) — SeekingAlpha
Automatic Data Processing Q4 Earnings Call Highlights (opens in a new tab) — MarketBeat
ADP (ADP) Q4 Earnings: Taking a Look at Key Metrics Versus Estimates (opens in a new tab) — Zacks
Automatic Data Processing (NASDAQ:ADP) Reports In-Line Fiscal Q4 Results, Stock Rises (opens in a new tab) — ChartMill
Automatic Data Processing (ADP) Tops Q4 Earnings and Revenue Estimates (opens in a new tab) — Zacks
ADP’s (NASDAQ:ADP) Q2 CY2026 Sales Beat Estimates (opens in a new tab) — StockStory
ADP Targets More Gains Ahead After Quarterly Growth (opens in a new tab) — The Wall Street Journal
Automatic Data Processing Sees FY2027 GAAP EPS $12.14-$12.36 vs $12.21 Est (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga
Automatic Data Processing Sees FY2027 Adj EPS $12.12-$12.34 vs $12.20 Est; Sees Sales $23.044B-$23.264B vs $23.190B Est (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga
ADP reported adjusted earnings of $2.64 per share, beating the $2.60 estimate, and revenue of $5.474B, above the $5.437B forecast. — Benzinga
Automatic Data Processing Q4 Adj. EPS $2.64 Beats $2.60 Estimate, Sales $5.474B Beat $5.437B Estimate (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga

Pre-market second reading after the results

Verdict: Beat expectations

Heading into the open, the figures don't clearly confirm the prior scenario.

How the stock reacted

Consolidated: +3.5%
Max move: +5.9%

No verdict: the outlook took no direction, so there is nothing to score as a hit or a miss.