NIKE, Inc. (NKE) earnings on October 1, 2026

After the market closes Q2 2026

More NIKE, Inc. earnings

Prior outlook: Pessimistic Outcome: Accurate

Nike's stock dropped sharply after the company released its quarterly results, falling as much as 10.9% during the day before closing 3.6% lower. Several analysts kept their neutral ratings but reduced their price targets for the stock.

NKE price around the earnings

33.87

Change: -3.6%

2026-10-02, 20:00 UTC

Start of the measured window End of the measured window
31.35 32.93 34.51 36.09 35.15
Price series around the eventClosing price per minute from before the event to the end of the measured window.No trading (market closed)
October 1, 2026 October 2, 2026
  • Price: green if it ends above the starting price; red if it ends below
  • Start of the measured window
  • End of the measured window
  • Market open
  • No trading (market closed)
  • Starting price
Price series around the event

Prior thesis

Prior outlook: Pessimistic Outcome: Accurate

Thesis published
Results released

Pessimistic scenario

Technical weakness drove the pessimistic outlook — the stock sits at 13-year lows and has significantly underperformed the broader market recently. Analysts maintain a neutral stance with a $46 price target, but the structural downtrend outweighed that caution.

Context analyzed before publication

Summary
Pessimistic scenario
Playbook
The stock cases 54% below its 52-week high and has dropped 9.43% over the past month while the broader market barely moved. Multiple analysts cut their price targets this week, and earnings have shown extreme volatility in recent quarters.
Trend
Opinion shifted sharply from neutral to very negative

Analysts

Drivers

  • Analysts Neutral

    Analysts recommend holding with a $46 price target, about 28% above current levels. Some analysts recently shifted to neutral.

Evidence

Analyst consensus
Hold
Consensus average (1-5)
2.76
Analysts covering the stock
36
Average price target
45.63
Lowest price target
23
Highest price target
94
Upside to price target
28%
Quarterly earnings growth
406.6%
Revenue growth
-1.1%
Forward EPS
2.16
Trailing EPS
2.13
Analyst moves in the last 60 days
10
  • Strong buy: 1
  • Buy: 9
  • Hold: 26
  • Sell: 3
  • Strong sell: 3
Strong buy
1
Buy
9
Hold
26
Sell
3
Strong sell
3
  • September 29, 2026 · RBC Capital: Maintains rating (Sector Perform → Sector Perform)
  • September 28, 2026 · Deutsche Bank: Maintains rating (Hold → Hold)
  • September 28, 2026 · Piper Sandler: Maintains rating (Neutral → Neutral)
  • September 28, 2026 · Evercore ISI Group: Maintains rating (In-Line → In-Line)
  • September 25, 2026 · B of A Securities: Downgrades rating (Neutral → Underperform)
  • September 23, 2026 · Oppenheimer: Maintains rating (Outperform → Outperform)
  • September 23, 2026 · Barclays: Maintains rating (Overweight → Overweight)
  • September 23, 2026 · BTIG: Reiterates rating (Buy → Buy)
  • September 22, 2026 · StoneX: Initiates coverage (Hold)
  • September 21, 2026 · Stifel: Maintains rating (Hold → Hold)

News and sentiment

Evidence

Sentiment
Sentiment
Constructive
Mention volume
High
Normalized volume
99%
Messages
30
News
Sources (6)

Technicals

Drivers

  • Technical Negative

    The stock dropped 9.43% over the past month while the broader market barely moved, market review 54% below its highest point in the past year.

Evidence

Price when the context was analyzed
35.38
Average true range (ATR)
2.6%
Distance to 52-week high
-50.6%
14-day change (14d)
-1.2%
30-day change (30d)
-9.4%
30-day relative strength
-8.8%
SPY change (30d)
-0.6%
Nearest support
35.38
Distance to nearest support
0%
Nearest resistance
35.51
Distance to nearest resistance
0.4%
Volume accumulation ratio (14d / 46d)
1.51
  • Mid: 35.38 (0% away, 0 ATR, 7 touches)
  • Mid: 35.14 (0.7% away, 0.26 ATR, 8 touches)
  • Minor: 35.51 (0.4% away, 0.14 ATR, 2 touches)
  • Mid: 35.76 (1.1% away, 0.42 ATR, 15 touches)
  • Mid: 35.94 (1.6% away, 0.61 ATR, 19 touches)

Trends

Evidence

Average earnings surprise
+153.3%
  • June 30, 2026: actual EPS 0.72 vs estimate 0.13 (surprise +466.1%)
  • March 31, 2026: actual EPS 0.35 vs estimate 0.28 (surprise +24.3%)
  • December 18, 2025: actual EPS 0.53 vs estimate 0.38 (surprise +41.3%)
  • September 30, 2025: actual EPS 0.49 vs estimate 0.27 (surprise +81.3%)

Expected move

Drivers

  • Past earnings Neutral

    Last quarter showed a massive earnings beat, but prior quarters had significant drops after reporting. The stock typically moves about 11% around earnings.

Implied move
+11.4%
Source
Options chain

Reactions over its last 20 earnings

Median move
6.8%
75th percentile move
11.9%
90th percentile move
15.2%
Up / down moves
7 / 13
Average up move
+7.7%
Average down move
-8.5%

Monitoring and close

What NIKE, Inc. reported

Status
Finished
Actual EPS0.48
EPS estimate0.44
EPS surprise+9.1%
Revenue$11,213 million
Revenue estimate$11,326 million
Revenue surprise-1.0%

Nike shares fell up to 9.7% after announcing job cuts and a $2.5B restructuring. UBS and Telsey lowered price targets to $34 and $35, respectively.

Sources (50)

Pre-market second reading after the results

Verdict
Beat expectations

Heading into the open, Results beat expectations on earnings but not on revenue and the price is indicating -7.2% pre-market, a move in line with the stock's usual reaction (about 7%). The figures confirm the pessimistic scenario. Across our market history, in the 761 similar cases the close held that direction 96% of the time.

How the stock reacted

Outcome
Accurate
Consolidated
-3.6%
Max favorable move (MFE)
10.9%
Max adverse move (MAE)
1.4%