Walmart Inc. (WMT) earnings on May 21, 2026
Prior outlook: No statistical edge
Walmart's stock declined due to revenue challenges from pharmacy pricing, even though sales growth was reported. The market reacted negatively to these headwinds.
WMT price around the earnings
121.93
Change: -7.0%
2026-05-22, 00:00 UTC
- Price: green if it ends above the starting price; red if it ends below
- Start of the measured window
- End of the measured window
- Market open
- Starting price
Prior thesis
Prior outlook: No statistical edge
- Thesis published
Modest upside, mixed results, inconsistent history.
While comparable sales increased, revenue was impacted by pharmacy pricing issues, and analysts project only modest upside despite strong buy ratings. The company's earnings history is also inconsistent.
Context analyzed before publication
- Summary
- Defensive stock with a modestly optimistic scenario, but inconsistent earnings.
- Reasoning
- This retailer is considered defensive, with analysts citing a modestly optimistic scenario. However, its earnings performance has been inconsistent, and recent price action shows weakening momentum.
- Playbook
- The stock has defensive qualities and a stability profile. The scenario after earnings may provide a clearer reading on performance.
- Trend
- Momentum shifted from positive to negative; stock range-bound.
Analysts
Drivers
-
Analysts
Positive
A large number of analysts maintain buy ratings, indicating broad support. However, the mean price target suggests modest upside, limiting potential for large gains.
Evidence
- Analyst consensus
- Strong buy
- Consensus average (1-5)
- 1.44
- Analysts covering the stock
- 41
- Average price target
- 137.78
- Lowest price target
- 62
- Highest price target
- 150
- Upside to price target
- 5.3%
- Quarterly earnings growth
- -19.4%
- Revenue growth
- 5.6%
- Forward EPS
- 3.29
- Trailing EPS
- 2.66
- Analyst moves in the last 60 days
- 6
- Strong buy: 9
- Buy: 30
- Hold: 3
- Sell: 1
- Strong sell: 0
- Strong buy
- 9
- Buy
- 30
- Hold
- 3
- Sell
- 1
- Strong sell
- 0
- May 15, 2026 · Piper Sandler: Maintains rating (Overweight → Overweight)
- May 11, 2026 · Wolfe Research: Maintains rating (Outperform → Outperform)
- May 7, 2026 · TD Cowen: Maintains rating (Buy → Buy)
- May 6, 2026 · BTIG: Maintains rating (Buy → Buy)
- April 22, 2026 · Morgan Stanley: Maintains rating (Overweight → Overweight)
- April 13, 2026 · Guggenheim: Maintains rating (Buy → Buy)
News and sentiment
Drivers
-
News & sentiment
Neutral
Comments about gas prices potentially boosting customer traffic are speculative before official results. There is some positive sentiment among retail investors, but it lacks strong institutional backing.
Evidence
Sentiment
- Sentiment
- Constructive
- Mention volume
- Low
- Normalized volume
- 33%
News
Sources (7)
- Walmart Q1 Preview: Earnings Could Show Impact Of 'Tighter Budgets Amid Surging Gas Prices' — Benzinga
- How To Earn $500 A Month From Walmart Stock Ahead Of Q1 Earnings — Benzinga
- Semi And Options Mania Collide With Bond Rout Ahead Of Earnings From Nvidia, Home Depot, Walmart — Benzinga
- If You Invested $100 In Walmart Stock 5 Years Ago, You Would Have This Much Today — Benzinga
- Walmart Stock Hits Key Resistance As Valuation Concerns Creep Up Ahead Of Earnings — Benzinga
- Consumers Are Feeling The Squeeze — And That Could Be Walmart's Biggest Advantage — Benzinga
- Piper Sandler Maintains Overweight on Walmart, Raises Price Target to $137 — Benzinga
Technicals
Drivers
-
Technical
Neutral
While recent price momentum has weakened, the longer-term trend is still positive. The stock is market review within a narrow price range, indicating a balance between buyers and sellers.
Evidence
- Average true range (ATR)
- 2.1%
- Distance to 52-week high
- -3.2%
- 14-day change (14d)
- -0.7%
- 30-day change (30d)
- +2.9%
- 30-day relative strength
- +2.9%
- Benchmark change (0d)
- +0.0%
- Nearest support
- 130.47
- Nearest resistance
- 130.94
- Volume accumulation ratio (14d / 46d)
- 2.76
Trends
Evidence
- Average earnings surprise
- -1.6%
- February 19, 2026: actual EPS 0.74 vs estimate 0.73 (surprise +1.8%)
- November 20, 2025: actual EPS 0.62 vs estimate 0.6 (surprise +3.1%)
- August 21, 2025: actual EPS 0.68 vs estimate 0.74 (surprise -8.0%)
- May 15, 2025: actual EPS 0.56 vs estimate 0.58 (surprise -3.3%)
Expected move
Drivers
-
Past earnings
Negative
The company has only beaten earnings expectations half the time, and on average, its performance has been slightly below what analysts outlined. This suggests inconsistent results.
There is no implied-move data available for this event.
Reactions over its last 19 earnings
- Median move
- 3.9%
- 75th percentile move
- 6.6%
- 90th percentile move
- 7.2%
- Up / down moves
- 10 / 9
- Average up move
- +4.4%
- Average down move
- -4.1%
Monitoring and close
What Walmart Inc. reported
There is no monitoring data available for this event.
Pre-market second reading after the results
There is no second reading available for this event.
How the stock reacted
- Consolidated
- -7.2%
- Max move
- -8.2%
No verdict: the outlook took no direction, so there is nothing to score as a hit or a miss.