Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) earnings on August 4, 2026

Before the market opens Q2 2026

More Marathon Petroleum Corporation earnings

Prior outlook: Optimistic Outcome: Accurate

Marathon Petroleum beat earnings and sales estimates, helped by a strong refining environment, and the stock rose nearly 2%.

MPC price around the earnings

312.61

Change: +1.8%

2026-08-04, 20:00 UTC

Start of the measured window End of the measured window
295.68 301.99 308.30 314.61 307.03
Price series around the eventClosing price per minute from before the event to the end of the measured window.No trading (market closed)
August 4, 2026
  • Price: green if it ends above the starting price; red if it ends below
  • Start of the measured window
  • End of the measured window
  • Market open
  • No trading (market closed)
  • Starting price
Price series around the event

Prior thesis

Prior outlook: Optimistic Outcome: Accurate

Thesis published
Results released

Optimistic but price already high

Experts see strong past earnings and oil prices near $100 as positives, but the stock already cases above the average analyst target, so the scenario may be limited.

Context analyzed before publication

Summary
Optimistic but price already high
Playbook
The stock has risen sharply recently, and both the setup and market sentiment are positive, though the price has moved past what analysts typically expect.
Trend
Expert outlook improved sharply over five days

Analysts

Drivers

  • Analysts Negative

    Although analysts rate the stock as a buy, the current price already exceeds their average target, suggesting a limited optimistic scenario.

Evidence

Analyst consensus
Buy
Consensus average (1-5)
2.33
Analysts covering the stock
18
Average price target
303.89
Lowest price target
186
Highest price target
376
Upside to price target
-1%
Revenue growth
8.8%
Forward EPS
27.77
Trailing EPS
15.19
Analyst moves in the last 60 days
8
  • Strong buy: 3
  • Buy: 6
  • Hold: 7
  • Sell: 1
  • Strong sell: 1
Strong buy
3
Buy
6
Hold
7
Sell
1
Strong sell
1
  • July 22, 2026 · Goldman Sachs: Maintains rating (Buy → Buy)
  • July 21, 2026 · TD Cowen: Maintains rating (Buy → Buy)
  • July 14, 2026 · Citigroup: Maintains rating (Neutral → Neutral)
  • July 13, 2026 · Evercore ISI Group: Maintains rating (In-Line → In-Line)
  • July 13, 2026 · Raymond James: Maintains rating (Outperform → Outperform)
  • July 13, 2026 · Barclays: Maintains rating (Overweight → Overweight)
  • June 29, 2026 · TD Cowen: Maintains rating (Buy → Buy)
  • June 12, 2026 · Morgan Stanley: Maintains rating (Overweight → Overweight)

News and sentiment

Drivers

  • News & sentiment Positive

    Oil prices hitting $100 and supportive energy policy news are helping the sector, and an analyst upgrade adds to the positive mood.

Evidence

Sentiment
Sentiment
Constructive
Mention volume
High
Normalized volume
99%
News
Sources (5)

Technicals

Drivers

  • Technical Positive

    The stock's recent price trend is much stronger than the broader market, showing clear outperformance over the past month.

Evidence

Price when the context was analyzed
307.3
Average true range (ATR)
2.8%
Distance to 52-week high
-1.0%
14-day change (14d)
-2.5%
30-day change (32d)
+15.4%
30-day relative strength
+13.7%
SPY change (32d)
+1.7%
Nearest support
305.67
Distance to nearest support
0.5%
Nearest resistance
307.47
Distance to nearest resistance
0.1%
Volume accumulation ratio (14d / 46d)
1.04
  • Mid: 305.67 (0.5% away, 0.19 ATR, 13 touches)
  • Mid: 303.49 (1.2% away, 0.44 ATR, 11 touches)
  • Minor: 300.03 (2.4% away, 0.84 ATR, 5 touches)
  • Mid: 307.47 (0.1% away, 0.02 ATR, 14 touches)
  • Mid: 311.17 (1.3% away, 0.45 ATR, 16 touches)
  • Minor: 313 (1.9% away, 0.66 ATR, 6 touches)

Trends

Evidence

Average earnings surprise
+47.2%
  • May 5, 2026: actual EPS 1.65 vs estimate 0.75 (surprise +120.6%)
  • February 3, 2026: actual EPS 4.07 vs estimate 2.71 (surprise +50.1%)
  • November 4, 2025: actual EPS 3.01 vs estimate 3.16 (surprise -4.9%)
  • August 5, 2025: actual EPS 3.96 vs estimate 3.22 (surprise +23.0%)

Expected move

Drivers

  • Past earnings Positive

    The company beat earnings expectations in 3 out of 4 recent quarters, with an average surprise of +47.2%, showing strong and consistent performance.

Implied move
+2.5%
Source
Options chain

Reactions over its last 20 earnings

Median move
3.8%
75th percentile move
6.1%
90th percentile move
6.2%
Up / down moves
14 / 6
Average up move
+3.9%
Average down move
-4.5%

Monitoring and close

What Marathon Petroleum Corporation reported

Status
Finished
Actual EPS17.73
EPS estimate13.73
EPS surprise+29.1%
Revenue$52,337 million
Revenue estimate$42,078 million
Revenue surprise+24.4%

Marathon Petroleum reported Q2 results with $8.5 billion adjusted EBITDA and increased shareholder returns, building on prior beat of EPS and revenue expectations.

Sources (8)

Pre-market second reading after the results

Verdict
Beat expectations

Heading into the open, the results beat expectations on both earnings and revenue, and the price is indicating -1.7% pre-market, a move below the stock's usual reaction (about 4%). The figures don't confirm the prior scenario: the price move doesn't follow the direction the results point to.

How the stock reacted

Outcome
Accurate
Consolidated
+1.8%
Max favorable move (MFE)
2.6%
Max adverse move (MAE)
3.7%